Ok then why doesn’t Jakob hold every record from 5000m-Marathon then? It’s not as simple as that.
What? Maybe because he hasn't tried? The hell you babbling about? Has he ever declared he's going for a WR 5k to the marathon? No. But let's do a history lesson here. Remember all the WR's he DID declare he was going to get? Guess how many he missed? None!
He did try. He cratered in a HM after a 27:27 opener. That’s not even HM WR pace and if he has World Class Marathon potential, he would have done far better than that. That he ran a 1500m race two days prior, does not explain away such a massive gap.
I think he would have/and will break the 5000m WR. Almgren was training with Jakob during the spring of 2025 and mentioned the following in a podcast: - Jakob would have run a WR at Bislett with decent conditions. I was convinced of that when we were in Sierra. He could have opened at 7:40 for 3000m without any problems and then closed the last 2000m in 4:54.
Anecdotal stories are not worth much. We can assess and project times for Ingebrigtsen, but only race results count.
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What? Maybe because he hasn't tried? The hell you babbling about? Has he ever declared he's going for a WR 5k to the marathon? No. But let's do a history lesson here. Remember all the WR's he DID declare he was going to get? Guess how many he missed? None!
He did try. He cratered in a HM after a 27:27 opener. That’s not even HM WR pace and if he has World Class Marathon potential, he would have done far better than that. That he ran a 1500m race two days prior, does not explain away such a massive gap.
No Jakob lover, but I very much disagree with this. Going out in 27:27 and limping home in 1:03 is about what I would expect from someone with world class marathon potential in a season where he is focusing on breaking the 1500/3000 WR.
One lesson that younger runners should take from Jakob: you never know when injuries will hit hard, so take the shot when you can. Whether you think he would’ve gone 12:30, 12:35, or 12:40–it’s hard to argue he didn’t have a real shot at this WR when he ran 7:17 or the 3:43/7:23 2-day double.
It’s a shame he never took a real crack at the 5k WR, and I hope he gets back soon and does so we can all end the speculation.
It’s not a parabola because it tapers off significantly less to the right than it does to the left. He is much better at the 5000m than at the 1500m. If anything he is probably equivalently good over 1500m and 10,000m,given his dominating record at cross country against Europe’s best 10k guys.
We have ZERO proof of what is in bold. We have proof that he's much better at winning 5000s than he is winning 1500s. Yes. I mean 100%. Like he can't win a championship 1500 but he can't lose a championship 5000.
But we do not know how good he is at running a fast 5000 as he's never really done it. AND That Florence race is a great one to watch. I remember being STUNNED and disappointed when he got gapped mid-race and thinking, "Wait I thought this guy was supposed to be an aerobic monster." THen he won it.
But some are saying that proves he's great at running fast at 5000. Not me. It shows he's great at running even pace at 12:55 pace and then kicking. Totally different than being on the edge from step #1.
If we are looking for candidates to be the first to break 12:30, I'd have him at the top of the list,but we do not know that he can do it. I mean it reminds me of all the Mo Farah fans who acted like he could run super fast if he wanted. I was like, "Ok, why hasn't he done it?"
And if he's so great naturally at 10,000, why did he suck at 13.1?
-Rojo
PS. This is a great thread BTW.
Why did a guy who was severely de-trained at the end of a long season and sick 10 days before the HM suck in said HM after running sub-58 pace through 10k just 36 hours after winning the Diamond League 1500m Final?
He did try. He cratered in a HM after a 27:27 opener. That’s not even HM WR pace and if he has World Class Marathon potential, he would have done far better than that. That he ran a 1500m race two days prior, does not explain away such a massive gap.
No Jakob lover, but I very much disagree with this. Going out in 27:27 and limping home in 1:03 is about what I would expect from someone with world class marathon potential in a season where he is focusing on breaking the 1500/3000 WR.
This has been discussed before and Jakob has said he trains like a HMer. Sorry, but for someone with world class marathon aspirations, 27:27/1:03 really sucks. It’s all a moot point given that he’ll never, ever, run a serious marathon. Depending on her fitnes Jakob might pace his wife to s 3:07.
WRONG. 3000 is a non-Olympic event, not commonly contested outdoors, and indoor times are mechanically assisted through turn banking. All 3000 times are relatively soft.
Daniel Komen tried a lot harder at 5000 than 3000. 12:39 was equivalent for him to something under 7:20 if he'd run the 3000 more.
And he was a distance guy, Jakob is a miler. Jakob could never have ran 12:39, even when he ran 7:17.
I remembered doing some analysis which said that 7:18 was equivalent to 12:37. So I imagine that 7:17 would be close to 12:35.
People way underestimate how special 12:35 is. It’s already nearly 6 years old (1/3 as long as Bekeles record held for) and I don’t see it going down anytime soon.
Theres à serious lack of respect for 12:35. Jakob is a 3000 runner not a 5000 runner.
Tell us you don't understand Jakob's training, without saying you don't understand Jakob's training...
I agree w/ you but i down-voted you because I detest the whole "tell us you ____ without telling us you ____" trend going around the internet. be better.
There's no way Cheptgai is better at the 5000 than Ingebrigtsen.
Uh, why not?
Agree. The dude was on fire during the height of Covid years (yeah, pretty shady) but he did what he did. His WR, if I believe correctly was set in less than ideal conditions. Could have probably gone 12:32 in 60 degree weather.
