in america with no specific mile training?
7 minutes.
in america with no specific mile training?
7 minutes.
atheist wrote:
in america with no specific mile training?
7 minutes.
Wrong answer.
I just looked up a random local large 5k (1200+ runners). The median 30-34 dude ran 8:35 pace.
Figuring these are actual RUNNERS and judging that typical all out mile is what? 40-60s slower than 5k pace? That means 7:35-7:55 for a field of over 100 people THAT ACTUALLY RUN. Some of them very fast.
9:30 is my guess and that may be generous.
4:30 if properly trained
Science! wrote:
Mean, Median, or Mode?
I'd guess the median (50th percentile) is much faster than the mean, since the handful of 4:00-4:30 guys are only going to be 4-5 minutes faster than the mean but the bottom one percent is going to be "running" 30+ minutes or 20 minutes over the mean.
Mean: 12:30
Median: 9:30
Mode: 9:30
The mean is infinity. All it takes is one guy who doesn't finish to ensure that.
Also, the chances that the mode is 9:30 are astronomical.
Best we stick with the median. My guess is that, with the level of obesity in this country, the median is probably closer to 14 or 15 minutes. The median 5k time is not 10 minutes a mile and, I 'd wager, that the population of 5k participants is fitter than the population of 30 year olds.
lease wrote:
Average height for American 30-year-old men: 69.6 inches.
Average weight for American 30-year-old men: 186.3 pounds.
. . .
So you're asking X to cover a mile. He CAN do that, but he won't be happy, and his time--just a guess here, but an educated guess--is something like 13 minutes. Or a bit slower. All out.
That 186# figure is from 2002, you said. The average now has to be pushing 190.
Think of the typical 5-9.5, "parties" four times a week, softbellied frat boy at your college. Not an extreme porker, just the typical beergut undergrad.
The average American 30yo guy is fatter than Fratman and in much worse shape (~10 years farther away from any regular exercise). Think about the mile time that Fratty might post: you know he can't run a mile all the way, but with a proper competitive situation (a beer bet, maybe), he might be able to crack 10:00 for the distance.
The 30yo rarely covers a mile on foot all at once--that's what cars are for--and, with an optimal time strategy, probably won't run more than about 50yds at a stretch. So figure he's roughly a minute a lap slower than the frat guy--ahh, call it somewhere between two and five minutes.
Great post!
I weigh about 130 pounds after eating and am slightly below average height. Averaging approximately 190 pounds in the year 2014 is simply pathetic and irresponsible and another sign of the public health crisis called obesity. Call me arrogant, but the 6-minute mile is not the barrier. The 5-minute mile is the barrier for a healthy 30 yr old man.
The average mile time then is around 10 minutes, for those who actually run the whole way. A bunch will give up along the way and DNF. I bet less than a quarter of all participants will finish. In other words, 75% or more will DNF.
801 dude wrote:
atheist wrote:in america with no specific mile training?
7 minutes.
Wrong answer.
I just looked up a random local large 5k (1200+ runners). The median 30-34 dude ran 8:35 pace.
Figuring these are actual RUNNERS and judging that typical all out mile is what? 40-60s slower than 5k pace? That means 7:35-7:55 for a field of over 100 people THAT ACTUALLY RUN. Some of them very fast.
9:30 is my guess and that may be generous.
most of these people doing the charity hobby jogs aren't in any shape to run a mile, let alone a 5K. When you factor in the general population, that mile time is going to drop significantly. I'd say the average mile for a 30 year old is in the low 7's, and easily under 6 when trained properly.
The local public track is also where many of the local high school's teams work out. The majority of their basketball players are unable to run 400m continuously. No, this isn't a state powerhouse team but these are teenagers participating in a sport that requires at least intermittent running, not 30-year olds in the general population. The overwhelming majority of 30-year olds can't run 400m, let alone a mile. So we're not talking about how fast they can run a mile but how much of a mile they can run at whatever pace and then how far they're walking at 15 minutes per. Put me down for 12 minutes.
I agree that the median is likely well over 9 minutes, and have no particular arguments with 12.
I'd like to explore the high school argument further, as a comparative study. In my high school we all had to run a mile twice per year (early fall & late spring). The median then (1999-2002 for me) hovered between 7:45 and 8:30 for the various gym classes at my high school -- for mixtures of 15, 16, 17, and 18 year-olds who were force-exercised (due to there being a gym class) 2 or 3 days per week (depending on which week it was). So, in a population with *all that* going for it, relative to today's 30-year-olds, the median was around 8+. True, some of those guys were not all-out, but also true that less than 1 in 15 of them were obese.
The median would certainly represent runners well into the 'overweight' category, since we saw 60+% are overweight. My guess is above 9:30 for the median.
I love how all the slow hobbyjoggers here have the high estimates because they like to think their 19 minute 5k is special...you know what you tried running? because it's super easy to train for and you suck at rec league sports!
Gun to the head the average 30 year old would be 6:30 or so. I played some rec soccer in university and did track (dicus and 100m) and was sub par in high school. I am 6'1 and 195 lbs which is probably 20 lbs overweight from being lean.
