Rupp: 12:53
Solinsky: 12:48
Rupp: 12:53
Solinsky: 12:48
Solinsky 12:53 high
Rupp 12:58 low
McDougal FTW
(oh, what could have been...)
brit/americans wrote:
so who wins on aggregate time?
Farah/Thompson VS. Solinsky/Rupp
Farah 12:55/Thompson 13:07
Solinsky 12:57/Rupp 13:05
It'll be close, but I don't see Rupp challanging Farah and Solinsky
I like this little challenge. I think all are in fantastic shape right now and I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 but Solinsky do PR here. If Solinsky does, I will be pleasantly surprised/amazed. Just hard to imagine that he could be in 26:59/12:56 shape months ago and still be holding on to 12:55 now. That said this is probably the last big one for the season so if he's having another "on" day with 1000 to go he just may do it.
As for Thompson, he has finished close to Rupp on several occasions this year, but none of them seemed to be great races for Rupp. Thompson is older, but has been PR'ing. My money would say if the both have a great day, Rupp puts some separation in there. Farah is less predictable. Great summer but some history of failing when the expectations were high. Perhaps that was bad luck or factors I'm not aware of.
The unknown is if this race will stay on a roll or slow way down at 3-4K since it has some championship aspect to it. If that happens times likely go out the window and guys just try to win.
If it does go at sub 13 or even better 12:55 pace (like the last one) then I think Solinsky, Farah and Rupp all will run 12:5X. Thompson may PR again and hit 13:05.
As far as Rupp and the sub 13 thing (per your other post) the time is just a time, and it's only a barrier as much as it's made out to be in the athletes head. Granted I'm sure it becomes much less of one once the athlete dips under, but Rupp has 3 guys who train around him who already have, and another guy that he has worked out with and raced frequently who went way under. Rupps fitness is what it is, and it won't stop him short of his best because of what the clock is about to say. Judging from the way he ran 27:10 this year and his last 5000 I'd bet he's in shape for 12:54-12:58. Obviously more likely on the high end of that but if he finds himself in contention with 250 to go he will run out of his head a little.
I had the sense Rupp was getting excited in that last 5000, the way Solinsky did in the 10,000 in May. When that happens you can get that little extra boost and when running at 12:5X pace that can be several seconds.
Somewhat Random predictions for me if this does not turn tactical in the second half:
Rupp 12:55.3/Solinsky 12:57.2
Farah 12:54.7/Thompson 13:03.8
I'm gonna predict the whole field. Obviously all of my predictions will be exactly right.
If Solinsky has an off day I would put him back in about 7th-8th at 12:59, so this is based on a good day. I think Rupp and Farah go under 13:00 either way, and Farah takes Rupp on the final straight, with a comfortable margin by the end.
Chepkok: 12:52
Merga: 12:53
Bekele: 12:54
Solinsky: 12:54
Gebremeskel: 12:55
Farah: 12:56
Rupp: 12:57
Kiptoo: 13:00
Soi: 13:04
Mutahi: 13:04
Mbishei: 13:05
Kipchoge: 13:05
Masai: 13:08
Thompson: 13:08
Cheshari: 13:13
Rotich: 13:22
Bett: DNF
Birgen: Pacemaker
I predict that their times will generally make times from the 1970's look like HS times.
oh please wrote:
What I'd really like to see is one of these guys actually win the race. The times are nice, but if we're still getting kicked down to 4th or worse every race, that doesn't bode well for championship races.
What on earth are you even talking about? still finishing 4th or worse? When were we finishing 4th before all these sub 13's in major 5k races?? Finishing 4th in these races is a major accomplishment in itself...wasn't long ago we were DNF'ing or 13:20'ing in the second pack, or running the B races.
It's really sad that we make a step forward, and you get a response like, "what i want to see is them win." Everyone frigin wants that! Who on here doesn't want to see us win? No point in making a statement like that.
The fact is you have to crawl before you can walk, and going sub 13 is a huge step for the Americans the past few years. Finishing 4th is a fantastic step, one neccesary to start talking about winning in the upcoming years. If Rupp goes sub 13 and finishes 4th that'd be about as much as you can ask for right now. Asking to win is a bit ridiculous at this point. No one has proven that talent. A guy like T-Bek isn't going to just lay down and lose. Solinsky is getting close, but not there yet...although not impossible i guess.
