Rupp vs. Chelanga Strategy

NCAA veteran wrote:

03runner03 wrote:

That would be Julius Mwangi from Butler I believe

yup that sounds right. I remember it as a shocker beatdown at pre-nats, and then Goucher getting pretty pissed and returning the favor when it really counted.

Wow! What a great story! Just one question, what does this have to do with rupp? If rupp actually ran at pre-nats...

rupp will never win anything that matters.

fair view wrote:

NCAA veteran wrote:

yup that sounds right. I remember it as a shocker beatdown at pre-nats, and then Goucher getting pretty pissed and returning the favor when it really counted.

Wow! What a great story! Just one question, what does this have to do with rupp? If rupp actually ran at pre-nats...

rupp will never win anything that matters.

1) A kenyan burns it up mid season at pre-nats and is labled as the clear favorite to win (at that point).

2)Rupp is nowhere in the picture as a favorite, but comes into ncaa's as a seasoned veteran. Now he's looking pretty fit and hard to beat unless Chelenga runs better than he did at Pre-nats.

Could you really not come up with that on your own?

NCAA veteran wrote:

1) A kenyan burns it up mid season at pre-nats and is labled as the clear favorite to win (at that point).

2)Rupp is nowhere in the picture as a favorite, but comes into ncaa's as a seasoned veteran. Now he's looking pretty fit and hard to beat unless Chelenga runs better than he did at Pre-nats.

Could you really not come up with that on your own?

Rupp is nowhere in the picture as a favorite? seriously? The difference here is that Chelanga didn't come out of nowhere and I'm sure his credentials are far more impressive than that other guy's were. 13:24, 28:15 off far less training than he's doing now, demolishing the course record at Lehigh despite holding back, and breaking a very, very fast course record at prenats when the course clearly wasn't running as fast as the year before.

hips feel weird wrote:

Yea he even got put into milrose somehow, and ran 4:02-4:04ish. Not sure how he got in though.

cough! *nike money* cough!

Huh? Collegians have often run at Millrose. What does NIKE have to do with it? I'm sure Alberto called up the meet director and asked if Rupp could run, and the meet director, knowing that Rupp is a good athlete and someone who generates buzz/press, was happy to let him in and pay his way. There's nothing illegal about that.

cmurph wrote:

NCAA veteran wrote:

1) A kenyan burns it up mid season at pre-nats and is labled as the clear favorite to win (at that point).

2)Rupp is nowhere in the picture as a favorite, but comes into ncaa's as a seasoned veteran. Now he's looking pretty fit and hard to beat unless Chelenga runs better than he did at Pre-nats.

Could you really not come up with that on your own?

Rupp is nowhere in the picture as a favorite?

I can see how you would have missed it, but I was referring to the hype after Chelenga's Pre-nat performance. Rupp hadn't run yet, and people were all over Chelenga. It was an overstatement, and intended to be. Sarcasm. It just doesn't work well on message boards.

Those of us who have followed the sport know that when Rupp ran 27:33 (18 months ago) he wasn't near the runner he is now and he mopped up some national class runners from several countries in that race.

With his recent top American placing at the Olympic 10K, and strong and mature racing at the trials final it is pretty evident that Rupp is again on another level. Now we see his 40-30 workout and his Pac-10 romp (1st cross race of the season) and it's pretty clear that Rupp is a favorite.

Regarding "that other guy" mwangi, crushed not only Goucher, but a long list of future olympians in his pre-national run (Abdi among them). It is not the same situation, but there ARE similarities. I do not was as good as Chelenga, but I also don't think Goucher was as good as Rupp.

Actually Abdi came back and beat Mwangi at NCAA's that year to. A handful of olympians and world cross members behind mwangi. What ever happened to Sean Kaley?

1. Adam Goucher (Colorado) - 29:26.90; 2. Abdo Abdirahman (Arizona) - 29:49.90; 3. Julius Mwangi (Butler) - 30:00.00; 4. Matthew Downin (Wisconsin) - 30:00.10; 5. Sean Kaley (Arkansas) 30:12.10; 6. Brad Hauser (Stanford) - 30:18.30; 7. Benard Lagat (Washington State) - 30:20.40; 8. Jeff Simonich (Utah) - 30:22.20; 9. Jonathon Riley (Stanford) - 30:31.90; 10. Todd Snyder (Michigan) - 30:34.50

Rupp is an Olympian. He has beaten some of the best Americans (actually most) at the 10K distance on the track, and ran well in Beijing. What makes anyone think he won't be a major factor and probable winner over Chelanga, who probably peaked at pre-Nats, while Rupp has run one XC race this year?

