Will a woman ever run a 4 minute mile?

So in closing the top women milers in the world aren't much better than the best high school milers in the US.

genetherapy wrote:

As long as the next Castor Semenya adopts enough female touches to hide the truth, like many top-tier "female" athletes. See: Morgan Uceny

You are mental.

Hall Monitors wrote:

Why didn't Dibaba and Defar run any 1500m or Mile at their prime?

First, Defar ran 4:02 two years ago. Second, it's the same reason why Gebrselassie didn't run the 1500m more often, even though he's the second fastest indoor runner in history: he was the best in the world at 5000m and 10000m and that's what's important back home. There's no doubt they couldn't run faster. Dibaba covered the last 1500m of her 5000m WR in something like 4:06. They're both worth about 3:56 at their best.

Here are all the videos I can find on the Chinese performances.

Qu's 1500 WR:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuOSbU4N-AE

Wang's 10k WR:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woCO3f0paE8

Wang's stuttgart 10k - with a crazy 2:43 closing 10k:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0IytBXo6HE

Stuttgart 1500m with a ridiculous 1:57 closing 800. Most dominant w1500 in history?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY3qHznwxB0

Stuttgart 3k - 1:59 closing 800. Again, its not about the times they run but the way in which they run them.

Barcelona 1992 w1500: Qu's first race at senior level outside China. Won bronze and set a then-WJR. Still the youngest medalist in the event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBhCnM_V6yw&feature=related

Qu Yunxia interview (2parts) Intersperced with footage of WR performance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU33ARQzQTQ

No doubt these women were the best in the world and capable of bettering the records that proceeded them.

But the numbers get a litle whacky.

In that Stuttgart 10K where Wang crushed everyone she hit the 9600m in 29:48. That's 17s slower than her WR and she still had one lap to go.

The 1500m record is the one record on it's own that doesn't look too crazy - until you see that first 300m.

toro wrote:

No doubt these women were the best in the world and capable of bettering the records that proceeded them.

But the numbers get a litle whacky.

In that Stuttgart 10K where Wang crushed everyone she hit the 9600m in 29:48. That's 17s slower than her WR and she still had one lap to go.

The 1500m record is the one record on it's own that doesn't look too crazy - until you see that first 300m.

True, but Wang closed the final km in 2:43 and ran the most nonchalent 60 second final lap I've ever seen. And Liu Dong closed her "slow" 4:00.5 race with a 1:57 FINAL 800! And Qu Yunxia ran a 1:59 final 800 in the 3k to bulldoze an 8:40+ time to an 8:28

We've come to associate <60 second final laps in middle and long distance events as highly impressive. Well, thse girls were running SUB 2 MINUTE closing 800s in the stuttgart races.

Of course you're jot going to see a WR in a championship meet, but if anything the stutgart performances legitimize the chinese world records. The question, as ever, is of these girls were on drugs or not.

But Wang Allegedly closed her 29:31 in 8:21 which is 3:47 per kilo and a would-be 3K WR.

So she closed similar to her WC performance but at an extended pace.

Then she runs an 8:12 an 8:06 and 3:51 to finish the week.

Plus 5 women under the 3K WR in one race.

Plus the impossible uneven pacing in the WR 1500.

Any one race seems almost explainable with these great athletes.

It's the cummulative evidence that puts each one in doubt.

The Stuttgart blazing kicks do not legitimize performnaces at another venue where the times were much faster.

Wang actually covered the final 3k in 8:17 - even crazier!

Here's a report of the 1993 games form someone who was supposedly there; also has ALL the results from that meet, including the mediocre mens results.

The men's 1500 was won in an embaressing 3:48!

http://www.betterhealthchoices.com/cordyceps8.html

I don't blame you for your incredulity - it was a crazy, crazy week.

joe9090 wrote:

So in closing the top women milers in the world aren't much better than the best high school milers in the US.

actually no, they are worse.

This Will Work! wrote:

If a sprinter like Allison felix that has 49-50 second 400 speed, works on her endurance she could easily do it!

marion jones is really the best bet at being able to do it

For these kinds of questions, we can compare a 4:00 mile to other race "equivalent" performances, and their respective current world records. Plugging this into my favorite Purdy calculator, for various race distances:

1 mile: 4:00 < 4:12.56

1500m: 3:41.44 < 3:50.46

800m: 1:46.98 < 1:53.28

3000m: 7:59.71 < 8:06.11

5000m: 13:51.56 < 14:11.15

10000m: 29:01.94 < 29:31.78

semi: 1:04:26 < 1:05:50

mar.: 2:15:19.9 < 2:15:24.6

As you can see, the "equivalent" performances are "miles" ahead (ha ha) of the current world records for all distances across the board, except for the marathon.

