Wheating in the Big Boys mile at Pre

I think some of these predictions are way too optimistic.

How many of you have run sub-4? Yes, I though so. ( I haven't either of course :-) Cruz has the Oregon school record at 3:53.00, and he was world class if there ever was one. Even the great Pre "only" ran 3:54.6.

So considering Wheating is still a babe in the woods, I would go for the 3:53-3:56 range. That would be a good result.

runs for funs wrote:

HIStory, what in the world are you talking about?? Andrews was a freshman in high school in 2006. Wheating was running 3:54 and 14:55 in 2006.

You have to go back to what and who I was replying to.

It has to do with at their respective points in their careers. He compared to Leo as a under and upperclassman in college and Robby as an underclassman.

Not what they did in a certain year (i.e. 2006) but say as a frosh/soph in college or as someone leaving college.

right you are wrote:

I think some of these predictions are way too optimistic.

How many of you have run sub-4? Yes, I though so. ( I haven't either of course :-) Cruz has the Oregon school record at 3:53.00, and he was world class if there ever was one. Even the great Pre "only" ran 3:54.6.

So considering Wheating is still a babe in the woods, I would go for the 3:53-3:56 range. That would be a good result.

Pre was certainly not a miler and he wouldn't have touched 1:45.0 (in my opinion a soft PR for Wheating).

Pre did however race all out very frequently so his PRs were usually indications of his max ability.

Wheating, as has been beaten to death, has not raced a mile/1500 since his freshman year without doint nothing more than go for the win and in almost every case (except Pac-10's last year and NCAAs this year) has walked away handily with it. In the 2 cases he didn't walk away he was doubling.

I think Ryan Foreman is right, it's hard to know what is going to happen. He hasn't been stretched like this before. That is what makes this exciting. It is not predictable. Vin is pretty conservative though, and I doubt he'd set him up for failure. My guess is his workouts are suggesting he's ready for 3:50-low. Nobody knows exactly what that is yet though.

*supposed (just realized that mistake from my previous post)

Weather at 2pm: 71 deg (F), Dew point 49 (thus Rel Humidity 46%), winds (at 10m above ground level) at 10mph (4.5mps) implying at ground level in the stadium of probably 3-6mph. Thus, the breeze might be a bit of a problem. Temperature-wise 71 is fine even if they might prefer 60s.

I think I understand your point now. Thanks for explaining. You said "Andrews and Manzano were already studs in high school when Wheating wasn't even a runner." So Andrews was a stud during his Frosh, Soph, etc years of high school. Wheating wasn't running during his Frosh and Soph years.

HiStory wrote:

runs for funs wrote:

HIStory, what in the world are you talking about?? Andrews was a freshman in high school in 2006. Wheating was running 3:54 and 14:55 in 2006.

You have to go back to what and who I was replying to.

It has to do with at their respective points in their careers. He compared to Leo as a under and upperclassman in college and Robby as an underclassman.

Not what they did in a certain year (i.e. 2006) but say as a frosh/soph in college or as someone leaving college.

[quote]runs for funs wrote:

I think I understand your point now. Thanks for explaining. You said "Andrews and Manzano were already studs in high school when Wheating wasn't even a runner." So Andrews was a stud during his Frosh, Soph, etc years of high school. Wheating wasn't running during his Frosh and Soph years.

quote]

Nor was he running his Junior year.

I think Wheating is capable, if not considered a 3:35 guy. You look at his PR, and then look at when he ran them. He has absolutely nothing to lose, nothing. Assuming the rabbits go through in 1:52-1:53, I seriously think Wheating is going to just head right to the back as many have elluded to already, and comes through in 1:55. From here, I think he will go with the "group" that seems as though they are picking up the pace, but are essentially just maintaining pace, while passing a few runners whom burned themselves going out to fast. On the bell lap, wheating will be in 7-8th position, and coming around the last turn, pass maybe 1 runner (as the rest of the pack will have a much stronger kick) and break the line in 3:52-3:53 for a 7-8th place finish. The winning time is going to be 3:48 I feel.

If you think about the above scenario, Wheating is of course 50m or so behind the leader(s), but does indeed pass a runner, or maybe 2 in the final straightaway whom went out to fast. This is what I think Wheating has over some of the others, which is Wheating isn't overestimating his ability, while the others, whom are pro, are prone to, and sometimes tend to overestimate their current ability RIGHT NOW. Thus, wheating will run HIS race (which may be hanging onto the back of the pack), and doesn't become burned while running the 1st 800m to fast. I've seen so many races of this stature, and there is always a runner or 2, that tend to go out with the front group, but ultimately, end up burning out. My Predictions for top 8:

Kiprop: 3:48

Mekonnen: 3:48

Komen: 3:49

Keitany: 3:50

Manzano: 3:51

Laalou: 3:51-3:52

Wheating: 3:52-3:53

Lagat: 3:53-3:54 -- The old man is a 5k runner now, and though 3:54 is blazing, it's not quite competitive at this meet. Wheating is the Sub 1:45 speed, or is atleast capable of, Lagat doesn't. If you looked at the NYC 1500m, Lagat got passed in the last 100m... Look for wheating to pass lagat in the last 100m, as Lagat is that guy who overestimated his ability.

