No he won't. If she wins, he will disappear forever and if she loses he will hold up this regional race up as the ONLY reason she lost. Typical poor lrc troll.
This. It’s a very safe and easy bet to make that a true freshman will not win NCAA XC championships, it’s almost not even a prediction at all. So if he’s right, it’s like yeah okay man, what a great call. But if she wins, I would almost prefer that he does the disappearing act, but that has actually become less common for these types of trolls. What seems more likely these days is, she wins, someone bumps this thread, and OP doubles down and continues to talk about how his prediction wasn’t bad, or just shrugs his shoulders and says yeah I guess I was wrong, and never acknowledges how annoying he was about it.
LACCTiC just rated the performance at 14:48. Crazy fast, but not her fastest this season. I feel like she will be fine...she can have a bad race next weekend and still win.
LACCTiC went back and retroactively changed Jane’s TiC previously awarded at the Big12, from 14:42(iirc) to 14:39. How many races into the future does that potentially happen?
LACCTiC just rated the performance at 14:48. Crazy fast, but not her fastest this season. I feel like she will be fine...she can have a bad race next weekend and still win.
LACCTiC went back and retroactively changed Jane’s TiC previously awarded at the Big12, from 14:42(iirc) to 14:39. How many races into the future does that potentially happen?
BTW, as I said after the 14:42 TiC award, I thought that was probably a wee bit too generous, because it was based upon Naukot being in the race, and I think Naukot’s rating is probably a bit inflated because her track 10000m was awarded a TiC that exceeds the 5000m equivalent.
No he won't. If she wins, he will disappear forever and if she loses he will hold up this regional race up as the ONLY reason she lost. Typical poor lrc troll.
This. It’s a very safe and easy bet to make that a true freshman will not win NCAA XC championships, it’s almost not even a prediction at all. So if he’s right, it’s like yeah okay man, what a great call. But if she wins, I would almost prefer that he does the disappearing act, but that has actually become less common for these types of trolls. What seems more likely these days is, she wins, someone bumps this thread, and OP doubles down and continues to talk about how his prediction wasn’t bad, or just shrugs his shoulders and says yeah I guess I was wrong, and never acknowledges how annoying he was about it.
It's not a very safe and easy bet. The vast majority of Lets Runners think it's a foregone conclusion Jane will win. There's literally a thread with people predicting her margin of victory will be 30 seconds or more. In this thread, people are saying she ran easy today.
Will YOU come back to this thread to apologize to me if she loses?
No he won't. If she wins, he will disappear forever and if she loses he will hold up this regional race up as the ONLY reason she lost. Typical poor lrc troll.
This. It’s a very safe and easy bet to make that a true freshman will not win NCAA XC championships, it’s almost not even a prediction at all. So if he’s right, it’s like yeah okay man, what a great call. But if she wins, I would almost prefer that he does the disappearing act, but that has actually become less common for these types of trolls. What seems more likely these days is, she wins, someone bumps this thread, and OP doubles down and continues to talk about how his prediction wasn’t bad, or just shrugs his shoulders and says yeah I guess I was wrong, and never acknowledges how annoying he was about it.
Yeah, or he'll come back and say something like, "She would've won by 30 seconds instead of 2 if she hadn't run so hard in the regional."
8 days out, even if one didn't race, you would still do a hard workout around this time, especially as one would want to stay sharp for a 6k. BTW Doris ran 18:43, thus harping about Jane blowing herself out with 19:06 suggests Doris is similarly doomed...not sure why I even responded to this.
Largest margin by :00.6 seconds. Wow that's such a meaningful observation. Riley's performance actually has no relevance to Jane's. But you're moving the goal posts. You claimed Jane ran TOO hard, now you're only providing evidence to suggest she ran hard. We don't care that she ran hard for 6k eights days before another hard effort. She is an elite athlete and can handle two hard days that far apart. Don't say I didn't warn you.
How can Riley's performance have no relevance to Jane's? Aren't they teammates?
I'm not moving the goal posts. I opened this thread by writing "the goal is to advance with as little effort as possible." Too hard in a prelim is running faster than necessary to advance. Jane ran 40 seconds faster than she had to. That's too hard.
Because there are a myriad of variables involved in an individual's race and they are 2 different people.
