Shannon Rowbury Sub 4 in Paris?

to save a long post

- knock off 0.3 off those for 3'59.0

- knock off 0.6 off those for 3'58.0

ventolin, you're constantly using that performance calculator of yours. Tell me, how often do you nail a prediction?

depends on whether an athlete goes afer the right race & are in shape

- if dibaba went for a 1500 or a 3k this year, i'd not be surprised if she goes 3'54/3'55 & 8'13/8'14

- if webb had carried on his excellent mid-season form last year 'til maybe zurich, i'd not have been surprised by a high-3'27

webb lost form last year & we don't know if/when dibaba will try a 1500/3k

i can't really think of anyone currently who'd be of much interest - kaki maybe over 1500 after he runs the 1k in sweden, but now he says no 1500s for him this year, the kennster over 3k ( maybe a 7'21 ) but doesn't look like he'll run a 3k anytime soon, lagat maybe a 12'52, but there's little incentive for him to test himself - 12'52 is a nice time, but no wr, & he woudn't care anyway as he's still fave for 5k in expected slow race

we are not in years when many guys are going <3'30, 7'25 or <12'50, so it's pretty much an academic exercise trying to use any calculator to tell us some african can run 3'30+ or 7'30+ or 12'50+ - it's not news

Wang paced the 800m in China games in 54.7, so why her PB only 56.1 that you list?

i've never seen that 400 time for her before ( anyone confirm that ? )

if she ran 54.7 as a pacer, perhaps that's mid-54 in a formal 400 race - call it 54.5 as a round number

then you have to go for best other clocking & i'd go with her 8'06, which from splits looked 8'04 ideally wabbited

then 54.5 / 8'04 ->

~ 1'55.9 , 3'49.1 , 13'58.5 , 29'23.3

i'm not sure about that 1500 time - but then again i've never seen the splits for that race & not sure how evenly paced that race was & they weren't exactly rested before those races, running the 1500/3k/10k all within a few days - not exactly ideal prep to run your best

high-1'55 doesn't look completely crazy as kazankina a 3'52.4 gal did run a 1'54.9 years before

still, i'm sceptical about that 400 as she indicates a slower 10k than she was definitely capable of - i'm sure she couda gone <29'20 that day based on 15'05/14'26

found 1k splits for wang in her 3'51.9 behind qu's 3'50.4

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_1000no.htm

1 2:33.0 Qu Yunxia CHN 25.12.72 1 Beijing 11.09.1993

2 2:33.3 Wang Junxia CHN 09.01.73 2 Beijing 11.09.1993

2'33.3 is on for almost exactly 3'50-flat & you'd normally hope to have the last lap quickest one of all

looks like wang faded quite badly over last 500m ( maybe not surprising as she had run 29'31 just 2/7 before, but then again she ran 3k wrs next 2/7 ?! )

61.3 pace for 2.5 laps & 62.9 pace for last 1.25 laps

at 1k, i'd have to say you'd have to think they were on for <3'50 but only qu did herself justice

I don't have the exact splits but recall the pace being very hard and even all the way.

Qu was setting the pace, hard, and Wang trying to hold on, not being all that successful with Qu having more speed and not waiting for anyone.

I agree regarding Wang having sub 29-29:20 capabilities.

She was not that fast at 800 and less, maybe 54-56 for 400 though it doesn't matter as that was a non event, and was running the last part of her WC marathon at 2:15 pace with the men. There's no doubt she could have run well below 2:20 before anyone else got close to it.

By the way, Qu ran 2:24-26 for the marathon. So much for those who say 1500m runners don't run marathons.

from racing point of view it's true the 400 doesn't matter, but from an analysis point of view it's essential info ( but we almost never have a reliable figure for a distance runner )

using 8'04 & range of 54 - 56s, we get a huge difference :

54 ->~ 1'55.3 , 2'27.0 , 3'48.5 , 14'00.1 , 29'30.7

55 ->~ 1'56.6 , 2'28.4 , 3'49.7 , 13'56.9 , 29'15.8

56 ->~ 1'57.9 , 2'29.7 , 3'51.0 , 13'53.8 , 29'00.9

in the end you can boil any distance runner down to their 400/800 ability & assign them their best distance

e g

- hicham was a high-47 / high-1'42 guy who's best distance was 1500

- komen was a mid-50 / mid-1'46 guy whose best distance was 3k

- paula ( track ) was a high-58 / mid-2'02 gal whose best distance was 10k, etc

so, from that point of view any info on 400 is very useful

I would not be surprised to see Rowbury obtain the AR in the 1500m this year. She is tough as nails and I have not seen a trials race dominated like she did so. She powered away from the field with ease. I don't see a sub 4 in Paris though as she is probably adjusting and working the rust out of the system in preps for the Olympics - that is her goal right now, not a super fast time. I'd say she runs between 4:01-4:03 in Paris. Another thing going for her is that she ran distance over the winter, evidenced by her indoor 3k win, so she has the base to carry her through the season.

I don't know if the rest of her races this season will give her the opportunity to break four, but after watching Shannon's race in Paris there is no doubt in my mind that she has the talent to break 4 this year.

Well I hope after today's performance the naysayers will be silenced!! I can't wait to watch the meet tomorrow on CBC!!

I concur with the last two posts. I would like to see what Ruth W thinks.

Nope, she didn't break 4. Very close though:

1 Maryam Yusuf Jamal BRN 3:59.99 20

2 Shannon Rowbury USA 4:00.33 16

3 Daniela Yordanova BUL 4:02.40 14

4 Sarah Jamieson AUS 4:02.94 12

5 Viola Kibiwot KEN 4:04.17 10

6 Irene Jelagat KEN 4:04.59 8

7 Gelete Burka ETH 4:05.25 6

8 Stephanie Twell GBR 4:05.83 4

9 Malindi Elmore CAN 4:07.07 3

10 Iryna Lishchynska UKR 4:08.05 3

11 Hilary Stellingwerff CAN 4:14.97 3

I watched the race online thanks to the trackshark link(they showed the 1500 first, then right after went to the whole golden league intro. Then showed a brief clip of the same race 30 or so min later during the heart of the coverage. Seemed a bit odd).

Overall I was fairly impressed since that's not a slouch field she got second in. She really seemed like the only one remaining who really had any gas left to attempt to go with the leader with 250 to go. Just seemed to not have that next gear (or energy reserve) needed to pull up right next to Jamal. Of course Jamal is just pretty damn good.

Great race for Shannon! I didn't realize she made it over in time to run the 800 a few days ago (2:03), which was the travel rustbuster. She is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Wait till she moves up to the 5000 in a few years. Bye-Bye AR.

rowbury just moved to #98 on the all time womens 1500 list,n i was surprised and worried after she only ran 2:03.71 for 800 a few days ago.

rowbury has the 3rd fastest womens 1500 meter time this year behind soboleva and jamal and looks to be in the medal hunt for beijing.

2008 1500 indoor world championships

3:57.71 - Yelena Soboleva Valencia - also 3:58.05

3:59.41 - Yuliya Fomenko - set pace to last 200m

3:59.75 - Gelete Burka ETH

3:59.79 - Maryam Yusuf Jamal

Why is somebody already talking about Shannon moving up to the 5000? What is this weird obsession this message board has with having people change distances? She has now run exactly ONE 1500 against world class competition since she's been able to hold her own in those ranks. Why talk about another event already?

Ventolin you're on crack. D Komen could, for SURE, run faster than 50.5. The man ran 3:29?