There's a lot of steps between becoming elite, and being Olympic Champion type. And only 1 person can be that person at any given time. We need to have guys going 12:50 to start thinking about winning those races. Most of these guys in these races can go 12:50 or faster if pushed to it, which is quite evident by the paces they throw down at the end of races.
Mrr82 wrote:
oh please wrote:What I'd really like to see is one of these guys actually win the race. The times are nice, but if we're still getting kicked down to 4th or worse every race, that doesn't bode well for championship races.
What on earth are you even talking about? still finishing 4th or worse? When were we finishing 4th before all these sub 13's in major 5k races?? Finishing 4th in these races is a major accomplishment in itself...wasn't long ago we were DNF'ing or 13:20'ing in the second pack, or running the B races.
It's really sad that we make a step forward, and you get a response like, "what i want to see is them win." Everyone frigin wants that! Who on here doesn't want to see us win? No point in making a statement like that.
The fact is you have to crawl before you can walk, and going sub 13 is a huge step for the Americans the past few years. Finishing 4th is a fantastic step, one neccesary to start talking about winning in the upcoming years. If Rupp goes sub 13 and finishes 4th that'd be about as much as you can ask for right now. Asking to win is a bit ridiculous at this point. No one has proven that talent. A guy like T-Bek isn't going to just lay down and lose. Solinsky is getting close, but not there yet...although not impossible i guess.
There's a lot of steps between becoming elite, and being Olympic Champion type. And only 1 person can be that person at any given time. We need to have guys going 12:50 to start thinking about winning those races. Most of these guys in these races can go 12:50 or faster if pushed to it, which is quite evident by the paces they throw down at the end of races.
Very true. 14 months ago Solinsky was 13:12, some people on here said Rupp would "never break 13", people had written of Ritz and most thought Teg was the only one other than Lagat with a shot to break 13 or the AR. And I'm pretty confident they didn't think Teg had a chance to break it by more than a hair if at all. Now Teg stands a distant 5th on the list perhaps 6th after tomorrow.
Ritz was 4th in the world last year for the 10K and ran a phenomenal 12:56 marching down most of the field. Then 3rd at the world half marathon championships in 60 minutes beating some hitters.a
Solinsky looks like running well under 13 will be his goal every summer for a while now and he is in the hunt until the homestretch in some races. He ran under 27 this year for 10000. There are not many E. africans who have run 13:08, 12:56, 12:55 and 26:59 in a career, let alone in a season.
Rupp got 6th in the world in the 10K last year after a lengthy, extensive and record setting college season. Then 5th at world indoors for 3000, not his best event or what he trains for.
Teg, solid worlds last year followed by a 12:58 after his peak and if my memory serves me right, not in great conditions or pacing.
Lets give a little credit where credit is due. These guys have all upped their games substantially and have another year before a championship and 2 years before the olympics.
fan of great running wrote: I will chime in with a 12:49.9 Rupp
and a great race by Solinsky...
Only 10 humans have ever broken 12:50. The slowest one was Tergat.
Rupp is not at that level yet.
I think Rupp will be 12:58, Solinsky 12:59.
If Rupp and Solinsky are still together with 600 left, Solinsky wins by 3 seconds.
I believe that Rupp will beat Solinsky by 1 second. CS and Rupp will run 12:53 and 12:54, both run under the AR, but Rupp gets it. CS will break the AR next year and hold the 5k and 10k AR. To say that Kipchoge will place towards the back of the pack is like saying that a cow is also a dog, its completely retarded.
Coach Owl Birdo wrote:
If Rupp and Solinsky are still together with 600 left, Solinsky wins by 3 seconds.
