Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

To be consistent with my prediction on the other thread: under.

Ritz went 1324 his freshman year...he couldnt hold Germans jock strap even now!!! 1309

ritz ran 13;27

dopehouse wrote:

Ritz went 1324 his freshman year...he couldnt hold Germans jock strap even now!!! 1309

Over.

You need to be in a pro race in Europe to approach low 13:00s. No one in NCAA competition can run with him...unless they had specific rabbits just for him.

Besides, what's the rush to run the 5000m?..let him work on his leg speed while he's still young...what event do you think Bob Kennedy did in college?

Fail thread. Any day now, German is going to throw down a performance reminiscent of Daniel Komen's 3k world record. Just BAM 12:48, and suddenly absolutely anything is possible.

Mr this young boy is way better than Rupp. Rupp is just a motivated hard working Oregon Motivated

While German is talented hardworking he has the speed 3:55 alone then comes run 7:57 same day that 3:55 is enough to make him hung up there like i said he can keep 3:35/ km consistence.i have seen the way he runs and i have trained with kenyan olympic champs and regular goldlen league front runner. look in 2005 Robert cheserek ran 13:11 in golden league and how fast were his PR 1500m - 10000 by that time. this boy has the strength he won the XC championships so that shows he can hung. he ran good in World cross last year he hunged top there i guess he could not keep in top 15 because of the course. american courses are just like running on grass track so i have my arm up for him for 12:55 in golden league (2:35/km) average

And I suppose many people out there believe you need to have someone within 10 seconds of you to run a 3:55 mile indoors...nope guess German already proved that wrong.

the rocket wrote:

And I suppose many people out there believe...

...that success in an indoor mile automatically translates into the outdoor 5,000m?

I'm sorry, I really hate to put the brakes on the hype train and provide a voice of reason, but why don't we actually wait to see what he does in his very first collegiate 5,000m BEFORE we predict that he will break the American-born Collegiate Record as a freshman! LoL!!

you are right that is one reason american kids won run well coz of over hyping when ever any white dude runs well or does good . he is already way above the radar he is a running guienus but it is only the american presure and hyping that may not make him stay high for long but by next year he can run sub 12:48 5000 i compare his graph close to choge agustus,eluid , isaac songok and Bekele only these guys that i can match with him

Interesting to note that only three Americans ran under 13:20 last year; Bernard Lagat, Brent Vaughn, and Chris Solinsky. Why??? Not sure, lack of opportunity, peaking for Trials???

Also, the 10th fastest American of all-time, Anthony Famiglietti at 13:11.93, has the 1,000th all-time performance!

So it wouldn't be to surprising if Fernandez didn't break 13:15 this year.

Look at the last four years of American 5,000 performances: Let's hope this year is like 2005!

2008 ( 3 under 13:20; 13 performance under 13:30)

13:16.29Bernard Lagat (Nike)Cardinal Inv05/04

13:18.46-Brent Vaughn (Co)Cardinal Inv05/04

13:18.51Chris Solinsky (Nike)Heusden07/20

13:23.79Abdi Abdirahman (Nike)Cardinal Inv05/04

13:25.66-Bobby Curtis (Vill)Heusden07/20

13:25.71Matt Tegenkamp (Nike)Brussels GP09/05

13:26.89———LagatOlympic G08/23

13:27.45Thomas Morgan (Zap)Heusden07/20

13:27.47———LagatOly Trials06/30

13:28.52———TegenkampHengelo GP05/24

13:29.72Jonathon Riley (Nike)Heusden07/20

13:29.76Ian Dobson (adidas)Oly Trials06/30

13:29.93Louis Luchini (unat)Heusden07/20

2007 8 under 13:20; 12 under 13:30)

13:07.41Matt Tegenkamp (Nike)Brussels GP09/14

13:11.93Anthony Famiglietti (adidas)Mt SAC04/13

13:12.24-Chris Solinsky (Wi)Heusden07/28

13:15.16Bolota Asmerom (Nike)Heusden07/28

13:16.06Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike)Brasschaat07/21

13:18.87Ian Dobson (adidas)Heusden07/28

13:19.68Ryan Kirkpatrick (Reebok)Mt SAC04/13

13:19.92Jonathon Riley (Nike)Heusden07/28

13:20.35Ed Moran (Nike)Mt SAC04/13

13:20.43*Josh McDougal (Lib)Mt SAC04/13

13:23.50Sean Graham (OTC)Heusden07/28

13:25.53-Josh Rohatinsky (BYU)Mt SAC04/13

2006 (10 under 13:20; 12 under 13:30)