The closest comparison would be the more often contested 1500m, and the equivalent 4:00 mile comparison is now only 9 seconds faster than the world record performance of the turtle blood influenced time of Yunxia Qu.

When you look at the other distances, we see no world record holding Kenyan, Russian, Czechoslovakian, or Chinese athletes, have even come close to approaching the equivalent performances. Even the American sprinter Florence Griffith-Joyner still falls short. (Well her 100m comes close: 10:22<10:49).

The only women who comes close is Paula Radcliffe's marathon performance of 2:15:24.6, which is still some 5 seconds slower than the Purdy calculation. (The reverse "Purdy" calculation gives a 4:00.13 mile!!!)

But there are a few points to consider:

- The marathon is not the mile, in terms of requirements of qualities like speed versus stamina versus endurance.

- Of all the "suspect" Chinese and/or "Eastern" performances, only one women has come close: Paula Radcliffe, and she still falls a little short

- Organizations like the ARRS don't count Paula's time of 2:15, and only consider her 3rd best 2:17:42 as the world record (presumably because the other performances were "mixed" with male escorts, giving her a potential long term advantage -- although she denies she received that kind of support from the men.)

- So if we follow their lead, or eliminate Paula as a single outlier, and substitute Lilya Shubokova's time of 2:18:20, this comes in line with all the other performances.

So before we see a 4:00 mile from a women (something not often contested), I predict we will have to start seeing a few of these other gaps shrinking too, at distances much closer to the mile than the marathon.

Or it takes one outlier, like Paula, who has the natural speed to achieve in the mile, what Paula had the stamina to do in the marathon.

Hmmm. Purdy suggests a 46.39 speed for 400m. Neither Marion Jones, nor Allison Felix, nor even Marita Koch managed that.

macbook bro wrote:

marion jones is really the best bet at being able to do it

This Will Work! wrote:

If a sprinter like Allison felix that has 49-50 second 400 speed, works on her endurance she could easily do it!

Women should be just under 4:10 very soon. But a woman has to believe she can do it first.

My guess that a woman is not capable, you would need about 1:48-1:50 speed to do that. WR Times have been asymptotically approaching a limit for the past 30 years. The closest female to that ability in recent times is probably pamela jelimo.

As for Wang Junxia, she was clearly one of the best all around female athletes of all time. The turtles blood that coach ma was feeding them probably had EPO in it though, but the athletes probably didnt knowingly dope..

There will definitely be a woman who runs sub4 at some point. "She" will not have been born a woman, though.

Slice it off wrote:

There will definitely be a woman who runs sub4 at some point. "She" will not have been born a woman, though.

Male to female transexuals will run slower than an equivalent woman because they still have a male skeletal structure but no longer have the testosterone that men would normally use.

puck wrote:

I think a woman could run a 4 minute mile but it would be the equivalent of a man running like a sub 26 10k; possible but highly unlikely.

What a stupid comment. How can you know it's possible?

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

The problem is, it's so on the edge of human limits that we can never be sure from now unto the future if a top mark is clean or performance enhanced. If the prestige and money is there (that is necessary to motivate people to work so hard to those limits), then so too will the insane programmes of doping.

That having been said, if some arbitrary billionaire were to arrange costly, prolonged, absurd financial incentives for a new women's outdoor mile and 1500m world record, we might see the equivalent of a sub 4:00 mile within 10 years. Otherwise, not much is going to change at the top of the all-time list without that. Too little prestige, too much money and non-monetary incentives elsewhere (in road racing, and in non-running pursuits).

puck wrote:

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

It was run by a Russian. I don't know if it's a legit record...

I think a woman could run a 4 minute mile but it would be the equivalent of a man running like a sub 26 10k; possible but highly unlikely.

Why is a male sub 26 10k equivalent to a female sub 4 mile? Wouldn't a male sub 3:33 mile be more equivalent? Why compare a 10k to a mile? I noticed Letsrun posters like to compare apples and oranges, but why?