Yes!!! Hoping he does. He’s fantastic for the sport. His range is incredible. Absolute joy to watch his 3,000 meter record. That was an insane run. Can only wonder what he will do to the 5,000 record. Can’t wait.
Not sure, but of course I’d bet against it. I think he only gets the Mile.
Hard to know now, but I think he could have taken the mile in 2023 without his jet lag, and longer draft from pacers and less wind…
Even with jet lag, bad pacing and excessive wind, he missed the WR by .6 seconds. Based on your post, it seems he was capable of sub-3:42 that day, under the right conditions.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
You have to admire the hubris and confidence here, I wonder how much of this is just for the press vs what he truly believes.
The 1500 and 5000m records in particular are no joke. El G - still in the middle of his career prime in terms of record breaking ability tried multiple times to break 3.26 and couldn't - even despite some wild attempts (especially at Rieti).
With respect to the 5000m WR - what's the one thing in common 3 of the last 4 record holders had in common? They were also WR holders over 10000m (JC, Kene, Geb). Komen is the outlier there and Jakob has commonality there with the 3000m ability, but my feeling is that when you are talking about running under 12.35, it falls more into the aerobic capacity/threshold side of excellence vs the anaerobic one (where his particular forte sits).
What I think raises my eyebrows is wanting to do it in one season. That could end in absolute disaster. He has just lost an entire season to an overuse injury - and that makes sense given what we know about his training philosophy which is very little anaerobic work past his threshold with the flipside being he needs considerable volume just below it to generate his fitness/potential. So this approach I'm not sure fits well with two distances like the 1500m and 5000m which require different approaches. I know the counter already - "but he ran 7.17 in the same season he ran 3.26" but the 3000m and 5000m are very different events at that level of running. His workout volume and specificity for the 3000m would be virtually the same as it is for the 1500m. That is not the case with the 5000m.
Honestly, I can't fathom a scenario where his body holds up. Last season we had the rumors of a 5000m attempt (in Oslo) and it coincided with him breaking down. Was that coincidence? Maybe. But it's also possible the demands of trying to be in sub 3.26 and sub 12.35 shape at basically the same time (or within a few months of each other) were too much. He's not a robot or superhuman.
I've never felt he had the anaerobic power to get the 1500m WR. El G was a very different runner - there is a recent thread on his training, go and compare that to what Jakob posts from his training if you need the evidence of that. The problem he has is by hanging on to the 1500m record he might legitimately hurt his chances of the 5000 - assuming he actually is capable of it (because the reality is as of today he has a PR that is 13 seconds slower). Time is running out. No athlete at this level has more than 3-4 seasons of world record ability and that is across almost every track discipline. This is likely the last season of his window, though because he lost 2025 that might extend to next season for the 5000.
If I was him and assuming I get back to my 2024 fitness - Mile WR is the priority. It's a legendary record and it's much weaker than the 1500 and the 5000m. And it bumps out an El G record and puts you right beside him plus you then own this real estate in the record book from the mile through the 3000m. Plus I think the mile record is achievable with more of the training he would do for the 5000m. Then you can see what 5000m opportunities are available (late season Zurich, Brussels) and then completely focus on 2027 for the 5.
what a pile of garbage. He ran that 12:48 at 20, and he destroyed the field including the WR holder and someone who would go on to run 12:36. He could've run 12:40 for sure on that day and he's only much stronger since then.
What you failed to grasp despite all the rambling was that the 3k and 5k are indeed very close. They are both 90% aerobic. No human running 7:17 can't break 12:35, period. And Jakob already said that he's a better at the 5k than the 1500m, so he's more like a 3k/5k guy than 1500/5k.
As for WR breaking ability, it's funny you used El g as an example, because let me remind you that El g was still running 3:26 at 28 and athletes of his era were known to train very hard which led to burn-out and injuries unlike the double threshold approach. Notable example was Komen. With the advancement in training and recovery, athletes are expected to have a longer peak than in the past. Jakob is also known for not overtraining. In fact he even lamented that people trained too hard.
