Anyway, whatever Bekele runs (and I give him 3:32 tops), he's going to be soundly beaten by Kiprop!
Anyway, whatever Bekele runs (and I give him 3:32 tops), he's going to be soundly beaten by Kiprop!
ventolin wrote:
nice post
his 4'49i is good, but 2k all-time lists are weak with only hicham/saidi-thief/morceli running "worthy" times & of those 3 only saidi-thief ran at ~ his absolute potential with 4'46 ( hicham couda gone ~2s faster & morceli ~4s quicker )
kennster's potential outdoors looks about 4'46, so i'd say his 4'49i was just about at his limit
bottom line is that he does have a 3'32.2pb & you have to justify him taking a whopping 2.2+ off that - as long as he stays a 5k/10k guy it's going to be virtually impossible
Lol i love how you ask them to justify taking 2~ seconds off of someones PB, but when it suits your need in "calculating" someone's shape you have no problem lopping off times willy nilly. I have to stop reading your posts.. they just infuriate me. This is one of your less aggravating arguments (compared to say.. negative splitting is the best way to run an 800m)
Still going?
I said it earlier, perhaps some of you weasels should go read it -
Running = simple
Running = so much to do with unquantifiable intangibles over any discipline
This dispute? = depending on the number of races he actually commits to, will be settled on the track.
You guys with all your little numbers and stories of final 200m splits etc etc are so unbelievably tedious and remedial its not funny.
remedial --
- Supplying a remedy.
- Intended to correct or improve deficient skills in a specific subject: remedial reading.
Try again chief.
Congratulations, you can copy paste from a google search.
Unfortunately the google search does not provide muppet weasels like you the explanation of how to put terms such as "remedial" in the context of a sentence in which they are used.
You screaming fister of a guy.
Why don't you show me what the meaning of "remedial guy" is, in the context that you used it?
ventolin wrote:
bottom line is that he does have a 3'32.2pb & you have to justify him taking a whopping 2.2+ off that - as long as he stays a 5k/10k guy it's going to be virtually impossible
Um, you said yourself that the poorly paced races cost Bekele time ("just slow 3rd laps costing him 1 - 2s "), right? Let's just say a single second. And then if he spent a little bit of time focusing on the 1500, there would easily be another second. There is your "whopping" 2.2. seconds, right?? Right. (and we don't mean in this race, this is a rust -buster. We are talking about if he ran a few 1500's in tops shape).
(and you also wrote on this thread that kiprop could take FOUR seconds off his pr, correct? But that is not "whopping" ??? Remember, "bottom line," Kiprop's pr is 3:31, barely faster than Bekele, but you don't mind chopping some whopping time off him)
Will be very interesting and hopefully the weather and pace will spur a 3:30.0 type of race!
for a start, you assume kennster will run a season of 1500s to get down to 3'30
he never will - he knows a season running close to 3'30 isn't going to get him anywhere with guys showing <<3'30 ability like asbel, choge, keitany,etc
he will try to continue to run 1500s off his 5k/10k ability & that will never get him 3'30
as for kiprop & 4s off his pb - you either don't see talent or don't understand it
he had a ~3'31.7pb last year, but in peking he ran ramzi close & ramzi's run in the prelims where he astonished everyone with that incredible kick in the last lap to ~ 3'32 showed he was in <<<3'30 shape - at least 3'28 & maybe even into the 3'27s
for asbel to run him close showed there that he had to be within 1 - 1.5s of ramzi - giving him baseline of maybe mid-3'28 - 3'29-flat
asbel also had a 1'44.7pb last year - he was obviously worth quicker in peking, but if you want another simple extrapolation now he's slashed that down to 1'43.1 - a ~1.6s improvement over 800 for a 1500 guy & he can look to improve his 1500 by
1.6 * 15/8 = 3s
knock that off his current 3'31.7pb & that gets you down to 3'28.7
either way - everything points to his 3'31.7pb being a nonsense - at least 3'29 last year in peking & probably quicker still now
ventolin wrote:
if pacing is bad, onus is on the elite guys to take-over quickly & make pace themselves with long kick from 450 - 500m out
Another faulty assumption you can add to the list. The onus is on them if they feel that a fast time is more important than a win. You can't prove that the field's main goal was to run a specific time in the race. It wasn't a group time trial, it was a race. And every race doesn't go according to "what was expected"
- kennster lacked balls to do it & tried to outkick them over last lap & got crushed 2 out of 3 times when he tested his kick against them ( & the one he won against kaouch he shouda been dq'ed for elbowing him out into lane 3 in desperate bid to be not overtaken ! )
Faulty reasoning again. If that is the case, then the other runners in the field should have made a go of it right? Look at the results, in both Shanghai races he beat like ten other guys, most of which were 1500m specialists. Your reasoning doesn't hold up here. By that token, none of the guys in the Shanghai race are capable of 3:31 or faster.
