I think its entirely possible that the fittest we ever see Hoey during the 2026 season is in 2025.
Has there ever been an earlier "too early"??
2026 will be the first year without a global outdoor championship since 2020. If there was ever a year to chase indoor world records this is it. It’s far from crazy for Hoey to be maximizing fitness right now.
I think its entirely possible that the fittest we ever see Hoey during the 2026 season is in 2025.
Has there ever been an earlier "too early"??
2026 will be the first year without a global outdoor championship since 2020. If there was ever a year to chase indoor world records this is it. It’s far from crazy for Hoey to be maximizing fitness right now.
But this is what the confusion/critique is. Do you mean now as in December/January 2025/26 or July/August 2026?
Because there is a strong case to be made that he won't be able to maximize his fitness when it matters (which is not now) because of this seeming desire to be in "max fitness" basically all year round and chase ultimately meaningless WR's like the indoor 600m.
If Hoey was able run that sub 73 second 600m and then beat that world class field in that road mile (with all of them clearly in winter training/holiday mode) the way he did when he was also just at 80% race fitness, then okay - you could say he's tracking towards that July/August target period to be in all-time shape.
The question, is that the case because there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest it might not be the case, including separating from the coach that helped him progress to his level because that coach was suggesting to take the foot off the gas a little to help him better focus on that key period.
2026 will be the first year without a global outdoor championship since 2020. If there was ever a year to chase indoor world records this is it. It’s far from crazy for Hoey to be maximizing fitness right now.
But this is what the confusion/critique is. Do you mean now as in December/January 2025/26 or July/August 2026?
Because there is a strong case to be made that he won't be able to maximize his fitness when it matters (which is not now) because of this seeming desire to be in "max fitness" basically all year round and chase ultimately meaningless WR's like the indoor 600m.
If Hoey was able run that sub 73 second 600m and then beat that world class field in that road mile (with all of them clearly in winter training/holiday mode) the way he did when he was also just at 80% race fitness, then okay - you could say he's tracking towards that July/August target period to be in all-time shape.
The question, is that the case because there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest it might not be the case, including separating from the coach that helped him progress to his level because that coach was suggesting to take the foot off the gas a little to help him better focus on that key period.
The July and August target period doesn’t matter in 2026, there’s no world championship to peak for. It’s not a key period. Hoey has an opportunity right now in December and January to rewrite the indoor record book. If he has a crappy outdoor season in 2026 it doesn’t matter. 2027 and especially 2028 are the years for targeting outdoor medals.
2026 will be the first year without a global outdoor championship since 2020. If there was ever a year to chase indoor world records this is it. It’s far from crazy for Hoey to be maximizing fitness right now.
But this is what the confusion/critique is. Do you mean now as in December/January 2025/26 or July/August 2026?
Because there is a strong case to be made that he won't be able to maximize his fitness when it matters (which is not now) because of this seeming desire to be in "max fitness" basically all year round and chase ultimately meaningless WR's like the indoor 600m.
If Hoey was able run that sub 73 second 600m and then beat that world class field in that road mile (with all of them clearly in winter training/holiday mode) the way he did when he was also just at 80% race fitness, then okay - you could say he's tracking towards that July/August target period to be in all-time shape.
The question, is that the case because there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest it might not be the case, including separating from the coach that helped him progress to his level because that coach was suggesting to take the foot off the gas a little to help him better focus on that key period.
Let’s say some kind of miracle happens and he runs under 1:41 in June. And then he craps the bed by July. In August, he blows up in a DL race to run 1:46 and calls it a year. He also runs 2:12 and a 3:46 mile before. I that a successful season?
The July and August target period doesn’t matter in 2026, there’s no world championship to peak for. It’s not a key period. Hoey has an opportunity right now in December and January to rewrite the indoor record book. If he has a crappy outdoor season in 2026 it doesn’t matter. 2027 and especially 2028 are the years for targeting outdoor medals.
So if you were him you'd rather rewrite the indoor record book than potentially break the US record/maybe even go after 1.41.0 outdoors?
I can promise you it would be far more legendary and lucrative for him to the the latter there but horses for courses I guess.
Let’s say some kind of miracle happens and he runs under 1:41 in June. And then he craps the bed by July. In August, he blows up in a DL race to run 1:46 and calls it a year. He also runs 2:12 and a 3:46 mile before. I that a successful season?
Yes that would be incredible. But June is 6.5 months away right now. We could just keep going back and back and back until we get a sub 1.41.0 in April but how realistic are we trying to be here?
Let’s say some kind of miracle happens and he runs under 1:41 in June. And then he craps the bed by July. In August, he blows up in a DL race to run 1:46 and calls it a year. He also runs 2:12 and a 3:46 mile before. I that a successful season?
Yes that would be incredible. But June is 6.5 months away right now. We could just keep going back and back and back until we get a sub 1.41.0 in April but how realistic are we trying to be here?
If he runs sub 1:42 indoor, he simply has to book a flight to Australia and break the outdoor record in January/February. As many people said before, June to August means nothing in 2026.
…until we get a sub 1.41.0 in April but how realistic are we trying to be here?
I’m game. Penn Relays. Into a headwind on the backstretch. End his season in June.
of course I’m being silly, but my point is that some athletes peak hard and it’s better to hit while the iron’s hot rather than trying to force the athlete onto some kind of template. I’m not saying it’s a recipe for long term success. But I remember a time when people on Letsrun used to pine after someone from the US running like the East Africans. Unafraid and uncompromising. It probably won’t translate well into championship meets, but maybe he’s just letting r rip this year…
How do we know that he is even thinking about trying to have a long career?
Most pro athletes want a long career partially to maximize their lifetime earnings. Hoey probably is not concerned about that.
Maybe he is trying to maximize his lifetime ability right now. Push things and run as fast as possible/win races/set records asap. Strike now while the iron is hot.
He went through years and years of struggle with little to no improvement. So maybe he is thinking it is better to burn out trying to be the best he can be now than to fade away after a long career.
I like your thinking.
And Hoey obviously is cognizant of the fact that he spent a lot of "prime" years as a male 800m runner stagnant and out of the sport's collective consciousness until his career renaissance last year. He might not have too many more years of pushing this kind of intensity left (and he definitely won't if he keeps trying to go guns a-blazing while self-coached essentially year round).
As for Hoare, I think he has been tying himself mentally in knots before he even gets to the start line so much so that his tactics get totally muddled because he no longer trusts his in-race intuition. I feel like you actually can see him doing "calculations" during these races and then inevitably ending up disappointed with the results. Also, talking too much about unrealistic expectations on the podcast is doing him absolutely no favors.
And Hoey obviously is cognizant of the fact that he spent a lot of "prime" years as a male 800m runner stagnant and out of the sport's collective consciousness until his career renaissance last year. He might not have too many more years of pushing this kind of intensity left (and he definitely won't if he keeps trying to go guns a-blazing while self-coached essentially year round).
As for Hoare, I think he has been tying himself mentally in knots before he even gets to the start line so much so that his tactics get totally muddled because he no longer trusts his in-race intuition. I feel like you actually can see him doing "calculations" during these races and then inevitably ending up disappointed with the results. Also, talking too much about unrealistic expectations on the podcast is doing him absolutely no favors.
Yes, Hoare talking big game WR pace on the podcast, and then rocking up to the start line and trailing at the back from the gun doesn't make any sense.