I think California individuals will perform decently well at NXN next year. I predict that the top 10 individuals will be:
1. Elias Thronson, davis
2. Blake Bay, Fresno Christian
3. Aidan Antonio, Woodbridge
4. Cooper Stream, vacaville
5. Mattheus dos santos, San clemente
6. Connor bilodeau, Jesuit
7. Matteo Sanchez, Redondo union
8. Mario Montoya, Redondo Union
9. Yohan Anderson, San Clemente
10. Thomas Yohn, Woodbridge
Justification: Elias thronson had a monster race at Clovis to shatter the all time sophomore class Woodward Park record, and that was in early October. He was unfortunately injured before state which prevented him from showing his true fitness. I think he is a seriously underrated talent that could go low 8:50s for 3200m this track season, and I boldly predict he will be the best at XC next year. The next spot was between Blake bay, Aidan Antonio, and cooper stream, all having the fastest Woodward Park times of the returners, and I chose Blake bay to be on top due to a great 16th place finish at brooks, and he appears to be a stronger XC runner than Aidan antonio, beating him head to head at Clovis. Aidan Antonio has a great returning time and will likely have great track speed, but I'm skeptical of whether he can pull it off against bay or thronson in a true XC race. I put both ahead of cooper stream because while stream is the fastest returner from state, he was consistently beaten by bay and Antonio beforehand, and was beaten by them after state at nationals. I think mattheus dos santos is another very underrated runner; from freshmen track season to sophomore year XC, he went from a 4:53 1600 and 10:30 3200m to a 15:18 at Woodward Park, which is absolutely absurd improvement. He also peaked excellently at state and was injured in the preseason which may have prevented him from being in even better shape for state, so I think he will continue to have major improvements and make the top 5 individuals. Bilodeau feels like a strong XC runner running very low 15s at Clovis, and didn't pr at state seemingly due to a stomach cramp. I think if he continues at Jesuit, he can be very strong next year and run low 14:50s at state. For the next two, matteo sanchez and Mario montoya, both from Redondo, I put matteo Sanchez in front of Mario montoya for a similar reason as to why I put mattheus dos santos in front of his teammate, yohan anderson: while montoya and Anderson have consistently been good and steadily improving, dos santos and sanchez have had incredibly sharp improvements that I think indicate a higher fitness ceiling that will be seen next year. Montoya has been one of the best in California in 2025, but I'm skeptical of his improvement due to Redondo union's intensely high mileage, while I see matteo sanchez still developing under the same program. Again, this is just a prediction, so it is heavily influenced by my biased judgement. Yohan anderson has also ran under 15 at Woodward Park already, but I think other returners that are already ahead of him will stay ahead, while others that are right behind him will improve and pass him. He's shown signs of good and steady improvement, but I think the other individuals will be stay better despite it. Thomas Yohn takes the 10th prediction spot; he ran a 15:19 at Clovis, but similarly to thronson, he was injured before state and returned without being at 100%. Given that last year he was running in the mid 16s at state, he has made a big improvement, so I think he may continue that upward trend to sneak into this top 10 group. He also beat dos santos at Woodbridge and Clovis and was right behind him at OC champs, which boosts his position according to how I have dos santos predicted.
No Clark Gregory or Michael Scarince I see. I’d also be in the lookout for Adrian Cantu (15:17 Clovis -> 14:54 state) and Derek Luna. Lucas Alberts is also looking solid (tho idk if I’d put him at top 10), pure track guy to 15:17- a whole 42 second improvement from last season, he seems to be coming into form in xc. Jaxon Northcutt is also looking solid coming into the next season too.
Well even Bilodeau stays at Jesuit or goes back to Granite Bay he’d still would be a pretty solid runner. He ran 4:11 and 9:08 during his time at Granite Bay- even beating guys like Derek Luna and Adrian Cantu (who both happened to go under 15 at state) at the state meet last year. Just looking at his sophomore times prior to transferring to Jesuit, you could tell he would be a serious talent if he just kept at it.
Well even Bilodeau stays at Jesuit or goes back to Granite Bay he’d still would be a pretty solid runner. He ran 4:11 and 9:08 during his time at Granite Bay- even beating guys like Derek Luna and Adrian Cantu (who both happened to go under 15 at state) at the state meet last year. Just looking at his sophomore times prior to transferring to Jesuit, you could tell he would be a serious talent if he just kept at it.
Is there talk of him going back to Granite Bay? Seems most of the other guys didn't like him at Jesuit.
Well even Bilodeau stays at Jesuit or goes back to Granite Bay he’d still would be a pretty solid runner. He ran 4:11 and 9:08 during his time at Granite Bay- even beating guys like Derek Luna and Adrian Cantu (who both happened to go under 15 at state) at the state meet last year. Just looking at his sophomore times prior to transferring to Jesuit, you could tell he would be a serious talent if he just kept at it.