yes winning is most important, but so was the time & the elites followed the wabbits -
Nope, see above. If the time was *really* something that any of the athletes in the field were gunning for as you claim, send me the link or quote. Otherwise, you are just making assumptions out of hot air.
geb ran 3'31.76i with no hicham & he had to make the hard push himself a long way out & not just rely on wabbits - that showed balls over 1500 - far more than kennster has over the distance
To repeat myself again - Geb's race was *SET UP* as a world record attempt and second place was far enough behind that he didn't have to worry about racing, it was all about pacing. Bekele's races were *NOT* announced as world record attempts and had a lot more competition. So in Geb's race the time was the most important thing, in all of Bekele's races, the win was the most important thing.
Regardless of the above faulty assumptions, it can't be disputed that Bekele has finished very closely to guys who have run 3:31 or faster, and has beaten them as well. This suggests it is more likely that he can run that fast when he is in a properly paced race. Your 1500m analysis does not support Geb > Bekele speedwise, unless one allows a series of faulty assumptions.
Ventolin - when it comes to Bekele, you sound like the430miler talking about Geb. Apparently you have something against him and let it cloud your judgement.
Vermonster wrote:
Another faulty assumption you can add to the list. The onus is on them if they feel that a fast time is more important than a win. You can't prove that the field's main goal was to run a specific time in the race. It wasn't a group time trial, it was a race. And every race doesn't go according to "what was expected"
no
these races were kennster's proving ground - prove that he coud run a damn quick 1500
winning enough wasn't sufficient or even that important - if he'd beaten the field in 3'34 with a last lap kick, it proves virtually nothing - we know a 12'37 guy can run 3'34 beforehand
to the other guys, who already had run 3'30/3'31/3'32, running a fast time was less important - they'd already run them before - to them kennster's scalp was paramount irrespective of time - if they beat him in 3'33, they can still point to the alltime list & say "there's my 3'31 there" - nothing to prove clockwise
he was after the fast time foremost - if he ran 3'30, but got beaten by a guy running 3'28, it woud be no disgrace at all
the onus therefore was all on kennster to "rescue" the time - make the long drive from 500 - 600m out - the others just wanted to win regardless of time
Faulty reasoning again. If that is the case, then the other runners in the field should have made a go of it right? Look at the results, in both Shanghai races he beat like ten other guys, most of which were 1500m specialists. Your reasoning doesn't hold up here. By that token, none of the guys in the Shanghai race are capable of 3:31 or faster
see above
3'30/3'31/3'32 guys don't have to prove their ability against the clock to anyone
they wanted win 1st & if time came - it's a bonus
kennster wants time 1st & win next
Nope, see above. If the time was *really* something that any of the athletes in the field were gunning for as you claim, send me the link or quote. Otherwise, you are just making assumptions out of hot air
use commonsense
for the elites the win with kennster's scalp was paramount ( they already got fast times )
kennster after the fast time - win is a bonus but no shame if losing to a guy in 3'28
To repeat myself again - Geb's race was *SET UP* as a world record attempt and second place was far enough behind that he didn't have to worry about racing, it was all about pacing. Bekele's races were *NOT* announced as world record attempts and had a lot more competition. So in Geb's race the time was the most important thing, in all of Bekele's races, the win was the most important thing
get a sense of perspective
geb was after a 3'31iwr which may have been just about possible for an outdoor 3'29 guy which geb had right to believe he was
kennster's 1500s were not announced as wr attempts as no meet on the circuit has been announced as such since hicham's retirement - these are 3'29/3'30 guys NOT 3'26 calibre
the races whether announced or not were set up for their own target - 3'30 & seeing as that's not the wr, it'd be innane to announce it as a "wr attempt"
Regardless of the above faulty assumptions, it can't be disputed that Bekele has finished very closely to guys who have run 3:31 or faster, and has beaten them as well. This suggests it is more likely that he can run that fast when he is in a properly paced race. Your 1500m analysis does not support Geb > Bekele speedwise, unless one allows a series of faulty assumptions.
