Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?

Kerr was DFL due to being hurt this year and had Covid in 2022. Those are legitimate reasons

El Guerrouj or Lagat, both 3:26 guys…

Hocker talked about his Stockholm race in his LRC interview in Tokyo. He said he was cooked by jetlag in Stockholm, and there were other factors which made that race not indicative of his fitness at the time.

You said “He just ran the second fastest championship 5k ever.” That is a direct quote. Nowhere in the post I quoted did you say “second fastest championship RACES.”

You responded “glad we’re on the same page” to 800 dude’s post where he claimed that “no runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.” If you don’t agree with him on that, you aren’t on the same page.

Hocker said in the press conference and interviews before Stockholm that he was there to win and to run fast. He wouldn’t have flown to Sweden from the States if he didn’t care about the race. Maybe the 13:09 was a bad day, but giving him 12:36 based on his Tokyo performance is ludicrous and reinforces my point that you don’t know history.

First of all, I said "the Hocker we just saw." The entire premise of this conversation is that runners are not always at their best.

None of the runners you listed has ever had a kick like Hocker's. Heck, El Guerrouj closed the 1500 in Athens in 51.91, but he was in the lead at the bell, ran every step in lane one, and it was off a pedestrian pace. Farah ran 50.89 once, which people lost their minds about at the time, but that was in a 14-something race where it was clearly a stunt to see what he could do. Again, lane one the whole way, no traffic, just running one lap as fast as he could.

I think you're getting carried away by the history attached to these names. We've watched them, idolized them, talked about them for decades, so they're larger than life. Hocker was just another decent American until recently, so it sounds absurd to say none of those guys could beat him. But if you actually look at their body of work, there is nothing to indicate that any of them would've had much of a chance in a sub-13 race against a guy who can close in 52 seconds from lane 2.

It's interesting to speculate about training differences between eras. There is so much more emphasis these days on true sprint training (including plyos and weights) for distance runners. Perhaps the great milers of my era could've had better kicks with modern training. Farah (and Salazar) really showed people the benefits of that kind of work, but Farah never had to do it off of the kind of paces that people are running today.

As for Diamond League races, they really don't have anything to do with this discussion. I acknowledged that peak Jakob could probably run away from Hocker with pacers. But at sub-13 pace, the energy cost of leading is over one second per lap, so Jakob can't run away in a championship. (It seems like people never want to admit this.) The question then becomes whether there is a kicking distance that would work for him. Given what Hocker can do in the last lap, even in a sub 13 or sub 3:30 race, I don't think there is any strategy that would give Jakob a win. (Again, against Hocker on this day.)

Peak Jakob's only hope would be if someone else acted as a rabbit and made it a 12:3X race.

Time will tell if this race was career prime Hocker or not. Did he peak for this WC? Sure but that doesn't mean he's hit his career prime yet. He could possibly have faster times, and more wins, in his future. My point being that the OP may be asking if non-prime Hocker could beat prime JI. Tough to say since there are valid points both ways but I don't see why we can't crown him as the best right now. He just proved he's earned it.

Hocker doesn’t have a devastating kick (when he goes all out all the way like others there are a lot of examples of no superior kick). This kick thing is a construction -if Kerr and Jakob let themselves slip that far back they also would have a superior kick. Beamish, El-Bakkali, Yifter, Ovett, Snell -all of them have a lot of races that show that the kick thing is just a way of (wrongly) disposing one’s efforts, and thus making “kick”, “turn over”, leg speed” as the worst myths in the running history.

Hocker won the 5000m because he was the strongest athlete that day, with more left in the tank than everybody else.

It is an interesting thought experiment, but either way there is no asterisk. Maybe Injured Ingebrigtsen was the result of all the training to get to Peak Ingebrigtsen. We don't know. Injury is part of the sport. Hopefully everyone is good in 2027.

Peak Jakob is about 2 sec faster than Hocker in the 1500m if you consider that Jakob drafted until around 1050m in his DL Monaco 2024 PB race whereas Hocker drafted until around 1450m in his OG 2024 PB race.

Likewise is Jakob more than 6 seconds faster than Hocker in the 3000m if you consider that Jakob drafted for about 1950m in his Silesia 2024 WR race whereas Hocker drafted for around 2400m in his Millrose 2025 PB race.

