Pre Classic 2 Mile: Unbelievable

betterbutter wrote:

BroJo's can we get an interview with the meet director? I'd love some insight on how he got every (healthy) major distance runner in world to Eugene. I mean seriously, this must be one of the best meets ever on US soil.

isn't it because this is the first year the meet is part of the diamond league series?

This is so.

jjjjjjjjjj wrote:kipchoge will likely take the lead at 2k and push the pace, so it should be a fast one, even close to 8 flat.

unfortunately this hasn't been his recent MO

he takes the lead but doesn't push it

- in that quick indoor 5k, he took lead after 3 or 4k with the young kenyan behind him chomping at the bit but woudn't overtake out of respect, as big choge did nothing with it but slow it down from ?12'50 pace to 12'55

- in doha, he took the lead at 2k at ~ 5'00 ( 7'30 pace ) but then pissed about to bell in ?6'32 ( iirc ) - 7'32 pace

i for one don't want to see him leading as he does nothing with it but slow it down in belief he can outkick the others - he doesn't anymore

they might be close to 8'00-flat for 2/3 race, but if he takes over, he'll ruin it & i doubt the winner ( not him ) will break 8'05

Thomas for the win

betterbutter wrote:

BroJo's can we get an interview with the meet director? I'd love some insight on how he got every (healthy) major distance runner in world to Eugene. I mean seriously, this must be one of the best meets ever on US soil.

isn't it because this is the first year the meet is part of the diamond league series?[/quote]

No it's the second year of the DL for Pre. A lot of you who write with so much authority clearly have limited knowledge of how the sport is run. As is fairly widely known, ALL Nike athletes have it in their contracts that they must run Pre (if requested) otherwise they get a 25-33% reduction from year's money. It's not the meet director who puts the races together, in reality it's JC....[John Capriotti]. Trust me he's quite insistent on people running. They go to some lengths (and cost) to get visas sorted etc

I was one of the ones who gave "the Americans" crap for not being in the 10k... and I stand by it. However, in my post, I was not referring to Solinsky or Teg... I was talking about Rupp and Curtis. Those 2 should be running the 10k at Pre, not this loaded 2 mile and nothing/Healthy Kidney.

Teg and Sol are 3:33-34 1500 guys when in top 5k shape... they are not focusing on the 10k this year (and perhaps not even next year) and so running a loaded 2M in prep for a season of 5ks makes sense.

Rupp is a 10k guy and needs opportunities to race some high level, international 10ks... of which there are fewer and fewer. If Rupp wants the AR in the 10k, here is his chance. In the 2M, he is going to get smoked in the last 1000. Curtis is clearly fit and this would be a great test for him to see if he can take some risks and get down into the 27:15 area.

For those discounting Teg, I wouldn't. I would guess he's in as good of shape as he was when he ran his AR. Wasn't he a 13:07 guy that year? I can't remember. I would guess he's probably in 13:0? shape right now. He's definitely better then he was when he ran in Australia months ago, he's clearly stronger then when he ran Cross Nationals, and I would guess he has started to add speed.

Don't be surprised if Teg by USATFs is ahead of Solinsky. This "kid" is one of our biggest talents. Beat Ritz in Jr Cross, Top 5 in Junior World Cross, 4th at WC 5K, 3:34/7:34/8:07/12:58/27:28 PRs, ranked 10th in the 5k in the world in 2007. Even last year, after a seriously long injury layoff, he still ran 3:36 and 13:25.

If Teg races well, I would bet he can be in the mix. Probably won't have the strength and speed to win at the end, but he should be close with 300 to go.

My call, the Americans surprise. Lagat, Sol and Teg finish 2nd, 4th, 6th all under the AR. Rupp at 8:11 (figure he should run about as fast as Ritz did).

Interesting to look at Lagat’s head-to-head with each of his Pre 2M competitors:-

Tariku Bekele 4-2 to Lagat at 3000/2m, 5-5 all events

Eliud Kipchoge 3-0, 9-2

Edwin Soi 4-1, 6-2

Chris Solinsky 8-0, 16-0

Matt Tegenkamp 3-0, 12-0

Mo Farah 5-0, 9-0

Galen Rupp 5-0, 8-0

Mark Kiptoo 4-0, 4-0

David Bett 1-0, 1-0

Collis Birmingham 4-0, 9-0

Chris Thompson 2-0, 2-0

36-0 against our best and brightest.

Talking of head to heads Farah is 7-0 over Rupp at various distances and in good form. In the past he has always out-kicked Rupp pretty comfortably.

bigger question surrounding rupp: will the mask make an appearance?

Although I'd love to see our top Americans in that 10k, I'm not sure running such a high level race at that distance just 3 weeks before USAs would be smart.

