Didn't some Gr 11 girl (Dumas?) run around 2:00 last summer? She was mostly a 400m/400mH runner from what I can see. She certainly isn't anywhere near as fast as Femka in those events. I can see Bol running sub 2 first time out if the pacing is on point.
I'm sure she has done some time trials to know where she is at for this event. I don't think it's going to go the way they think it will go. Prediction of 2:10 for me.
Lets add this dude to the ever growing list of trolls.
Its interesting to see how Bol will do in the 800, but basically she is the 2nd best 400 hurdler in the world, who is very good in the 400 but unlikely to medalShe probably is moving because Mclaughlin is better at 400 and 400 hurdles and she would not likely medal at 400 with Paulino and Naser, she is good at 400, but likely somehere between 4-10 in the world at her best she could be 4th on a regular day any where in the top 10 but not top 3
Bol is basically the 4th best 400m runner in the world currently, while not focusing on it. The top 3 in 2025 were McLaughlin, Paulino & Naser. After that it's effectively Bol. She regularly beats Bukowiecka & Anning, who finished 4th and 5th in Tokyo 25 (the pole in individual races by, on average, half a second, and she thrashes Anning on every relay leg head to head.)
When McLaughlin first focused on the flat in 2023 she was beaten by Paulino at the Paris DL meet. We've no idea what would have happened in Budapest, but Paulino ran 48.1 the following year in Paris. It took McLaughlin a number of races to refine her racing in 25 before improving and becoming number 1.
Who knows what Bol could have done had she chosen the 400 flat route this season, but my guess is she would certainly have been top 3. Instead, she has chosen the tougher route of the 800m. I'm massively in awe of her decision.
Back to Metz. Ive still no idea what she might run. But remember, she has run a number of relay legs when initially in 'packs'.
Femke BOL (NED) recently announced that she was giving up the 400m hurdles to ‘move up’ to the 800m. The Dutch athlete, who holds the meeting record for the 400m (49.63 seconds set in 2024), will be at the starting line of the 600m to attempt to break the best all-time world performance in the 600m of 1:23.41 currently held by K. HODGKINSON.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Modelling suggests a strength based 49.17 400 athlete would run: 200 in 22.86 (Femke's PB is 22.64i from 2024*) 500 in 66.47 (Femke's PB is 65.63i from 2024) 600 in 1:23.65 800 in 2:00.34
*40 minutes after a 49.96 400.
In 2024, Femke was both faster (200) and fitter (500) than her 400 PB suggests, which means she could definitely run faster than 49.17.
So Femke's speed reserve is at least 22.64. Let's take 1% off that 200i PB to account for the fatigue she carried into that race from the 400, 40 minutes earlier.
22.64 x 0.99 = 22.41
Modelling suggests a strength based 400 athlete with a 22.41 PB would run, just off 400 training: 400 in 48.69 500 in 65.81 (recall Femke's PB is 65.63i from 2024) 600 in 1:22.83 800 in 1:59.16
So, even before adding in extra aerobic work, Femke was very likely in the above shape in 2024, and if the winter has been a success, expect next month's 800 and the 600 to be under these times.
Femke BOL (NED) recently announced that she was giving up the 400m hurdles to ‘move up’ to the 800m. The Dutch athlete, who holds the meeting record for the 400m (49.63 seconds set in 2024), will be at the starting line of the 600m to attempt to break the best all-time world performance in the 600m of 1:23.41 currently held by K. HODGKINSON.
Since October I thought she would attempt this 600 record in the New Balance meet, with a race specifically set up for her.
But to do that they would have needed to be fully confident in her training at least a month in advance. That obviously didn't happen. Meuwly was still giving hedging interviews a few weeks ago on whether Bol would run indoors at all.
These first two races at 800 and 600 will be held during the Olympic window. That's obviously not a factor on a specialized site like this. But they are going to receive even less attention than normal in the Netherlands, which is going to be focusing on the speed skating results. Another Dutch Femke is a huge sprint contender there...Femke Kok.