12:59.22Bernard Lagat (Nike)London GP07/28

13:04.90Matt Tegenkamp (Nike)Stockholm GP07/25

13:10.00Adam Goucher (Nike)Heusden07/22

13:12.44——LagatBerlin GP09/03

13:14.32——LagatUSATF06/23

13:15.00——TegenkampUSATF06/23

13:15.94——GoucherLondon GP07/28

13:16.61Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike)USATF06/23

13:17.91——RitzenheinRome GP07/14

13:18.89Abdi Abdirahman (Nike)London GP07/28

13:24.47Anthony Famiglietti (adidas)Rovereto08/30

13:26.65-Rod Koborsi (Gtn)Heusden07/22

13:27.94*Chris Solinsky (Wi)Ore Inv04/21

13:28.89Ryan Hall (Asics)Heusden07/22

13:29.30Bolota Asmerom (Nike)Mt SAC04/13

2005 (11 under 13:20; 18 under 13:30)

12:59.29Bernard Lagat (Nike)Berlin GP09/04

13:10.19Adam Goucher (Nike)Heusden GP07/23

13:10.86Alan Webb (Nike)Berlin GP09/04

13:11.77Tim Broe (adidas)Oslo GP07/29

13:12.76——BroeUSATF06/24

13:13.32Abdi Abdirahman (Nike)London GP07/22

13:13.75——AbdirahmanOslo GP07/29

13:13.93——BroeLondon GP07/22

13:14.71——LagatMt SAC04/15

13:15.33-Ian Dobson (Stan)USATF06/24

13:16.03*Ryan Hall (Stan)USATF06/24

13:20.57Jorge Torres (Reebok)P Alto GP05/29

13:20.71Meb Keflezighi (Nike)Oslo GP07/29

13:22.23Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike)Eugene05/07

13:25.04Jonathon Riley (Nike)USATF06/24

13:25.36-Matt Tegenkamp (Wi)USATF06/24

13:25.75Alan Culpepper (Nike)London GP07/22

13:25.87-Ed Moran (WM)USATF06/24

whoa whoa whoa. What is going on here? I'm not over-hyping anything. My perspective is that German is just as good as the top Africans and should be seen through that lens. You people need to stop putting 13:15 (or any American performance) on a pedestal and realize that many people German's age can run that. German is better than any American before him. German needs to look beyond the "greatness" of these records and just run where he belongs!

In other words German expecting German to run low 13s this year is not over-hyping German. But expecting German to run in the 1320s or 30s is over-hyping the feat.

Sorry that should read

"In other words, expecting German...

the rocket wrote:

German is better than any American before him.

Based upon what? All of YOUR experience? I notice that you rather conveniently omitted your age in the other prediction thread.

this result doesnt matter ask all those junior or youth athlete how they feel like when they are in best shape and good health i believe in his mind he thinks of 12:50 all these guys up in those result run with cauction ( lost several times here comes a junior still with no measured limits if some talks of 3000m WR i agree coz look he was 10 seconds a head of runners up. like i said earlier dont even put this chap in that basket he belongs to Bekele and Geb class how many have produced that at his age he is still having a rising graph whill for those above i may say they are plateauing or facing down what do you think he will have at 20/ 21 . leaving kenyans alone these two boys from uganda kiprop boniface and moses kipsiro ran sub 13:00 at around 19/20 but kipsiro now (21) just ran 3:37 pR 1500 last season so if you compare him in age bracket he is way up. he is the man to make Bekele race in 5000m they all ran 23:00s in 8km cross.but German is better in mile more race at that class minus america presure he is there

Based on (Jim Carrey giant gasp for air) him crushing Olympian Marc Davis's historic 5000m Woodward Park course record by 14 seconds, running THE greatest double in prep history (4:00,8:34) in Cerritos last year (completely solo and with less than 3 hrs rest), crushing both Galen Rupp's HS 3km and Jeff Nelson's HS 2 mile record in a single race running 8:34 for a 2 mile, dominating at the Big 12 cross country championships with a time of 23:47 (so far all these have been done as a MINOR), crushing two first team all-NCAA national harriers by 19 and 33 seconds on an 8k course (where Olympian and now 13:18 5km runner defeated them by 26 and 24 seconds respectively for a 10km), running a 7:47.97 3k (with the last 1200m right at 60 seconds/lap), a new Jr. Indoor world record and collegiate indoor record of 3:55.02 in the mile (running completely solo and done while preparing for Cross Country-not track and not the mile), only to follow it up with an easy 7:57 3k less than 3 hrs later (where the last 1km was run at 60 seconds/lap) or maybe because nearly every time the kid steps out on the track he crushes expectations of every fan of the sport including myself.

