I would be pretty surprised if Oregon pulled it off this year. They've only got one proven cross country stud in Puskedra, after that there are no top ten threats. Acosta, Klotz, and one of the Mercados should finish top 30, I don't know how much more you can ask. However, both Mercado brothers and Klotz have been to that level, but have never really improved from it, and didn't show on the track they are any better than that. Acosta is a question, while I feel he should be in the top 30, he's underperformed expectations for most of his career. I feel like Centro is a big question mark, 3:36 is a monster 1500, but he has yet to show that it translates to cross. He could be top 15, but he could also be 40th or 50th.
So, best case scenario (in my mind) is
5 Puskedra
15 Centro
29 #3 man
30 #4 man
31 #5 man
This is certainly very, very good, I'm just not sure it's enough to win this year when both Stanford and Ok St could put three in the top ten.
The caveat on this is that I will admit I don't know that the recruiting class looks like this year, Vin regularly has freshman finish top 20. Also, Vin is good at getting guys to really step up when it counts.
Other thoughts and opinions are certainly welcome, I just find it odd that they seem to be the overwhelming letsrun favorite, especially considering how much we seem to love hating them.