While Jacob was amazing, the 3k was his sweet spot. I think he would have been slightly off the 5000 record in the same sense that he is slightly off the 1500. So, I would give him a 12:37-8.
No Jakob lover, but I very much disagree with this. Going out in 27:27 and limping home in 1:03 is about what I would expect from someone with world class marathon potential in a season where he is focusing on breaking the 1500/3000 WR.
This has been discussed before and Jakob has said he trains like a HMer. Sorry, but for someone with world class marathon aspirations, 27:27/1:03 really sucks. It’s all a moot point given that he’ll never, ever, run a serious marathon. Depending on her fitnes Jakob might pace his wife to s 3:07.
Training like a half marathoner doesn't necessarily mean you're better as the distance goes up. You're just doing what you can to maximize your potential in your prime event.
What? Maybe because he hasn't tried? The hell you babbling about? Has he ever declared he's going for a WR 5k to the marathon? No. But let's do a history lesson here. Remember all the WR's he DID declare he was going to get? Guess how many he missed? None!
He did try. He cratered in a HM after a 27:27 opener. That’s not even HM WR pace and if he has World Class Marathon potential, he would have done far better than that. That he ran a 1500m race two days prior, does not explain away such a massive gap.
Yes, it does? Imagine peaking for the 1500/Mile all summer, getting sick, racing two days before the HM not even at your peak, and then flying out to race a HM. Jakob probably just did a few easy runs and some 200’s on the track the week before that race. Everyone around him said he was running this distance for fun and to see what he could do given the conditions. This take is dumb.
WRONG. 3000 is a non-Olympic event, not commonly contested outdoors, and indoor times are mechanically assisted through turn banking. All 3000 times are relatively soft.
Daniel Komen tried a lot harder at 5000 than 3000. 12:39 was equivalent for him to something under 7:20 if he'd run the 3000 more.
And he was a distance guy, Jakob is a miler. Jakob could never have ran 12:39, even when he ran 7:17.
It’s fine to argue that the 3000m is softer because it’s non-Olympic. However the rest of your post is flawed. DK tried really hard in his 3000m WR. He ran the first 1400m in 3:23.55. That is a staggering pace that he never really gained on much for the rest of the race, probably because he was maxed out. There were a ton of guys in 12:36-12:40 fitness in 2023-2024. Nobody is coming within 3 seconds of 7:17.55 though, and since the distance is shorter that gap is even bigger than the guys over 5000.
No Jakob lover, but I very much disagree with this. Going out in 27:27 and limping home in 1:03 is about what I would expect from someone with world class marathon potential in a season where he is focusing on breaking the 1500/3000 WR.
This has been discussed before and Jakob has said he trains like a HMer. Sorry, but for someone with world class marathon aspirations, 27:27/1:03 really sucks. It’s all a moot point given that he’ll never, ever, run a serious marathon. Depending on her fitnes Jakob might pace his wife to s 3:07.
he doesn't train like a half marathoner for several weeks prior to the OLYMPICS, and then the few weeks after. His base was severely degraded by the time of the half. There is hard COROS data on this stuff, if you care to look it up.
He did try. He cratered in a HM after a 27:27 opener. That’s not even HM WR pace and if he has World Class Marathon potential, he would have done far better than that. That he ran a 1500m race two days prior, does not explain away such a massive gap.
Yes, it does? Imagine peaking for the 1500/Mile all summer, getting sick, racing two days before the HM not even at your peak, and then flying out to race a HM. Jakob probably just did a few easy runs and some 200’s on the track the week before that race. Everyone around him said he was running this distance for fun and to see what he could do given the conditions. This take is dumb.
Right, but not a single thing you listed can be quantified. It’s just speculation and you certainly didn’t provide estimated adjustments for each factor. The only useful information that came from that race was he ran a 27:27 10K. I wasn’t there but I’m thinking it wasn’t “fun”.
For the record, I’m a big fan of Jakob. The range from 1500m to 5000m is his wheelhouse, and 3000m WR is the GOAT distance performance.
Surprised by the doubters in this thread. Jakob breaking the 5000m WR is/was the most sure thing in track and field.
Jakob practically jogged the back straight of the Paris 5000m final to slip past the 2nd fastest all-time in the 5000m. Like it was a joke.
I think 12:32/3 is a reasonable guess at what he could have done. Factor in doing this in Oslo in front of a home crowd having a synchronised public Jakob orgasm, and I think he would have crushed it.
I think he can still get it, but perhaps by less of margin.
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The closet 3k time to Jakob was Daniel Komen, who ran 7:20. Komen also ran 3:29 and 12:39. He's slightly more distance oriented than Jakob as he's 3 seconds slower in the 1500 and also only 3 seconds slower in the 3k. Going off this I don't see how Jakob is significantly faster than Komen in the 5k. Komen probably could have run slightly faster in the 5k to be honest on a perfect day like when he ran the 7:20. Maybe 12:37? I'd guess Jakob would be roughly 12:35.
Aregawi has run 7:21 and 12:40 while being more distance oriented than Jakob. With the 4 second gap between their 3ks, I don't see how the gap on the 5ks would be more than 5 seconds. I think this reinforces the 12:35ish number.
Aregawi got so much help from Jakob that race, for him it’s more impressive than his 5k time.