I went out to the track as a joke and ran 5:15 (albeit balls to the wall and puked after) and I would say I am only slightly above average in regards to "athletic background". Im also 34.
So no, 9 minutes is ridiculous. and you are not special
I won 9 local 5K's last year running 19 minutes...
hahahaserious wrote:
I love how all the slow hobbyjoggers here have the high estimates because they like to think their 19 minute 5k is special...you know what you tried running? because it's super easy to train for and you suck at rec league sports!
Gun to the head the average 30 year old would be 6:30 or so. I played some rec soccer in university and did track (dicus and 100m) and was sub par in high school. I am 6'1 and 195 lbs which is probably 20 lbs overweight from being lean.
I went out to the track as a joke and ran 5:15 (albeit balls to the wall and puked after) and I would say I am only slightly above average in regards to "athletic background". Im also 34.
So no, 9 minutes is ridiculous. and you are not special
hahahaserious wrote:
I went out to the track as a joke and ran 5:15 (albeit balls to the wall and puked after) and I would say I am only slightly above average in regards to "athletic background". Im also 34.
You have no clue how fast people in the general population are. That 5:15 would have made you the third fastest miler on my high school track team.
I was a hardcore weightlifter who had a "power gut" at 6' 200 pounds and tried running a slowish mile and while not feeling it heart wise my legs were rubbery at the half mile. It took me a week to be able to run a 9 minute mile.
I was exercising but not doing any aerobics, beyond a 15 minute bicycle warm up.
hahahaserious wrote:
I love how all the slow hobbyjoggers here have the high estimates because they like to think their 19 minute 5k is special...you know what you tried running? because it's super easy to train for and you suck at rec league sports!
Gun to the head the average 30 year old would be 6:30 or so. I played some rec soccer in university and did track (dicus and 100m) and was sub par in high school. I am 6'1 and 195 lbs which is probably 20 lbs overweight from being lean.
I went out to the track as a joke and ran 5:15 (albeit balls to the wall and puked after) and I would say I am only slightly above average in regards to "athletic background". Im also 34.
So no, 9 minutes is ridiculous. and you are not special
Average 30 year 6:30? You are a complete idiot. Do you have any idea how out of shape the average 30 year old is? Like somebody else said: average weight is probably around 190. Add to that the fact that most people don´t work out at all and are too lazy to even walk 50 yards (look how people drive around trying to find a parking spot close to the mall doors).
When I was 30, being disabled with rheumatoid arthritis, I ran 5:50 on a whim after not having run a step in eight years. My PR is 4:57 from age 16.
I am 32 I started running 2 months ago and ran 3 miles at 10:12 a mile. Now 2 months later I am running 8:00 min pace for 3 miles. I am 25 lbs over weight. Granted I knew I was going to run 3 miles so I didn't gun it. Also I must admit I was in the marines 10 years ago, so 10 years ago I ran frequently.
I am a 35 year old man at 5 foot 7 inches and currently weigh 216 pounds, down 50 pounds since July.
I am not a trained runner at all, and have been walking/running on pavement everyday for 6 months for exercise.
I've never been fast, although for most of my 20s I was sub 180.
I only recently started timing myself and using proper tracking tools.
Today I ran my best mile at 10:49.
My previous best was 11:41 accomplished a few weeks ago.
I've been able to run 2.1 miles without stopping and I think that was around 13:40. I feel like I could run a 5k without stopping at this point but at around 14:00. I'm slow.
I have no running shoes, no technique, and run on shitty uneven ground with hills causing the altitude to fluctuate.
I think I can get under 10 in a month, but I'm not sure how much faster I'd be able to run. I was ALWAYS the slowest kid, even when I wasn't fat.
Before this I was obviously out of shape.
I know at this point however I'm able to out run lighter guys who may look better, simply because they never run or jog. They will probably beat me in a quarter or half mile, but I imagine they would shit down after that.
I started running at 30 with absolutely NO previous athletic experience (unless you count faking sickness in gym class or dranking too much).
Every day I'd see this jogging group go down my street, smiling and yelling loudly to one another. Annoyed the sh*t outta me. So, one day, I decided to put on some sweatpants and a loose sweatshirt and go out there and show them who's boss. Guess what? 5:43 mile. NO training. NO previous athletic experience. about 45 lbs. overweight. If I can run that, the average has GOT to be lower. I'd say about 5:30 or less. And that's being liberal.
I'm sure a lot of you hobby "runners" won't believe me, but it's a sad fact. The average mile for a AVERAGE, GENERAL 30 year old is about 5:30 or less.
BMI skews it a little bit because people with a BMI that ranks as obese can still be fairly fit.
I do agree that the the fatt-assedness of the American male predicts a time well north of 9 minutes. However, there will be outliers. Im 46, my BMI is just over 25 and i recently threw down a 6:37 on a track. my training age is under 2. This spring I plan to train to go under 5:30. Mostly because f^ck 5k's.
If you rounded all dnf's to 20 minutes, i still dont think the mean is below 10.