Recap of Ritz's Tuesday USATF Teleconference

Fair point. I'll wait and see what happens in Daegu before deciding that there's a new paradigm.

Why doesn't he just go for the triple in London.

"doesn't have amazing foot speed"

Up to this point in his career, Dathan Ritzenhein has never had amazing foot speed, and yes, one does have to have quick foot speed in order to finish well against the top 5k runners in the world.

However, Ritzenhein just started working with Salazar, and in his first 5k under him, he ran 2:00.5 for the last 800m of his 12:56. That's 2:30 pace, and this was his first race, so to be fair, Salazar hasn't really had much time to develop Ritzenhein's foot speed.

Look at what Salazar did with Rupp. Rupp didn't have terribly great foot speed either, yet he ran 1:49i and 3:57i (this was still january/february) and placed 2nd to only German Fernandez for 1500m (at regionals?) running 3:40. Rupp never took a crack at another 800 or 1500 this summer, so it's reasonable to think that he could've been even faster by that time in his training. Now, I know just because Salazar did this with Rupp, it does not mean Ritzenhein is capable of the same thing, but the truth is, and I think we've all learned this lesson from Ritzenhein's 12:56,

YOU NEVER KNOW UNTIL YOU TRY.

Ritz's footspeed is developed, that development occurred in high school and college.

The World 1/2 Marathon champs is the prefect race (the perfect distance) for Ritz right now. He should do well, and Saladbar knows it.

Ryan Hall should run that race also, but he has become a slave to the race appearance fee.

What was the last championship race Hall ran? And there isn't one in the future.

Olympic Marathon was his last. Next for him will be the US marathon champs, in two months.

It's not like he developed new footspeed. He just regained it and added it to increased endurance and speed endurance. He will certainly get faster in races but his raw speed will plateau very soon if it hasn't already.

If Teg could just miss a medal by closing fast then Ritz has the same chance of sneaking one with strong front running or at least a mid race surge.

I have a hard time dealing with Flagpole's ego. Anyway, this is a definitive post -

Taking races out strong right from the beginning is not without precedence. Moorcroft set his 5,000 WR in that manner. If a runner decides that they can't hang with a slower pace and kick for a 12:54 finish but they think they might be able to do 12:48 with a more evenly-paced effort, they would have a good shot at a medal. That kind of pace from the gun would take the kick out of a couple of them, and not everyone could hang with that. Championship races end up as "tactical" (which really means slow) because the runners are mainly concerned with winning and not running a fast time. You press for a fast time though, assuming you can handle it, and you've got a good shot, and it's the only course of action if you're not going to run the last lap in 53 seconds.

Rojo,

You're wrong man. 1st, when Ritz moved to the marathon, and when Weldon and you were running marathons, it was a different event. A 2:09 runner could sneak onto the medal stand in 2004. THE EVENT HAS CHANGED the last few years. That aint happening any longer. If you're not 2:04 guy (or at least a 2:04 guy waiting to happen), you probably don't have a shot at a medal.

I'm not saying that Ritz or Hall have no shot. But Ritz has just as good a shot at a top 3 finish in a 10k run like this year's 10k. I know, he finished 6th. But with 3 more years of training, I could see him running 13:40/13:15 in a championship 10k... picking off guys and finishing for a medal.

Do I see him closing a 10k in 2:24 for the last k? Probably not. But most championship 10ks don't do that (5ks, sure).

Especially if Rupp and Ritz can work together. They can grind it out the last 5k like the Kenyans do. When they both have 26:50 PRs (2012), they will be able to do this. THAT IS YOUR FLAW, ROJO. You're not taking into account that by 2012, Ritz and Rupp will have that 26:50 behind them and they will have the confidence to not LET it come down to 1k.

The other thing you're missing is that the 10k has been maxed out by the E. Africans (as has the 5k). They aren't getting any faster! They're actually getting slower as a whole. Meanwhile, the marathon keeps getting faster. The marathon today is like what the 5k and 10k was in the late 90s... its seeing a change.

Hall and Ritz may be able to keep up with that change (like BK did in the 5k and Hall is doing in the marathon), but Ritz has already adapted to it in the 5k and 10k. By 2012, the whole "anything can happen in a marathon" idea is going to be dead. The guys with the 2:04 PRs are going to take the mystery out of the event and they will be duking it out. There is probably a greater probability that there would be an upset for a medal in the 10k.

Having said that, there is no reason why Ritz can't run both events. He can easily run World Cross and the first half of the Euro Circuit. I don't know the dates of the Diamond League, or whatever they're calling it, but if its setup like it is now, he can bang out a good track season in May and June (that's when the fast 10ks are anyway). He can then run NY or Chicago in the fall.

Simlarly, he can run London and then build back for an August/Sep track season.

If he does the marathon, it should be 1 a year with the rest of the year focused on track. And in championship racing? Well, 2012 the 10k, 2016 and 2020 the marathon.

One last think, Rojo... he is NOT a 3:42.99 runner and you know it. How can you take his PR from his sophomore or freshman year in college and say that is what he was. Let's say he never happened to run that 3:42.99 (in other words, Mark never had him run the race), would you say "Ritz is only a 4:05 miler?"... which incidentally would have been from HS?