Netherlands smartly pushed back their indoor championships a week this year to February 28 and March 1, beyond the Olympics.
Femke's overall 400 PB is 49.17i from 2024.Modelling suggests a strength based 49.17 400 athlete would run: 200 in 22.86 (Femke's PB is 22.64i from 2024*) 500 in 66.47 (Femke's PB is 65.63i from 2024) 600 in 1:23.65 800 in 2:00.34
*40 minutes after a 49.96 400.
In 2024, Femke was both faster (200) and fitter (500) than her 400 PB suggests, which means she could definitely run faster than 49.17.
So Femke's speed reserve is at least 22.64. Let's take 1% off that 200i PB to account for the fatigue she carried into that race from the 400, 40 minutes earlier.
22.64 x 0.99 = 22.41
Modelling suggests a strength based 400 athlete with a 22.41 PB would run, just off 400 training: 400 in 48.69 500 in 65.81 (recall Femke's PB is 65.63i from 2024) 600 in 1:22.83 800 in 1:59.16
So, even before adding in extra aerobic work, Femke was very likely in the above shape in 2024, and if the winter has been a success, expect next month's 800 and the 600 to be under these times.
Caught an error. I used Femke's 22.64i PB in my calculation; using the fatigue-adjusted 22.41:
Modelling suggests a strength based 400 athlete with a 22.41 PB would run, just off 400 training: 400 in 48.20 500 in 65.16 (recall Femke's PB is 65.63i from 2024) 600 in 1:22.00 800 in 1:57.97
So, even before adding in extra aerobic work, Femke was very likely in the above shape in 2024, and if the winter has been a success, expect next month's 800 and the 600 to be under these times.
The 600 outdoor WB is 1:21.63 by Mary Moraa in 2024; I think this will go down in Liévin.
veelgeluk: under 1:57.97 / 1:22.00 Chef Gordon Ramzi: 1:58 (1:53 WR late outdoor season) mictlantecuhtli: 1:58 Wetcoast: 1:58 lock in your bets: 1:58 low/mid moorest: 1:58 high RunBum: 1:58–2:00 800femke: 1:59 or better Peach Pit: 1:59–2:00 Hardloper: under 2:00 Who dat??: sub 2:00 jjanderson01: 2:00 cmon: 2:00 BemkeFol: 2:00 1955: 2:00 too much credit given: won't break 2:00 WhatAreTheirCocktails: 2:00.xx jhand366: 2:01.28 Hal1983: 2:02 Wth is wrong with people: 2:02 coachy: 2:10
Bol is basically the 4th best 400m runner in the world currently, while not focusing on it. The top 3 in 2025 were McLaughlin, Paulino & Naser. After that it's effectively Bol. She regularly beats Bukowiecka & Anning, who finished 4th and 5th in Tokyo 25 (the pole in individual races by, on average, half a second, and she thrashes Anning on every relay leg head to head.)
When McLaughlin first focused on the flat in 2023 she was beaten by Paulino at the Paris DL meet. We've no idea what would have happened in Budapest, but Paulino ran 48.1 the following year in Paris. It took McLaughlin a number of races to refine her racing in 25 before improving and becoming number 1.
Who knows what Bol could have done had she chosen the 400 flat route this season, but my guess is she would certainly have been top 3. Instead, she has chosen the tougher route of the 800m. I'm massively in awe of her decision.
Back to Metz. Ive still no idea what she might run. But remember, she has run a number of relay legs when initially in 'packs'.
Sydney's loss to Paulino came in Sydney's outdoor season opener. She ran 49.71 in that race, then improved to 49.51 in her next race, then ran a world-leading 48.74 at the US championships. In every season she's completed as a pro, Sydney has run faster at the global championship final than in the US championship final, so odds are Sydney would have run a PB in Budapest had she not been injured. Although she missed Budapest, Sydney finished 2023 with the world's fastest time in the 400m.