A peak shape Jakob wouldn´t need run a sub 12:50 to neutralize Hocker´s kick. If Jakob runs a fast last 1000m in fore example a 13:15 race I think he will have the upper hand.

BUT we don´t know if Jakob can come back to his best shape AND we don´t know if Hocker improves further so interesting to see what will happen in the 5000m in the next few years.

I agree. See my post #70

Hocker´s 7:23 was peak Hocker! He has never run a faster race relatively.

Hocker has only run to really fast races in his career. His 3:27 in Paris AND his above 3000m.

He has run several paced 5000m races but never been even close to the quality of his 7:23 indoors in the 3000m.

Hocker can´t run a 52 last lap if Jakob runs a 2.21 last 1000m BUT Jakob can.

See the numbers from Budapest 2023 in Hobbyhurdler´s post #5 above.

I don’t think Hocker’s improvement is unreasonable or suspicious. He ran 3:31 just after his 20th birthday and closed a 7:46 3k in 12 flat for the last 100 as a teenager, he always had the talent and speed for the 5k. I mean the guy won footlocker and ran 1:50 in high school running 30 miles a week, just ridiculous talent.

However, he mentioned in 2024 shifting his training from 800/1500 to 1500/5k. He ran 12:58 in 2024 but ran poorly at the Olympic trials. This year he continued to make aerobic progress and ran a 7:23 3k, which is faster than Farah, Bekele, or Lagat ever ran. (Albeit they all could’ve run that fast with the technological advances of today’s era)

Hocker is approaching the 5k from the speed side of things, but he’s clearly an all time great 3k talent and if he focuses on it in his peak next year I believe he could break 7:20.

Hocker ran 52+ for the last 400m running in the 2nd lane. He would have closed in 51 in the 1st lane, and he did not look at all like he was straining. He went flying by the whole pack like they were running backwards. I believe Hocker could have closed in 50 if he had to, maybe a bit faster. He ran to win, and was not doing a 400m time trial.

In a 12:50+ race Hocker was unbeatable. In a 12:40 race, who knows?

In response to your question, no Hocker probably cannot beat peak Jakob in a fast race. There is close to no one in history who could do that.

In response to your commentary, it never even occurred to me to crown him as the "best". He's this year's world champion which is an amazing accomplishment, well deserved and adds to his resume as a historically accomplished USA runner. You, sir, must have a lot of asterisks in your notes.

There is no evidence at all that Hocker is a 3:26, 7:19, 12:45 runner.

Everyone agress that Hocker is at his peak at the big champs.

His 3:27 last in Paris must be run at his peak AND as I have shown several times before if you want to compare these two competitors you must do it at EQUAL TERMS: And then Hocker is a 3:28 runner. See my post # 70.

3000m: Hocker´s Millrose 3000m at 7:23 was by far his relatively fastest race ever so how can think he is able to run 7:19?

5000m: I think he can run faster than his current PB but it is uncertain how much faster. When he tried to go with the fast guys in DL this year he ended up running 13:09 AND when he shortly after the Millrose 3000m ran a paced 5000m he just dipped under 13.

Stepping back, it's an interesting question, but a little discouraging to already be discussing it right after the championships have ended.

Hocker is the WORLD CHAMPION in the 5000m. Last year, he was the OLYMPIC CHAMPION in the 1500m. He's got a shot to be the very best American (middle) distance running in history.

Why raise the bar right away? By definition, there's only one greatest ever championship performance; it's usually not going to be the one from this year. Starting this thread just to say that peak Jakob was better (a sentiment most of us agree with) is pointless and even disrespectful. Hocker entered Worlds, not some hypothetical tournament of champions. Let his gold medal breathe a little before making comparisons you already know the answer to.

There’s plenty of evidence. 3:27 with rounds the days before and a 39 last 300, points to the potential to run 3:26.

7:23 in February, while not being peaked does suggest faster potential, again, 7:19-7:21 wouldn’t surprise me.

12:58 with a 25.5 last 200 suggest at least 12:45-12:50 fitness (same as what Nico and Graham run, not that crazy to think)

Yes, and don't forget Hocker's momentum was interrupted in the Olympic final. He could have run even faster that day.