You know that is a lame comment. I bet if he ran 4 1500s over a 20 day span, he would be a 3:37 1500 runner. And after a year with AlSal, possibly a 3:35 1500 runner.

Bulllllllllllcrap! Moorcroft was the Bekele of that time and he didn't run that WR in a championship race. Even if Ritz went to a WC or OG final and set off at a pace that would lower his AR by a couple more seconds, there would be at least three more athletes who would be content to tuck in behind him and smoke him in that last lap. Even running 12:48 there'll still be others who have PRs that are faster than that and can handle that effort. That said, Ritz just isn't capable of that type of effort in a championship race.

Flagpole wrote:

Taking races out strong right from the beginning is not without precedence. Moorcroft set his 5,000 WR in that manner. If a runner decides that they can't hang with a slower pace and kick for a 12:54 finish but they think they might be able to do 12:48 with a more evenly-paced effort, they would have a good shot at a medal. That kind of pace from the gun would take the kick out of a couple of them, and not everyone could hang with that. Championship races end up as "tactical" (which really means slow) because the runners are mainly concerned with winning and not running a fast time. You press for a fast time though, assuming you can handle it, and you've got a good shot, and it's the only course of action if you're not going to run the last lap in 53 seconds.

Yeah, just like they (fast Africans)tucked in and did in Zurich right.

Was Zurich a championship race? Why do twits like you keep bringing up things that have no relation?

You guys are crazy and giving the E. Africans way too much credit. Who, other than Bekele, can run at 12:48 pace, tuck in, and smoke Ritz at the end? Tell me more then 2 guys who can do that?

The guys in the race where Ritz ran 12:56 were trying to do that to Bekele... and they faded. There are few runners who can kick off of a 12:55 pace. Bekele and a healthy Sihine are probably the only 2. You talk about a 12:48 like every Joe Schmo Kenyan and Ethiopian can run that. Dude, Bekele, Sihine, Kipchoge, Songok and Shaheen are the only guys who are currently running who have PRs of sub 12:50. And 3 of those guys set their PRs 5 or 6 years ago and another 3 years ago. I don't think ANY of them are getting faster. Shaheen is a shell of his former self, and Kipchoge and Songok don't run faster then 12:56 most years (Kipchoge seasons best in 2008 was 13:02)

The top guys in the world may have season's bests or recent (inside of 3 years) PRs between 12:50-13:00, and these guys aren't going to sit and kick in a race going at 12:55. They'll be as maxed out as Ritz is going at that pace.

Now, having said all of that, I agree. You don't set out and run 12:55 pace all alone. Ritz won't win that way (not because he get's kicked down, but because he'll fade from doing all the work and likely run like 13:10 or 13:20).

What he needs to do is run the 10k with Rupp. If its fast, do what he did in Zurich. Keep contact and pick off the guys who went for it. Great way to get a bronze.

If its slow, he needs to work with Rupp after 5k and get the pace moving for a couple of kilometes. Hopefully they can break it up and there will be 5-6 gunning for the medals, they can then drop back and let the guys in front of them keep grinding and they can hang on and hopefully medal.

The only way there is no chance for a medal is if they let the pace dawdle for 9k. Then I agree, they probably won't close in a 2:25 or something. Though I do see that possible for a guy like Teg in a 5k (basically what he did at WC in 2007).

Looks like you agree with me then, since I essentially said the same thing. London 2012 could be an insanely tough marathon to medal in. And there is still no proof that Ritz is better marathoner than he is a track runner. In fact, so far, one should come to the opposite conclusion (until he runs around 2:06:40 or better).

Well that wasn't very nice.

Conto is spot on here.

I like dumb questions, they're so easy. Songok, Shaheen, Sihine, Kipchoge, at present. There should be 2-5 more come 2011 and 2012. I'm not crazy, you're just stupid.

Conto wrote:

You guys are crazy and giving the E. Africans way too much credit. Who, other than Bekele, can run at 12:48 pace, tuck in, and smoke Ritz at the end? Tell me more then 2 guys who can do that?

OK in the 1st degree wrote:

Bulllllllllllcrap! Moorcroft was the Bekele of that time and he didn't run that WR in a championship race. Even if Ritz went to a WC or OG final and set off at a pace that would lower his AR by a couple more seconds, there would be at least three more athletes who would be content to tuck in behind him and smoke him in that last lap. Even running 12:48 there'll still be others who have PRs that are faster than that and can handle that effort. That said, Ritz just isn't capable of that type of effort in a championship race.

1) Moorcroft wasn't the Bekele of that time! IF you want to make an argument for that, then it was ONLY BECAUSE of that 5,000 which was a complete shock to the running world. Only Geb could ever be compared like that to Bekele.

2) If 12:48 were so easy, people would be running that time left and right. IF he were to go out at that pace and hold it evenly, most would not be able to do it (perhaps he can't either, but it would be his best chance...he can't go out slowly and hope to kick it in for a 13:05 medal-winning performance, because he'll be beaten by several).