Last year I predicted he would run an incredible double. I told my friend that morning 3:59/8:39 (which was about as incredibly fast as I could imagine him running)... and he beat it! How much more evidence is needed?

and I'm 22 years old.

I posted the following on another thread:

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I'll admit, I have some reservations as to the future for Fernandez. But who really knows at this point.

Someone with some better knowledge, please post the 4 doubles that Fernandez did last spring. I believe he opened the season up with some crazy double, something around the 4:10 / 9:0X range. Maybe it was even a triple?

Then I think he got slightly injured, missed some racing, comes into his last three california races which was essentially a conference, a regional and a state meet.

Doubles at each of them going 4:0X, 8:5X then 4:0X, 8:4X and then 4:00, 8:34 respectively. He ran every one of these races completely alone, no pace sharing, no wind blocking. He also did it while working evenings standing on his legs (after his races) at Applebees! That can't help your recovery for your next races.

The point is, after those doubles I think it was pretty fair to assume that he was ready to run in the 13:30-13:40 range in great race. Like a European race where Rupp went 13:37. In fact, I think he probably could have clicked his way to 13:40 all by himself stateside at a nice venue.

He's clearly faster now. The past 7 months of training on better surfaces, with fast teammates and a season of racing 8K and 10K cross country races, while not having to go stand on his legs at Applebees after a workout or race have certainly come around for him. He ran the 6th mile of a repeat mile session in 4:16. This was at 7 in the morning on a hilly, grass course.

He did mop up Luke and Chris at junior national cross. Put 19 seconds on Chris just on the last 2K! Chris ran 13:44 a week befor that race. He put 35 seconds on Luke in the last 2K and Luke ran 13:46 the week after this race.

He himself comes back and just runs to win in 7:47. The were on roughly 8:00 pace at 1600 and hammered home. He was SICK when he did this.

I know it's hard to imagine a kid with no 5K mark at all coming out and being one of the fastest 5K runners in collegiate history. But is it really any easier to imagine that a guy, who is NOT a miler, who had never raced indoors in his life prior to this season, could come and run the fastest indoor mile in collegiate history? That he would do it in a conference meet with nobody to chase, no rabbits and nobody even near him? We know he runs well on his own way out, but come on! Arkansas has had some of the best milers from Canada, Ireland, Australia & the US, with a great indoor home track and great meets who never ran faster in all their years. These were milers! Kevin Sullivan, the guy who has what, 100 sub-4 miles, who runs 3:32-3:35 for like 10 straight years never ran faster. Bernard Lagat, who came to college with a 3:37 PR never ran faster. These are MILERS!

He has two shots. One is his opener. A season opener. First indoor race ever, 3:56, indoor junior record. Second shot, all alone 3:55.0 ACR, new indoor junior record. You can say all you want about how the indoor mile is not run that often, but I'm willing to bet that for the 60-70% of D1 colleges that take indoor seriously, the milers run just about as many indoor mile races as a 5K guy runs 5,000 races in his outdoor season. Most of these milers are getting at least 2-3 mile races per season, not including a possible 1600 or two on a DMR. How many fast 5K's do you think are run every year? They don't run fast at conference, regionals, and a lot of times NCAA's. So maybe one or two.

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I think the biggest factor hear is, much like the Africans, German doesn't have specific time barriers or LIMITS. He just goes out to throw down, and looks at the clock after he finishes.

If I remember correctly, in a dual meet German ran something like 4:16, 1:59, 8:53, then split 53 on the 4x4. I heard somewhere that all those races were in trainers, but don't quote me on that.

Before his State Meet double, he had doubles of (I think) 4:05, 9:00 and then 4:07, 8:45.

Just like this year, everyone freaked out that he was being over-raced after his dual meet quad, not understanding that although those times are impressive for mere mortals, they were run as basic speedwork for German. Not so different probably than either of the 3k's he's run this year.