Hello do you forget Gabby runs 49.14 last year at the season beginning? Faster than Bol who runs middle in the season, right? She clearly is the better 400m runner than Bol last season. And do you forget Sydney runs 48.74, the WL in 2023, faster than Paulino in her 1st pro 400m season? Can you say this to Bol? Where is her 400m WL? Bol fans always tend to exaggerate her achievements to make her look better than she actually is. It’s really amusing.
Hello do you forget Gabby runs 49.14 last year at the season beginning? Faster than Bol who runs middle in the season, right? She clearly is the better 400m runner than Bol last season. And do you forget Sydney runs 48.74, the WL in 2023, faster than Paulino in her 1st pro 400m season? Can you say this to Bol? Where is her 400m WL? Bol fans always tend to exaggerate her achievements to make her look better than she actually is. It’s really amusing.
Gabby clearly peaked for Grand Slam Track, she was running faster in April than July lol. Bol also ran the 400m only at the beginning of her season, her 2nd and last race was as fast as Sydney's 2nd race
Hello do you forget Gabby runs 49.14 last year at the season beginning? Faster than Bol who runs middle in the season, right? She clearly is the better 400m runner than Bol last season. And do you forget Sydney runs 48.74, the WL in 2023, faster than Paulino in her 1st pro 400m season? Can you say this to Bol? Where is her 400m WL? Bol fans always tend to exaggerate her achievements to make her look better than she actually is. It’s really amusing.
Ah yes, if only one-off times were the deciding factor on greatness.
Until Thomas regularly runs 400m and beats medalists regularly, I cannot rank her above Bol based on one good race.
Bukowiecka finished 2nd, 3rd & 4th in the last global championships, and yet lost to Bol in their last 8 races. When Thomas regularly beats a Bukowiecka or an Anning, then I'll put her in the top 5.
As for McLaughlin's 23 time...she lost her head to head with Paulino. So Paulino was number 1 that year. Simples.
I have no doubt she will be smooth and under control at 400 in 58. But how will she be at 600 in 128? At 700 in 143? In the 800, those 100s become miles
She’s going to be so smooth and under control at 600 in 1:28.
I disagree with anyone saying “anything under 2:02 would be a great run.” We’re talking about a 25 year old gold medalist with years of consistent training, who ran a 65.6i 500m two years ago and hasn’t shied away from discussing her 800 aspirations; if she can’t break 2:00 already, it’s a bad sign for her 800 potential. Granted, anyone can have a crap day and run a time that’s not representative of their ability, so I won’t write her off if she runs 2:01-2:02, but it wouldn’t be a good result.
I’m putting trust in Bol and her coaches that they have every reason to believe she can be an Olympic finalist at 800. I think a well trained 49 second 400 runner with world class 800 potential is running sub-2 within months, not years.
I’m guessing she runs 1:58 in Metz, 1:22 in Lievin.
I have no doubt she will be smooth and under control at 400 in 58. But how will she be at 600 in 128? At 700 in 143? In the 800, those 100s become miles
She’s going to be so smooth and under control at 600 in 1:28.
I disagree with anyone saying “anything under 2:02 would be a great run.” We’re talking about a 25 year old gold medalist with years of consistent training, who ran a 65.6i 500m two years ago and hasn’t shied away from discussing her 800 aspirations; if she can’t break 2:00 already, it’s a bad sign for her 800 potential. Granted, anyone can have a crap day and run a time that’s not representative of their ability, so I won’t write her off if she runs 2:01-2:02, but it wouldn’t be a good result.
I’m putting trust in Bol and her coaches that they have every reason to believe she can be an Olympic finalist at 800. I think a well trained 49 second 400 runner with world class 800 potential is running sub-2 within months, not years.
I’m guessing she runs 1:58 in Metz, 1:22 in Lievin.
Olympic finalist? The goal is the olympic gold obviously, not the olympic final