Last 4 Rupp VS. Solinsky races went in this order:
Rupp 2007 5000 (Oregon Relays)
Solinsky 2010 Mile (Indoor UW)
Rupp 2010 3000 (US Champs/ World Qualifier)
Solinsky 2010 10000 (Cardinal Invite)
Following that pattern, last 5000 should have been Rupp. With the fall what does that mean for tomorrow?
anyone predicting rupp over solinsky is seriously delusional.
solinsky has never lost to rupp in a meaningful race...ever. and now when solinsky is on an absolute tear, you really think rupp will win? solinsky has faster pr's at every single distance 1500, 3000, 5000, and rupp's forte: the 10000...there is no reason ANYONE should be picking rupp over solinsky.
solinsky is the past, present, and future of american distance running...we've known this since high school people...recall that 14:41 at balboa winning by 20 seconds? recall that 4:27/4:16 8:43 2mile at arcadia? recall those absolutely dominant 5 NCAA track titles where he put on his death drive from 900 out?
solinsky 12:53
rupp 13:02
fear the deer wrote:
anyone predicting rupp over solinsky is seriously delusional.
solinsky has never lost to rupp in a meaningful race...ever.
Not knocking solinsky at all, but "meaningful"?
The only meaningful race they lined up against eachother was pointed out above and Rupp came out on top. It was this year:
Rupp 2010 3000 (US Champs/ World Qualifier)
Rupp made the team, made the final and got 5th. That was his 4th international champs final. Solinsky has made one.
For all the talent you just brought on from an early age, he's two years older and has far less record of being in international finals, which most would say if you strip away everything but the one thing that matters or is "meaningful" those are it.
You kind up set up Solinsky to get knocked down with that stuff. No disrespect to him because he is great in so many ways, but like Rupp and Salazar he needs to put focus #1 on international championship finals, #2 on usa champs/trials and #3 on times and racing in diamond league.
Solinsky can win the race tomorrow, run 12:52 and none of it will matter if he doesn't hit that level in Daegu next year. I hope he does, because that is what is most meaningful.
define meaningful wrote:
Solinsky can win the race tomorrow, run 12:52 and none of it will matter if he doesn't hit that level in Daegu next year. I hope he does, because that is what is most meaningful.
See, that's just untrue. Running 12:52 and winning the Zurich 5k would mean a great deal to any runner. Is it as important as an Olympic or WC medal? No, but not many people ever do that. Your career isn't without consequence without a medal.
Surprise! wrote:
define meaningful wrote:Solinsky can win the race tomorrow, run 12:52 and none of it will matter if he doesn't hit that level in Daegu next year. I hope he does, because that is what is most meaningful.
See, that's just untrue. Running 12:52 and winning the Zurich 5k would mean a great deal to any runner. Is it as important as an Olympic or WC medal? No, but not many people ever do that. Your career isn't without consequence without a medal.
Ok, actually I agree with you, but the point being focus on the international championships first and foremost and the times will likely come at some point. Think Webb. Great times, even won a golden league 1500, not a great history of medals. And what do most of us feel of him? Unfulfilled promise. I'm sure he feels the same. For Solinsky it may not be about a medal, but just doing his best on the day of an international championship.
Next summer will be his test. Can he win his first U.S. title? Get into the final if he qualifies in the 5000? Will he be in the hunt with a couple laps to go if he runs the 10000? With 200 to go if he runs the 5000?
The level he's been running at this year would indicate that, so we'll see what he comes up with on the most "meaningful" day since 2009. Personally I hope he goes with the 10000 and Rupp and Ritz both do as well. That will be a race worth watching. 3 x 27 minute americans in an international 10000 final. I'd be very curious to see who comes out on top when all rested, peaking and no leading duties.
sol looks capable of 12'50, rupp 12'55 & i hate to say it, mo, who always strikes me as an asshole on interviews, can go 12'50 - his pb is only 13'05 at present, but if pace is good today, he'll take 10 - 15s off that
Man, they need a graphic designer to tone down that site. A little too much blue.
Maybe if you weren't hanging around when he was being interviewed, he wouldn't feel the need to strike you and point out your deficiencies. Did you ever think of that? Silly wabbit, tricks are for kids.
Why isn't anybody talking about altitude? Solinsky's been sleeping at 10,000 and training lower- that is the key- i can't believe he's dropping down to sea level where he's been running with such amazing success. I do not believe a short stint at altitude then immediately dropping to race at sea level will help.
Where has Rupp been training? Out on a limb, if he's been at sea level this whole time and sleeping in his altitude tent, edge to Rupp.
watch this and then make your predictions