Anbessa

I think this is an awesome oppertunity for Andy not only because he'll be running witht he best athletes who specialize in the mile from all over the globe but because he will be given the chance to claim his spot among the best, wheating is still young and there is no doubt in my mind that he will one day run a 3:30-3:32 1500 at his peak, but as to say for how he will fair out in this race... i personally havent seen him not pull out a great performance except for beijing but that was his first olympics and first time really on the world stage.

If you had to wager on 2010 Andrew Wheating or 2001 Alan Webb, who would you choose? Seems like a no brainer - Wheating. Double NCAA champion, 1:45 guy. Hell, he might be a 1:44 guy who knows. The man runs fast time in championship races, not rabbited affairs.

Webb was a HS beast, but not a 1:44/1:45, double NCAA champ-level HS beast.

No way Wheating runs slower than 3:53.

comparer wrote:

If you had to wager on 2010 Andrew Wheating or 2001 Alan Webb, who would you choose? Seems like a no brainer - Wheating. Double NCAA champion, 1:45 guy. Hell, he might be a 1:44 guy who knows. The man runs fast time in championship races, not rabbited affairs.

Webb was a HS beast, but not a 1:44/1:45, double NCAA champ-level HS beast.

No way Wheating runs slower than 3:53.

I agree, and I'd say at WORST Wheating is a 1:44 guy now. When Wheating ran 1:45.0 he had a lot left and just as he was winding up his kick down the homestretch Duane Soloman cut in front of him. You can see a small hitch in his stride as Wheating has to slow, side step and get back to full speed. It doesn't look like much, but for guys running at 1:44-1:45 pace in full kick, that is huge. He would have been at 1:44 that day if Duane hand't stepped out or if he'd started moving up a little quicker.

Now you look at NCAA's where the 800 was his 3rd race in as many days, following 4 races in 3 days at regionals (which included at 1:46 and 3:37) and Wheating blows the doors off a couple 1:45 guys and 5 x 1:46 guys. He absolutely blew them up and really only in the last 100.

I hope Wheating races an 800 in europe this summer because I think he's going under 1:44 if the big boys are in it.

comparing Wheating to Webb is a joke, off anything other than their NCAA record:

Webb ran 1:43.86

3:46.x mile and 3:30 and 13:10 AND 27:30's

so not be ridiculous in theor comparison.

Webb would never have to run faster, Wjeating will never hit one of those marks let alone 4.

Dorian Ulrey ran 3:35.23 in a stacked 1500 over seas. Wheating is much more talented and a much better racer then Ulrey. Wheating can go 3:50

trialswatcher wrote:

comparing Wheating to Webb is a joke, off anything other than their NCAA record:

Webb ran 1:43.86

3:46.x mile and 3:30 and 13:10 AND 27:30's

so not be ridiculous in theor comparison.

Webb would never have to run faster, Wjeating will never hit one of those marks let alone 4.

Yeah, that's why I didn't say let's compare Andrew Wheating's career to Alan Webb's career.

I said let's compare Wheating to high-school era Alan Webb, because Webb ran 3:53 at Pre. It seems like a valid comparison, right? I don't see Andrew Wheating here and now losing to high school Alan Webb.

Not to sound like a bigot, but it is nice to see white American-born entrant in the field. I am sure this is not lost on the vested parties. Prior to Wheating's entry, all of the three "Americans" were born outside of the US and not one entrant was white. We all know this is a business and I think we need to look beyond the PRs and realize this is a smart business decision, esp. since Webb appears to be all done. This sport needs a miler with whom the wealthiest demographic (read: white) can identify. Let's see where this goes.

trialswatcher wrote:

comparing Wheating to Webb is a joke, off anything other than their NCAA record:

Webb ran 1:43.86

3:46.x mile and 3:30 and 13:10 AND 27:30's

so not be ridiculous in theor comparison.

Webb would never have to run faster, Wjeating will never hit one of those marks let alone 4.

Take it back to Dyestat King.

Oh wait, I guess you can't.

very true on my identity, but once again very factual..sorry if that offended you, the facts often get in the way with guys like you apparently.

Wheating will be great as folks think, already is good enough, Webb ran 1:47.x at 18 trained down and in an open 800 he would have run whatever even back then, probably 1:45.x? 1:46? I just happen to hate when folks trivialize what he has already done, which is way more than the hopefuls.

Again, sorry if that offends you, also,

add something of value will you?

No offense at all. Your knowledge of all things Alan Webb is right on the money. I just wanted to make one last dyestat joke and your typing style looked familiar

Ohh, and I guess it is by now recognizable, my bad typing style,that is, sorry to all.

I actually do not type like that as opposed to what I do on here and did on dyestat, I just got sloppy a long time ago, about 10 years ago now.

Also, I need some help, most sub 4:00 milers no conversions at any one college post 1975?

Anyone have that data?