Bekele was literally 42at the last Olympics. He would of easily won if he didn't have an injury. He basically just jogged through an injury just to finish and was less than 6 minutes off the leader. Would be an easy win against a weak field. He would manage 15 seconds per mile faster without the injury.
Rupp isn't Bekele, but still can easily make another Olympics if he wants.
This is a bizarre take. Firstly, the counterfactual with Bekele. 6 minutes is a long time in the marathon. Bekele also hadn't won a a WMM since 2019 and only podiumed once in that 21-24 Olympic cycle, so even if he was fully healthy the idea that he would have "an easy win" is really bizarre. Like, you can hold it as a personal belief but there's no evidence for it.
Secondly, I think it's anything but "easy" for Rupp to make the Olympic team. What has changed about American Marathoning isn't the peak of talent but the depth of talent in the past few years. America has always had a good marathoner or at most two. Just Galen. Galen and Meb. Meb and Ryan. Just Ryan or just Meb. So on and so forth. Abdi Abdirahman maybe deserves a mention too. People point to Meb or Abdi missing one marathon cycle and making the next, but that was fundamentally different because that 3rd spot and even sometimes that 2nd spot just wasn't very competitive in many years. Maybe you needed some luck, one or two guys have an off day, and your shot at 3rd is solid.
Conner Mantz is the current good marathoner. But behind him, there are a lot of guys who are all about as good as each other. Zouhair Talbi will be American, he's got a 2:05 PB. Wesley Kiptoo beat Rupp in Chicago, he'll be there. Ryan Ford, 2:08:00 PB and also beat Rupp in Chicago, he'll be there. That's not to mention Clayton Young. Not to mention Biya Simbassa who has a 2:06:53 PB and beat Rupp at the last trials. Not to mention CJ Albertson who beat Rupp at the last trials. Assuming nothing from Alex Maier mid 2:08 PB or Matt Richtman 2:07 high PB. Assuming that absolutely nothing becomes of any of Hilary Bor, Joe Klecker, Casey Clinger, Charles Hicks, Creed Thompson, etc.
It's widely believed that the 3rd place finisher in the next OTQ will need to run in the 2:07s on a flat course to make the team, and if Conner, Clayton, Biya, Zouhair, have a good day, maybe not even 2:07 high. Galen hasn't gone under 2:08 since 2021. Writing off Galen Rupp entirely is unwise, but to say he "can easily" make the Olympic team is probably even more of a stretch than writing him off entirely.
You don’t think Paul chelimo will eventually figure out the marathon, or also woody Kincaid may move up by then.
This is a bizarre take. Firstly, the counterfactual with Bekele. 6 minutes is a long time in the marathon. Bekele also hadn't won a a WMM since 2019 and only podiumed once in that 21-24 Olympic cycle, so even if he was fully healthy the idea that he would have "an easy win" is really bizarre. Like, you can hold it as a personal belief but there's no evidence for it.
Secondly, I think it's anything but "easy" for Rupp to make the Olympic team. What has changed about American Marathoning isn't the peak of talent but the depth of talent in the past few years. America has always had a good marathoner or at most two. Just Galen. Galen and Meb. Meb and Ryan. Just Ryan or just Meb. So on and so forth. Abdi Abdirahman maybe deserves a mention too. People point to Meb or Abdi missing one marathon cycle and making the next, but that was fundamentally different because that 3rd spot and even sometimes that 2nd spot just wasn't very competitive in many years. Maybe you needed some luck, one or two guys have an off day, and your shot at 3rd is solid.
Conner Mantz is the current good marathoner. But behind him, there are a lot of guys who are all about as good as each other. Zouhair Talbi will be American, he's got a 2:05 PB. Wesley Kiptoo beat Rupp in Chicago, he'll be there. Ryan Ford, 2:08:00 PB and also beat Rupp in Chicago, he'll be there. That's not to mention Clayton Young. Not to mention Biya Simbassa who has a 2:06:53 PB and beat Rupp at the last trials. Not to mention CJ Albertson who beat Rupp at the last trials. Assuming nothing from Alex Maier mid 2:08 PB or Matt Richtman 2:07 high PB. Assuming that absolutely nothing becomes of any of Hilary Bor, Joe Klecker, Casey Clinger, Charles Hicks, Creed Thompson, etc.
It's widely believed that the 3rd place finisher in the next OTQ will need to run in the 2:07s on a flat course to make the team, and if Conner, Clayton, Biya, Zouhair, have a good day, maybe not even 2:07 high. Galen hasn't gone under 2:08 since 2021. Writing off Galen Rupp entirely is unwise, but to say he "can easily" make the Olympic team is probably even more of a stretch than writing him off entirely.
You don’t think Paul chelimo will eventually figure out the marathon, or also woody Kincaid may move up by then.
I just don’t see Woody being a good marathoner. In every world or Olympic 5000 and 10000 he has been in, he is routinely dropped long before the bell. Not a great sign but I’m hoping I’m wrong as he seems like a cool dude.