no cigar
bottom line - geb ran 3'31i - convert that to outdoor
kennster has 3'32 - not in same league & run more outdoor 1500s than geb ever did
ventolin wrote:
kennster wants time 1st & win next
Prove it. Because that is mostly what your entire line of argumentation rests on. Frankly, if he wanted to run a fast time first and win second, then he would have taken the lead at 800 in the Shanghai races right? Seriously, you are starting to contradict yourself.
Than please explain to us to why gebs outdoor pb of 1500m is only 3:33 in COMPETITION and bekeles outdoor pb of 1500m is a second faster in COMPETITION. You idiot, bekele has never attempted an indoor 1500m race let alone a world record attempt. So you don't know what the hell your talking about. And I wouldn't say gebs indoor 1500m is far superior than bekeles outdoor 1500m performances. The obvious one being that one was a wr attempt and the other wasn't. The other reason being that not too many 1500m specialtist give a crap about running 1500m indoors anyway(Morceli for example). So the 1500m indoor record could be very weak. Its interesting that you point out bekeles 2000m indoor mark is weak but you don't do the same for gebs 1500m indoor mark. Like a previous poster said, it sounds like you have something against the man personally and you're just letting it cloud your judgement.
no
pushing from 800m point is not the way to run a fast 1500
history tells us that no 1500wr since bayi's in '74 has been set solo & that was "only" 3'32.2
the only one since with a long drive has been morceli's 3'27 where he pushed from about 550m out
the ideal appears to be a push from 500 - 550m out because invariably wabbits who are asked to set 3'30 pace of 56/1'52/2'20/2'34 are usually starting to fade by 1k ( but will almost always get you your 56/1'52 ) to something like 2'21+ ( 3'31.5 pace ) & at bell are badly down at usually 2'36/2'37 ( 3'32.7/3'34.0 pace )
if wabbits are doing their job of maintaining pace/rhythm/drafting, use them, but as almost invariably they are slipping by the 1k mark, the onus is on the elite to push by then ( when sensing weakness ) & run last 500 - 550m solo if you want the time
Exactly - "if you want the time". You need to prove that Bekele, or any of the athletes in those races, really cared about the time. We all know Geb did in his 3:31i because he specifically said he was going after the WR, Bekele never said he was...
you seriously want to make something of geb's 3'33 outdoor when he's gone 3'31 indoors ???
which one are you going to use as his "true" pb ???
bekele never attempted 1500iwr ???
lets see - outdoors, whupped by choge, whupped by komen2, fouled kaouch who was about to pass him
i'd be more interested in likes of choge/komen2/kaouch attemping the 1500i wr - they'd have a better shot
the 1500iwr weak ?
no chance - the guy who set it was called HICHAM
bekele's 2k mark weak ?
not in context of kennster's ability - i think that is about the best a 3'31/3'32 guy with <12'40 can run for 2ki
in context of a hicham/morceli it is slightly weak - they'd probably have gone 4'47/4'48
jesus !
if they tell you in the commentary that the wabbits have been asked to go thru in 1'52, do the math !
It's not about the pace - it's about the intention. Everyone in the field could be fine with the opening split but not really care whether they run 3:28 or 3:32 since they are more concerned about placing highly. That's the difference between an actual *race* and a world record attempt. I'm sorry, but there's only so many different ways I can spell out this difference over and over.
err...
what is anyone going to remember :
my name is kennster
1) i won the gold in shanghai iaaf level 2 gp in 3'34.0
or
2) i ran 3'29.5 finishing 2nd in a race in shanghai