Benard Kibet Koech, 5th in Paris Olympic 10,000, POPPED

tbh, I don't find it sad at all. It's their job to win. If you don't dope you can't cope, it's as simple as that.

There is also a 18-year-old Kenyan who has run a 3:27 (3:44 low equivalent) in the 1500m. I'm not sure what the point is you're making.

Synthetic epo is very much detectable, however it has a short shelf life so they also have the ABP system. Altitude and iron supplements are not even close to as effective as synthetic epo.

you mean shorter gold, kardong bronze, i believe.

Well, look at age of the Kenyan National Records. And remember that we are now in the superspikes era, where everyone should get faster.
Event 800 1500 3000 5000 10000 3000-steeple
NR 2012 2001 1999 1997 1997 2011

Vast majority pre-ABP, during the EPO heydays. Not a single record in men's track events since the AIU was created. That is a whopping 6 : 0!

Wanna look at the road? Clearly the supershoes have a larger effect there, because of the larger stack height. Regardless, their best HM times are from 2020 (Kandie + Kipruto), and both are banned now LOL.

Marathon? Best time from 2023, yes, but by Kiptum who wasn't long enough in the system to get banned for ABP violations (see Koech and Kipruto). Kiptum ran 2:00, and none of the currently active Kenyans have broken 2:02.

Recall that the supershoes keep improving too. Hmmmm....

Hi Frank! Didn't know you hung out here.

I find this somewhat unconvincing tbh. Tim ran 3:28.41 pre super shoes. He didn’t have the benefit of sitting on El Guerrouj to drag him to fast times like Lagat/Ngeny. He had poor pacing. Outlier athletes run outlier times. If you want to write off the EPO era that’s fine, but it seems arbitrarily choosing record times as your measuring stick isn’t accurate. Wanyonyi is coming close to Rudishas marks. Tim basically did the same with Ngeny outside of a one-off mile with perfect drafting. Lagat is his own rabbit hole. Jacob Krop a pretty similar track runner to Kipchoge. Ezekiel Kemboi/Conseslus Kipruto don’t fit your narrative too much. I’d say Kenyan running hasn’t changed a whole lot. They haven’t had a real 5000 stud since Komen but they didn’t before him either that was the Ethiopians’ domain. They have continued to develop 800/1500 guys and marathoners better than anyone else overall though the US/UK are getting there in the 1500 as it was in the 80s. The Kiptum argument is narrative at best.

But I think if you’re being realistic about the impact of ABP/the EPO test you look first at North Africa and then at Spain perhaps to see countries that once had deep stables from 1500-10,000 and now seem to be lucky to get a finalist in these events or an athlete worthy of the Diamond League. Of course Kenya you also look at the number of busts, especially concentrated in road athletes.

Not sure what your point is with Tim and Wanyonyi etc. Pre-superspikes, Tim was 2 seconds slower than Lagat + Kiprop. Wanyonyi is with superspikes and bicarb still slower than Rudisha - shouldn't he be faster, all else being equal? He might next year, but if so, only by a fraction of a second, not very convincing considering superspikes + bicarb + wavelights + 14 years of advanced training and nutrition knowledge.

And the steeple? That's an exception? I don't think so at all: the fastest Kenyans ran their PRs in 1) 2011, 2) 2012, 3) 1997, 4) 2011, 5) 1997, 6) 2012, 7) 2001, 8) 2002, 9) 2014, 10) 1997, 11) 2016, 12) 2013, 13) 2001, 14) 2024!

So, the current fastest, with superspikes etc, is only on place 14 overall, a whopping 9 seconds slower than the best Kenyan (from 2011). That's their best from the superspikes era!

What narrative are you talking about? I observed that the Kenyan track runners are now slower, or at best almost equal, than before 2018. Despite all the fancy technology etc. You seem to say the same, no?

Well I think we agree that drugs like EPO work right? That hasn't been in dispute.

Kiprop was banned for doping. Lagat had an A sample come back positive. He was US-based and represented the US for much of his career, so if he's part of some Kenyan conspiracy that seems somewhat forced. He did get cleared on the B sample.

So, I think where we're differing is what we're arguing. Are you arguing that something substantial changed in 2018? I'm assuming that's a date you're latched onto for the ABP data. And yes the something substantial that changed clearly was more Kenyans getting caught. But is that due to the ABP or a ton more testing, and Kenya's category A status. Considering many Kenyan busts are in-competition still, and ABP violations remain somewhat rare I'd say it's more the latter factors.

Next question: Shouldn't Wanyonyi be better than Rudisha?

So should the Kenyan #1 be better than the greatest 800m runner ever with some of the advantages he has?

I mean maybe, but acting like he *definitely* should be seems a bit much. Shouldn't the British no. 1 be better in the 800 than guys 45 years ago?

Possibly, but it's even more lopsided in that case with Coe and Ben Pattison, and comparing the 2010s to the early 80s.

The steeple as I said clearly we are looking at a brief talent drought, but more injury run at the moment. There's no doubt that Lamecha Girma and El Bakkali are threats from other country that Kenyans didn't previously have to face (unless from Shaheen) at the height of their powers. These guys are a step above Jager and the French guys of that era, no offense. Do I think Kenya is down in the steeple forever? No I don't as the older Serem beat El Bakkali to win the DL title (hurt since), and the younger just got bronze. Kibiwot was a bronze medal guy for a few cycles.