And before his injury, he'd already gotten in better shape than last year at the same time. Last year he ran 3:45 in May, being paced by Kerr the whole way at Pre, but this year he was already running 3:45 indoors (WR) in FEB which was the definite proof he's in far better shape this year before the setback. If he comes back healthy in 2026, I see no reason why he can't run faster than 2024. I mean, with such a sub-optimal build-up, he's only 4 secs slower than the winner, which also showed again he's more of a 5k guy.
I also refuse to believe he can't get the 1500m WR due to lack of anaerobic power. 1500 is still primarily aerobic, only to a lesser extent than the 5k. But it's still about endurance. True, it may not be a walk in the park like the mile/5k WR, but with his steady progression over the years as well as the fact he's only less than 0.75s away from it, it's still possible assuming his injuries are behind him.
People like Almgren/jakob that measures everything knows within second(s) how fast they will/can run. Almgren mentioned in some podcast how he was like 1-2 seconds off in predicting his 5000m time. And he also mentioned that Jakob wouldnt have much problem breaking the 5000m WR at the shape he had before he got injured this spring.
I think he can almost certainly get the 5000m world record. I also think he can probably get the 1500m and mile world records. I highly doubt he can get both in the same year. The events are too different.
People like Almgren/jakob that measures everything knows within second(s) how fast they will/can run. Almgren mentioned in some podcast how he was like 1-2 seconds off in predicting his 5000m time. And he also mentioned that Jakob wouldnt have much problem breaking the 5000m WR at the shape he had before he got injured this spring.
1. Your post collides with what Jakob repeatedly has stressed -that he cannot predict his own times in races, simply because he rarely does all out (fast) training sessions…
2. Jakob clearly has surprised himself in races, both negatively and positively. An example of the latter is his 3000m WR, where he hit a time he pre race said would not be reached “in this century”. On the negative side the examples also are many: his 12 th placing in WC u20 xc, his HM debut (where he wouldn’t rule out a WR, after also saying it could go both ways),and maybe also his entire 2022 season…
3. Yes, also Jakob thinks he can break the 5000m WR. But because I believe his words about not knowing things based on his training, I think he cannot be too sure…
4. We don’t know what kind of guy Jakob is (talent wise, and partly training wise). Is he f.x more Bekele like than Komen like, or is he less a long distance guy than even Komen? -The Kenyan smashed the 3000m WR, but only marginally broke the 5000. Will the same be Jakob’s destiny (and 10000m/HM way out of reach)? Or is he even more of a 1500/3000m guy than Komen, based on his 3.26 vs a 3.29 PR (Komen) and unable of a sub 12.40? Or can he follow the spirit of Hassan and make a transition to the long events? Well, I don’t know, but hope the best-we have to wait and see, but why people think they know the answer here in advance is beyond me…
Only distance athlete ever? to win gold medals in 4 consecutive calendar years (2021-2024)
Crazy impressive stats, though the last one is kind of contrived, as the 4 year WC/Oly streak was only possible thanks to Covid. Runners of the past didn't have this opportunity so it's an unfair comparison.
Crazy impressive stats, though the last one is kind of contrived, as the 4 year WC/Oly streak was only possible thanks to Covid. Runners of the past didn't have this opportunity so it's an unfair comparison.
Only sub 3:27, 3:44, 4:44 7:20, 7:55, 12:50 runner ever
Andreas Almgren, at 30 years old and an injury list that is more severe than Jakobs, has just broken the European record in the 5000 and half marathon in the same season. Yet you have people here talking about how Jakob is never going to be fast again when he's much younger and have had far less severe injuries or that it would be impossible to be in peak 1500 and 5000 shape at the same time.
Someone like Komen, who has a similar profile to Jakob, ran his PBs in the 1500, mile and 5000 within a span of 10 days and his two mile PB a month before that.
One thing that might help in this goal is foregoing XC and the indoor season (although he probably won’t). Then, he could place all his baskets on 2026 as a record breaking season (just like 2023 was and 2024 to a lesser extent). He ran 3:27.95 in early June and then ran 3:43.73/7:23.63 as a double in the poor conditions of Eugene. I could see a repeat of that were he to stay healthy. He probably won’t though.
I hope he won't cos I quite enjoy watching him run his body into the ground for mickey mouse titles.
Olympic and WC golds are Mickey Mouse? You really are one bitter little Myron.