I'd give preference to any Olympian, including Andrew Wheating (though he is an 88/1500 guy). Wheating just may surprise a lot of people and run up near the front in a pack with Kiptoo-Biwott, Puskedra and Klotz.

Agreed, don't be surprised with a top-15 or 20 finish by Wheating regardless of finishing 9th in the Pac-10...

I'm not totally sure on this, but I remember hearing after Chelanga demolished the CR at Lehigh that he had only recently started doing tempo runs and workouts. If that is true, he didn't peak at Pre-Nats and will probably have a lot more to give at Nationals.

Nonetheless, Rupp is obviously fit as f*** too, and this is going to be one of the best individual races for the NCAA title ever.

And to all the German fans, don't count on him being anywhere close to Rupp and Chelanga. He is good, definitely could get third, but there is no reason to believe he should be able to touch either of those guys at this point.

Well I heard Bumbalough has only been doing long slow jogs and strides so far, so look for him to really round into great shape as he begins adding a few gruelling workouts like 5 by 800 in 2:30 with 3 minutes recovery, and run to the top of the steps at the Washington Memorial, touch the statue, and run back down (repeat 5 times). He should definitely be in the top 3 at Nats!

Hidu Takahashi wrote:

Agreed, don't be surprised with a top-15 or 20 finish by Wheating regardless of finishing 9th in the Pac-10...

wheating exhibited strength last year in cross, and likely could have run in the 13:40 range if he got into a fast 5K last spring. however the big challenge is what base did he have after the olympics and where is his mindset now? he spent so much time running 800's last spring he may see himself now more as an 800-1500 guy rather than an all around guy. if that is the case than rolling 10K might be a little grueling on the mind.

physically I do believe he could get top 15-20. arkansas milers used to do it all the time and I can't think of many of them who I believe were as talented and well rounded as wheating.

Hello Mc-Fly's - Rupp is a 27:30 10K guy, and was only 35 secs behind Bekele at OG, less spread than the closet guy to him at recent XC. Chelanga may out kick Rupp, but that's it at best !

Bekele wrote:

Hello Mc-Fly's - Rupp is a 27:30 10K guy, and was only 35 secs behind Bekele at OG, less spread than the closet guy to him at recent XC. Chelanga may out kick Rupp, but that's it at best !

Actually, Rupp has demonstrated that he has several tools. He outkicked Jonathon Riley (several time indoor 3K US champion) last spring at the Adidas 3K. He outkicked Solinsky in the 5K the season before. He held on to grind out the win at the Stanford 10K two seasons ago, after thowing down some blistering surges in the race and finishing in 27:33. His 30-40 drill for 6 miles suggest that the can very well handle changing pace. And most recently he led from start to finish running largely alone and crushing a strong Pac-10 field. Chelenga better go like hell and pray to God, because to me Rupp seems like a tough guy to beat.

thinking back wrote:

Chelenga better go like hell and pray to God, because to me Rupp seems like a tough guy to beat.

If he's healthy

They can both chase Landon Peacock for the last 3 miles.

rupp's fit and should give a significantly better performance than last year. the question then is whether chelanga becomes the equivalent of a 27 or 28 10k track guy by nationals. german's proven he will be formidable--he is demonstrating what many of us suspected, that he's a rare talent even in college, and it's not clear that he's gone all out yet--but the top 2 are unusually fast this year. as for pacing, rupp should plan to be an even 14:15 at 5k. it doesn't serve anything to go lactic immediately in a 10k.

jonesy. wrote:

german.... is demonstrating what many of us suspected, that he's a rare talent even in college

Now what made you and others "suspect" that German might be a "rare talent" ?? Was it his beating the entire state of CA by 49 seconds at the state XC meet, or was it his running the 2nd fastest 2-mile in high school history only 2 hours after running a near 4:00 mile in high school only races?

There's no suspecting anything. German is obviously at least as talented as any distance runner to ever emerge from a US high school. He proved that last year without any doubt. Who knows what the future holds (with injuries always lurking), but his talent is unquestionable, and just about anything he does won't surprise me.

fgfg wrote:

Al Sal set up a bunch of attempts prior to the olympics. I think he went 401 at Harry Jerome in Vancouver {not sure whick race but they went for sub 4 and failed I think?]

A bunch? Lets see some links?

the question was not whether he was a rare talent in high school, obviously he beat an incredible hs record, but "even in college," that is, that he would be among the top five in the country as a freshman, which is very rare in cross country. at the moment, few would count him out for third unless team tactics dictate a conservative race.

thinking back wrote:

Actually, Rupp has demonstrated that he has several tools.

I think you meant to say, "Rupp has demonstrated that he IS a tool".