The US is so deep now that even the likes of Teg and Solinksy aren't locks to make the US team. Obviously unless his leg falls off mid race, Lagat is a lock, so assuming those guys run the 5k are the two of them guaranteed to grab the last spots? Heavy favorites, yes. Locks, no. Hell, Bumbi beat Teg in a 5k a few months ago.

If it were a world class 5k they'd be in it, but running a 10k that close to nationals just isn't the right move.

Winner 8:09

LV 8:39

David Bett top 3, under 8:15

LV ran 8:40 indoors. He seems to be in great shape right now, so unless he crumbles, he should be capable of the record, and possibly close to 8:30.

This field is way deeper than 2007. With good weather, I see winning time in 7:59-8:01. Lagat, Solinsky and Teg all under AR. Rupp in 8:11 about right, give a second either way.

WOW! just wish I could be there at the starting line and watching this up front and personal! This will be the Greatest 2 mile EVER! God Bless Lukas for running in this intimidating field of World Elites! I wish Fernandez was running too. Look for "V" to run 8:30's but not the record. The winner should break 8:10 easily but "Teg" wont be the guy. Look for Legat to break the AR 8:05!!! This is just truly Awesome! 10k/5k...who cares anymore? For One day, one day only, I say bring in ALL the greats! Rupp,Solinsky...both under 8:10. Where is Webb? Darn it! "V"'s got guts but Webb sitting out? It will be the Greatest Race on Earth! Bar none! Enjoy it.

I think Yenew will take it home, but Lagat will not be the first american to cross the line...

Umpire,

I disagree. Lagat could be left off the team. Solinsky and Teg have the ability to close very fast. It is entirely possible (though not probable) that Lagat missteps and some younger guy like Bumbi sneaks past him.

Would I be surprised. Of course. Who wouldn't be. Lagat is one of the fastest and savviest racers EVER. However, it is entirely possible. On a good day for the Portland boys, it is not a stretch to see him losing to Teg and Sol. They are sub 13:00 guys in their own right.

To lose to someone like Bumbi, a fit Jager or Webb, a 5k focused Rupp or Ritz, would take a magical race from one of those guys... definitely out of the ordinary... as well as Lagat tying up bad the last 20-50 meters (which, have we ever seen him do?), but it is possible.

Prediction:

LV goes through 1 mile in 4:13, the loss of contact with the rest of the field will be tough, struggles home in 4:32 for a nice, but not close to the record, 8:45. And then announces retirement from track to train for the Tri full time, again.

rexydog wrote:

I think Yenew will take it home, but Lagat will not be the first american to cross the line...

I wish I could bet some money with you on that. Lagat will be comfortably first American. It's obvious.

you are an idiot

Mrs Pepper wrote:

Okay. I've watched Verzbicas' form on youtube. No doubt he has is talented runner but...watch what he does in the last quarter in his track runs, he tenses up particularly in the left shoulder blades in effect holding back. You want records when you break that tape you'd better be on the ground after you break the tape. From now until his Pre 2 mile runs if he schools himself on 'autogenic training' he could do 8:25.

Goal wise his goal is the National record, visualize it actualize it.

I would give you great odds and be willing to bet a lot of money that Lagat makes the team. Name the terms and I'm in.

Conto wrote:

Umpire,

I disagree. Lagat could be left off the team. Solinsky and Teg have the ability to close very fast. It is entirely possible (though not probable) that Lagat missteps and some younger guy like Bumbi sneaks past him.

Would I be surprised. Of course. Who wouldn't be. Lagat is one of the fastest and savviest racers EVER. However, it is entirely possible. On a good day for the Portland boys, it is not a stretch to see him losing to Teg and Sol. They are sub 13:00 guys in their own right.

To lose to someone like Bumbi, a fit Jager or Webb, a 5k focused Rupp or Ritz, would take a magical race from one of those guys... definitely out of the ordinary... as well as Lagat tying up bad the last 20-50 meters (which, have we ever seen him do?), but it is possible.

Bekele was left severely adrift in that 7:27 race; I do not think he was in it with 400 to go. I do not see him as having any favorite role until he up his level, and he does not appear to be there yet.

As for those who wish Americans were in the 10,000; I understand the wish, but the circumstances are just not right.

Think of yourself in a discussion with the athlete's coach and make a case for it being appropriate for them to peak for this race (and if you are not peaking for it, it is not a great race to go run with the objective of not being lapped...). If you cannot put forth a several-paragraph very coherent argument as to why racing this 10,000 is appropriate then it isn't. I have seen maybe 100 comments on why they should be running it --- and zero persuasive arguments.