Kenyan Olympic team - What now?

kenya team wrote:

Kirui, Kipsang, Makau.

Not picking a guy who broke the WR less than a year before the games would be a disgrace.

I see your point.

But after Kipsangs run in London it made me totally rethink what the WR represents. Kipsang had missed it by 4 seconds last year. Yet most people considered him the 6th guy on the Kenyan list.

4 seconds over 26.2 miles is nothing. Especially where there are different conditions and courses involved. If Kipsang had run 5 seconds faster last year in some people's minds he would be #1 on the list instead of #6.

For that reason I say G Mutai over Makau. with Kirui.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

@running_comment wrote:

Dingdingding! Winning post!

They are inconsistent, capricious and frankly spiteful. They make USATF look good, which is no small feat.

There is plenty wrong w/ USATF but we have the fairest, most transparent system for selecting athletes for World Champs and Olympics. Remember that any time somebody proposes any kind of selection system.

It's certainly transparent. You can argue about "fairness" - suppose some great athlete is injured on the day of the trials - is it "fair" that they miss out on the Olympics?

Also you don't question whether it actually selects the best team. Just considering performance on one day can throw up some odd results - your best guys might be injured or ill on the day of the trials; or fall over; or just have an off day.

Of course any system will have good points and bad points, but no system is perfect.

I suspect that the US system is the way it is because it's a highly litigious society and the clear and simple trials system provides reasonable protection from being sued by people who don't get a slot.

i hope AK chooses emmanuel mutai kipsang and kirui. kirui is 2 time world champion kipsang won london marathon 2012 and mutai made course record in london which not even kipsang could improve it.

The US has had a history of leaving off good athletes who had bad days.

The '92 team left off '91 World Champions Carl Lewis and Dan Obrien and O'Brien went on to break the WR that year.

Jim Spivey, '87 WC medalist was left off the '88 team when he placed 4th but went on to set a US born 1500 record that year.

In 2008 Webb would have been selected if we didn't have a Trials but it turned out that he wasn't so fit that year and he was raced off the team.

The US Trials is really a prelim round.

If you mess up in the prelim, you don't get to the next round.

2007 World Champ Lagat made the 2008 US team but did not make it past the Olympic semis. They weren't just going to put him in the finals because he was reigning World Champ. He had to make it through the rounds.

You need to race yourself to a Championship.

And you can't get there on past achievements because it is a new year. Last year was last year.

Any athlete that is world class deserves the chance to race their way to the Olympics.

There are half a dozen Kenyans that ran 2:05 last year along with all of the sub 2:10 guys who are not even given a chance to compete for the Olympic team.

That's just wrong.

Well, for sure fairness is a philosophical term, so you can look at our system and argue if you wish. However, when you compare it to real world application then I ahve no doubt that it is better and fairer than systems which have a "selection" component. Selection just opens up systems to favoritism and corruption.

We have seen huge debates about appeals just for s shot at the trials--can you imagine the howls and protests if John Chaplin was deciding spots on the team instead of which B qualifiers get to compete?

Jurgis Rudkus wrote:

I think Kirui blew his chances with a bad fade today. The rationale for picking him was that he would have had a faster PR had he not chosen World Championships over fast fall marathons. He shows up today in the "most competitive marathon in the world" and pops a 2:08. That's not gonna cut it against the Ethiopians.

3. I say Makau, hard to overlook a WR holder, even if Kipsang may have proved its a softer record. I'm not 100% sure why he dropped out today though- if he has potential injury issues, I would say Mosop should take this slot- CR at Chicago, only six seconds behind G. Mutai in the second fastest marathon ever, and a 2:05-flat in semi-windy conditions.

Did you watch London or read the recap?

I'm fearful that AK will go by results only and not take into account all of one's performances. Kirui's run in London wasn't given justice by his finishing time.

I do think it's hard to overlook the WR holder as well but should it be? I mean there are two others who have run faster than him and one that has run within 4-seconds of him.

The London Olympic course will be about racing - not time trailing and the course has a ton of turns.

I think it should be Kipsang for sure.

God it's really impossible. I mean what did e. mutai do that was so bad.

Kipsang and then put some names in a hat. G. Mutai, E. Mutai, Makau and Kirui. Pick two and say it was god's choice.

WR is over rated. If those other guys had been in Berlin with nice conditions they would have it too.

WC is over rated here. It is second rate competition because no marathoner cares about it.

If AK goes on recent results they should pick Kipsang Lel Mosop.

But G.Mutai was too good last year to leave out and Mosop is faster than Lel now (probably).

Don't even think about Lel, he will never be picked.

Lel has always been dogged with this or that injury, and especially after a great Marathon race, it is risky to expect Lel to run at best in the next two to three months. Based on that history, I think he won't be picked.

Geoffrey Mutai on the other hand has one DNS and one DNF. He couldn't start RAK half this February because of a nagging foot injury, and DNFed Boston Marathon. AK would hardly over look that.

As for Abel, he won his Barcelona half marathon before fading in London, but finished in a decent position.

As for Patrick Makau, he DNFed because of an injury. Probably a hamstring nerve that started when doing his last long run in Kenya

The most logical selection would be:

1. Wilson Kipsang

2. Abel Kirui

3. Moses Mosop

Reserve

Patrick Makau

However, AK would need to see Patrick Makau's training. If Patrick can get back to his form soon, then Mosop should be the reserve.

* wrote:

So let's pretend this past week was a trials to see who is the fittest right now.

Obviously Kipsang is the top and makes the team.

G Mutai and Makau DNF so they are out.

Kirui has a leg up on E Mutai by barely beating him head to head.

So it's a matter of determining if Mosop's Rotterdam performance is better than Kirui in London.

No objective way of comparing two separate races.

Mosop appeared to have a better performance than Kirui but to me he loses points by choosing a lesser marathon.

So if you have to choose from the pre-selected six I would say it would be:

Kipsang, Mosop and Kirui with a good argument for E Mutai over Mosop.

And it looks like they are going with Kipsang, Mosop and Kirui according to another thread.

Like I said (but I really had no idea which way AK would really go or what logic they would use)

Dont feel bad for anybody left off the Kenyan team , deals for fall marathons are being done now , big bucks for all !

Sure they they want to be on Oly team , agents are smiling though , money , money ,money !

You guessed right Kenyano, I hope you are not one of AK officials, ARe YOu? the verdict is out and its KIpsang, Kirui and Mosop.