RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

Short answer for me -- if someone offered me 30-1 odds on Rupp medaling, sure I'd bet $10 on it... but probably not much more than that. The race would be a lot more fun to watch too.

Looking at the past 4 world championships/Olympics, the slowest anyone has run for the season and medaled is 27:22 (Tadesse in Athens).

On a side note... in looking at these results, I can't imagine how Sihene hasn't gone Tanya Harding on Bekele yet.

(season's best in brackets if lower than championship performance)

2008 Olympics 10K Final

1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:01.17 (OR) [26:26]

2 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:02.77 . [26:50]

3 Micah Kogo KEN 27:04.11 (SB)

4 Moses Ndiema Masai KEN 27:04.11 (SB)

5 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:05.11

2007 World Champs 10K Final

1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:05.90 (SB) [26:46]

2 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:09.03 . [26:49]

3 Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 27:12.17 . [27:10]

4 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:21.37 . [27:00]

5 Josephat Muchiri Ndambiri KEN 27:31.41 [27:28]

2005 World Champs 10K Final

1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:08.33 . [26:17]

2 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:08.87 . [26:57]

3 Moses Mosop KEN 27:08.96 (PB)

4 Boniface Toroitich Kiprop UGA 27:10.98 (SB)

5 Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 27:12.51 [27:08]

2004 Olympics 10K Final

1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:05.10 (OR) [26:20]

2 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:09.39 . [26:39]

3 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:22.57 (NR)

4 Boniface Toroitich Kiprop UGA 27:25.48 (SB) [27:04]

5 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 27:27.70 [26:41]

dwigt schrude wrote:

I will bet my life savings that Lagat or Teg will place higher in the 5k than Rupp will in the 10k

Going out on quite a limb there. You're talking about 2007 5,000 meter world champion Bernard Lagat, who recently ran 13:03, right?

Rupp will finish second in this year's 10k final, losing on a finishing kick to Bekele. You heard it here first, from the great Jackel.

yes, that is the lagat i am talking about, and it is in response to the lad who said that rupp is the best 5k-10k runner for the states right now.

i'll guess rupp gets 8th, which is optimistic. how can people possibly think that he will medal?

I don't see how Rupp should medal. Guys like Bekele, Sihine, Kitwara and Tadesse should be well ahead of Rupp, even if they ran a mediocre race. Overall, there are too many fast Africans to beat. They can't all have a bad day, can they? And even if they had - who could guarantee that Rupp runs the race of his life so far on that very day in Berlin? In order to medal Rupp would probably have to cut his PR by at least 15 to 20 seconds. You might argue he's in 27:10 or even 27:00 shape. But I doubt he could deliver such a time at a championship race with possibly very uneven splits.

I think Rupp is capable of finishing in the top 8 if everything plays out well. And that would be a good result. No chance to medal though. But go ahead Galan, I'd be happy to see you prove me wrong. I just don't see how it's going to happen.

has about the same chance I have of becoming President.

Maybe should try to Ryan Hall the field and take it out like Dave Bedford in '72, with a 60 sec. opening lap.

It's counterintuitive, of course--that's not the way he's been running his races--but maybe that's the only chance he has, given what I'm reading here.

Then again, a much smarter strategy would be to lurk within the field, floating with the surges rather than precisely matching them, husbanding his energy, and then really working that kick he's developed, calling no attention to himself until late in the game.

i don't think galen or alberto think it's going to happen either, i think realistically they would just like him to be able to hang on to the back of the pack of top africans after 5K and as a few guys fall off hear and there hopefull galen will move past them. if he were to get 6th or 7th it would be a very good race. i wouldn't be surpised if galen could handle 13:45 followed by 13:35 possibly even a 13:30 second half. but the question is how many guys will be going under 13:30 the second half in that kind of race?

i don't think galen has forgotten what it was like to take daba to the wire indoors. if galen looks like he did in that race running at 13:22 pace at 4K, comfortably, on the banked boards and looking like he was ready to pounce on the pace i think he'll be on the tail of the lead pack at least though 8-9K.

pretty strange when you consider what that looks like:

Who expected Teg to nearly medal in 2007?

Rupp is in damn good shape and is confident. Don't think he'll medal, but he'll run a helluva lot better than any American has in a 10K championship in recent times. Next summer he can chase PRs and ARs, then 2011 and 2012 he'll really shine.

He's had a pretty much perfect year. Let's all agree we want to see it end very well. Don't understand all the hatred toward this guy. And I agree that because this thread exists, it shows Rupp is finally getting the respect he deserves.

FACT 001 wrote:

I dont know, something tells me that the africans are going to gang up on him and tear him a new asshole.

african

gang

tear

asshole

rise up my brothers to protect our christian women!

jimjamesrunner wrote:

Come on now, don't be knocking good runners and a good program . Kyle King and Thomas Morgan are pretty damn good.

Sorry, I didn't mean to be disrespectful. You're right, the ZAP program is good. I was just trying to create a hypothetical example and it's clear that guys like Rupp, Abdi, Ritz, and couple others are a cut above the rest of the US contingent, including ZAP, for now. The same way the top Africans are a cut above guys like Rupp, for now.

But what I was really trying to get at was that being ignored by the African elite could mean a stronger showing for Rupp at the WCs.

Rupp a great runner but is going to be pretty tough to win a medal but who know maybe luck is on his side and he wins one..

o.O wrote:

Everyone has a chance to medal, but only 3 people will have the balls to get them.

Buster x3?

True Shalane was a medalist in the Olympics but Kara was 9th in the 5000m and 10th in the 10k.

kudzurunner wrote:

Then again, a much smarter strategy would be to lurk within the field, floating with the surges rather than precisely matching them.

Floating to a 13 flat 2nd 5K.

Can Ryan Hall win a major marathon?

(the answer to both is no)

Flanagan had consistetly hung with the Eths and Kens all during 2008 and 2007 at indoor and outdoor meets then popped one at Beijing. Rupp has a long way to go before we can say that. Only time will tell.

I really think I'd be as surprised to see him at 5th or better as I would to see him 10th or worse, and I see both of those as pretty low chances. He is amazingly consistent, he has worked to be able to better handle a surging race, but he just isn't a sub 27 guy off a kick right now.

music is happiness wrote:

Who expected Teg to nearly medal in 2007?

Don't think he'll medal, but he'll run a helluva lot better than any American has in a 10K championship in recent times.

Don't be stupid. In 93 and 95 Todd Williams finished in 7th and 9th. In 2007 Abdi finished in 7th and Ritz in 9th.

And now you are saying Rupp is gonna do a helluva lot better than that? He'll be lucky to finish 10th. You are insulting USA Track and Field. Fall back and apologize.