Is there talk of him going back to Granite Bay? Seems most of the other guys didn't like him at Jesuit.
Not sure why he would go back there while he’s currently on a nationally ranked team (especially with only 1 year left), but if he really goes back there, Jesuit has a possibility of not winning D2 state over Woodbridge and not going to NXN
This is news to me. I mean if Connor leaves he could honestly go to NxN on his own, as I’ve said, he was already a solid runner before transferring to Jesuit
Cliffnotes. Private school. Recruit all star talent outside of school boundaries. Avoid obvious dqs in track. And magic good team.
Cmon write a book on public school teams that do great with the kids they get bc live there.
NP had 2 major transfers well they were dominating. Jesuit has the same problem but lets not pretend other teams don't do the same thing.
Great Oak also had transfer Dodds (class of 2016) come in his junior year (the year before they won NXN), and that year GO’s top runner from the same class Gleeson transferred out. They also got another transfer Sawires-Yager (c/o 2020) who transferred in junior year and ran at NXN in 2018 and 2019 but didn’t score there either year. And Simone (c/o 2021) transferred to Greak Oak junior year (ended season early b/c of injury) and then to Newbury Park senior year
Marco Francoâs rise from Great Oakâs No. 5 runner to a Division 1 state qualifier earns him MileSplit Californiaâs 2025 Most Improved XC Boy of the Year.
Two teams that historically seem to do better than expected most years, and already have a solid returning 5 that aren't mentioned above:
Trabuco Hills Dresden Taylor 175.5 Lucan Clemons 174.6 Sebastian Palafox 170.5 Logan Jones 165.4 Ron Banchik 163.1
Crescenta Valley Isaac Johnson 178.5 Enzo Dik 176.5 Owen Burton 170.2 Izaac Rodriguez 165.0 Kanoa Moreno 154.4
There's a few more, but I am still working on the list. It can be hard to find 5 non-seniors with speed rating data.
San Clemente is another team that always does better than expected. In 2024, they weren’t expected to go to state after losing their top 6. But they ended up qualifying from a tough section. In 2025, based on preseason, they weren’t expected to go to NXN (not even top 4 for California in the national preseason rankings), but they ended up taking 3rd in the merge at state and qualifying for NXN. Shows that they have a really great program going.
You never know what Redondo Union will do. They lost 4 varsity seniors last year and they reloaded and took second in the merge today
Their 3rd 4th and 5th returners are 16:30+ in the 5k. In comparison, their returners from 2024 were 14:57, 15:04, 15:04, 15:22, and 15:33 in the 3 mile - which I think is significantly better. Still, it is wild that they went from this to winning D1 and getting the auto qual to NXN. Maybe they can do it again.
Next year it's gonna be 14:10 14:12 15:31 15:36 and 15:52 in the 3 mile, not as good but I can see that going 2nd in the state behind San Clemente plus maybe an NXN at large next year or even an auto qual
Looking at the state of D4 rn, Menlo could very will sneak into the podium again next season.
Foothill Technology looks to be the favorite for the state title in D4, but since Menlo only loses one senior, they could challenge for the title in that division too. Chaminade and La Canada are the teams to not count out since both of them are returning almost all of their scorers. Sage Creek almost won D4 last year. They lose 4 seniors but they return 3 young scorers. Maybe they will be a year away from winning D4
Beckman unfortunately missed NXN this year. I personally thought following losing 4 very fast varsity seniors (Horrocks, Barrera, Feaster, and Tenorio) that they would struggle to match their historic season. However, they proved to come back despite having no transfers. They lose Mason Nguyen who has been their obvious low stick, but Nguyen has been apparently injured yet again at the State Championships. I have no doubt, however, that they will be back this season yet again. I do hope they eventually qualify for NXN, because Beckman's come up has been quite fascinating to watch.
Beckman 2026 Varsity
12 Ryan Barris 15:18 (14:29)
12 Hassan Syed 15:41 (9:22/14:32)
11 Jacob Franco 15:45 (14:49)
12 Brandon Boatman 15:46
12 Samuel Forman 15:57
I wonder how they'll do after this year because their underclassman has been quite underwhelming. I predict that this team will be around where they were this year at the state meet, however who knows, Beckman used to get transfers every year, and they surprise us every year and make us think they'll be California favorites.
Beckman would have finished behind Mira Costa even if Nguyen won. Seems like Beckman peaks early and really tries to hold on at the end.
About the underclassmen, I don’t know what teams in CA have a great group of freshmen and sophomores. I think maybe Trabuco Hills does. And probably Redondo Union since they always seem to reload and they have 2 sophomores already leading the team, And some freshmen that can help the team in the future
Mountain View will have a solid team in fall 2027. MV frosh-soph class 3200 times