Are the Kenyan men off the glory days of the mid-90s with the Kim McDonald group? On the track, yes with only one superstar (Wanyonyi) as opposed to then with Kiptanui, Tergat, Komen, and Ngeny for a time. And Kipketer if you count him. On the roads, John Korir, Sabastian Sawe, Benson Kipruto, and Alexander Mutiso are in any World top 10. They have more guys running 2:02s and 2:03s than in any other era. The women I don't need to say anything. The men don't have the superstar outside of Wanyonyi but have the stable of sub-1:43, sub-3:30, sub-8:10, sub-13, sub-27 guys etc. You are looking at only the fastest in each event and not where the rank-and-file and top 5 guys are running. Why is that the only info that matters?

So is the reason that Kenyan men only, excluding the 800 because of Wanyonyi, don't have a superstar in the 1500, steeple, 5,000 and 10,000 right now all drug testing changes? Or are you overanalyzing small sample sizes? Are the potential 10,000 guys (Sawe) on the roads? Why is there no heir to Bekele for Ethiopia?

I tend to think it takes special athletes to make an outsized mark on the world level. There's no given any country will have them, including Kenya. I think Tim was the last one they had in the 1500, but he had some bad luck with the pandemic. They have one in the 800 now in Wanyonyi. They have one in Sawe in the marathon, succeeding Kipchoge. The women's side has two major ones in Kipyegon and Chebet, possibly N'getich too.

To me, what the ABP probably does most effectively is get rid of blatant dopers. I think in many cases athletes and countries who were completely reliant on this in the '90s through pre-2018 period have pretty much gone away.

Please stop with the obvious lie of Koech being 18.

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18 years old. Right.

So say he's 22 or whatever. It's still a guy who ran 3:27.72, won a DL in under 3:29, a gold label in 3:29.0 and finished top 3 in two other DLs. And he's the Kenyan #3 or maybe even #4/5 if Wanyonyi decided to run it, or Brian Komen had gotten a fair crack at earning his spot over him.

LOL

That wasn’t the point though. Stop being so full of yourself.

Careful. He’ll have your post removed as quickly as he has downvotes removed.

Not a mod and don’t report users for what it’s worth. Full of myself? Of course though the downvotes hurt my feelings.

My point was that, yes, and that the increased AIU testing led to a decline of top Kenyan performances at the very top. Not just concerning the NRs, but also when you look at the top 10 etc as I demonstrated for the steeple that you brought up. That the best Kenyan steepler from the 2020s is only the 14th best Kenyan is quite an eye opener, don't you think?

Banning stars—like Kiprop (3:26) or Manangoi (world champ) or Kandie (WR) or Kipruto (sub-58) or Ekiru (2:02) or Anyango (sub-29) or Chepngetich (2:09)—doesn't just remove those (for a few years), but also scares others into doping less.

That some European NRs still exist from the early 80s (no out-of-competition tests whatsoever, plus legal blood transfusions, own federation in charge - remember USATF's cover ups? ), supports the point that testing matters imho, just like your examples with Spain and North Africa.

The ABP had only a minor impact in Kenya, because blood testing in Kenya remained practically non-existent before the AIU.

Why do you argue with me? Serious question. Do you not agree that the increased AIU testing led to a decline of top Kenyan performances at the very top?

None of this is true.

Fact: Yet ANOTHER pathetic scrawny stick figure got caught doing what Kenyans do best - CHEAT.

BAN KENYA NOW

yes, he looks like a young kid to me.

and if you think they're all age-cheating, so at what age did Kipchoge run his 2:01:09? 42? That's even more impressive than a 3:27 at 18 tbf, which doesn't really support your argument.

Yes at the very top on the men’s side in the steeple, 5,000 and maybe 10,000 (rarely run). But your phrasing of “top Kenyan performances at the very top” gets at what I’m arguing. You are talking about singular performances. In every event but the men’s steeple, Kenya is actually deeper I suspect. Then there’s the women’s side and the marathon. So the question to you is why does it only affect the top Kenyan male and in those events. The explanation I am proposing is that outlier athletes or doped athletes with a high level of talent (Kiprop) are the biggest reason. But I think we mostly agree as the athletes you’re saying are skewing the records are considered widely suspicious or disgraced.

Apples and oranges. Jack Foster back in the ancient days of the 1970s was 41 when he ran 2:11… and he hadn’t started running until he was 32. Speed is not as vital in the marathon as endurance obviously. That’s why marathoners can do well at ages beyond what would be doom for track athletes. So in today’s era of EPO loaded Africans it’s easily believable that Kipchoge was Masters eligible running 2:01. Stating that guy (Phanuel Koech) looks like a kid, is a bit rich even for a virtue signaler. That picture and vid the guy posted shows the Kenyan to be in his early 20s at minimum, and after what was discovered about African teams, including Kenya, by FIFA after they began using the MRI test on “junior” players, it’s a good bet Koech is well out of his teens by three or four years. At least.