You also are arbitrarily determining the goal. Or rather conflating a world prelim goal to the regional cross meet which as has been pointed is SEVERAL days before the final. Hence the GOAL is to do what is necessary to race your best at the national meet which involves a good effort around now. You don't know her training, you don't know her and Dilgeet's goals for today and just use irrelevant data points to pretend you have a modicum of reasoning. But you can change your handle and troll multiple threads and I'm sure will find other lame troll attempts as she rewrites NCAA records for her career.
No he won't. If she wins, he will disappear forever and if she loses he will hold up this regional race up as the ONLY reason she lost. Typical poor lrc troll.
This. It’s a very safe and easy bet to make that a true freshman will not win NCAA XC championships, it’s almost not even a prediction at all. So if he’s right, it’s like yeah okay man, what a great call. But if she wins, I would almost prefer that he does the disappearing act, but that has actually become less common for these types of trolls. What seems more likely these days is, she wins, someone bumps this thread, and OP doubles down and continues to talk about how his prediction wasn’t bad, or just shrugs his shoulders and says yeah I guess I was wrong, and never acknowledges how annoying he was about it.
You are taking this way too seriously. Please enjoy your life.
Kosgei didn't "hold back." Did you see the look on her face? Either she's a great thespian, or that gal was hurting. I'm saying that as someone who was maybe two feet away as she ran past. She absolutely fell apart over the last 2k.
I'm not so sure about this. Looked to me that she realized she could not win and had a big enough lead on the other girls to back off a bit. Yes, I was there also.
LACCTiC went back and retroactively changed Jane’s TiC previously awarded at the Big12, from 14:42(iirc) to 14:39. How many races into the future does that potentially happen?
BTW, as I said after the 14:42 TiC award, I thought that was probably a wee bit too generous, because it was based upon Naukot being in the race, and I think Naukot’s rating is probably a bit inflated because her track 10000m was awarded a TiC that exceeds the 5000m equivalent.
The algorithm for the season is re-run every time I add more results. Ratings usually back-adjust by a few seconds.
For what it’s worth, a lot of people were saying the algorithm was too generous when it gave Parker Valby a 14:52. I believe she ran exactly that at BU.
The 10k adjustments are too generous, likely because a lot of 10k PBs are from slower conference races. I should go back and make sure those are not being taken into account when setting TiCs. I don’t believe they are — I use a different hidden rating to adjust the TiCs than the ability rating shown on the website. Either way, one persons rating will not affect a TiC that much — the course’s adjustment is calculated from the entire field.
From video above: Diljeet interview at 12:25, sounds as if Jane has way more to show...She looked pretty darn relaxed in that "race." First sign of Jenna Hutchins as well around 15:50 mark (award ceremony) but I would think it is almost certain she is injured and/or not recovered enough from an injury to race.
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.
OK, I just watched the race. Jane cruised, start to finish.. That race had zero effect on her ability to come back next week at nationals. It was a glorified workout.
How can Riley's performance have no relevance to Jane's? Aren't they teammates?
I'm not moving the goal posts. I opened this thread by writing "the goal is to advance with as little effort as possible." Too hard in a prelim is running faster than necessary to advance. Jane ran 40 seconds faster than she had to. That's too hard.
Because there are a myriad of variables involved in an individual's race and they are 2 different people.
You also are arbitrarily determining the goal. Or rather conflating a world prelim goal to the regional cross meet which as has been pointed is SEVERAL days before the final. Hence the GOAL is to do what is necessary to race your best at the national meet which involves a good effort around now. You don't know her training, you don't know her and Dilgeet's goals for today and just use irrelevant data points to pretend you have a modicum of reasoning. But you can change your handle and troll multiple threads and I'm sure will find other lame troll attempts as she rewrites NCAA records for her career.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
same team + same coach + same training = relevance
The purpose of running regionals isn't to run your best. The goal is to advance. I didn't make that up. Regionals are literally used to qualify for nattys.
Don't expect any sympathy from me when you're crying next weekend.
OK, I just watched the race. Jane cruised, start to finish.. That race had zero effect on her ability to come back next week at nationals. It was a glorified workout.
Check Jane's splits. She got slower each 2k loop. She was barely hanging on.
OK, I just watched the race. Jane cruised, start to finish.. That race had zero effect on her ability to come back next week at nationals. It was a glorified workout.
Check Jane's splits. She got slower each 2k loop. She was barely hanging on.
Barely hanging on is not the way any reasonable person would describe her race.