Don’t fall into this trap. In 2024 DL winners were Jakob, Hoare, Komen, Yared, Kerr, Habz. In 2023, Yared and Jakob. So you go back to 2022 for when a DL meeting winner actually won Worlds. And that was against a semi-laughable Rabat field before getting crushed in Oslo. It’s about getting it right at Worlds.
Don’t fall into this trap. In 2024 DL winners were Jakob, Hoare, Komen, Yared, Kerr, Habz. In 2023, Yared and Jakob. So you go back to 2022 for when a DL meeting winner actually won Worlds. And that was against a semi-laughable Rabat field before getting crushed in Oslo. It’s about getting it right at Worlds.
This is the time of year when Hocker starts 'praying really hard'.
Gotta get back in good books with the almighty if he wants that shove over the line again.
Don’t fall into this trap. In 2024 DL winners were Jakob, Hoare, Komen, Yared, Kerr, Habz. In 2023, Yared and Jakob. So you go back to 2022 for when a DL meeting winner actually won Worlds. And that was against a semi-laughable Rabat field before getting crushed in Oslo. It’s about getting it right at Worlds.
So then how can you take any predictions in this thread seriously? You’ve just admitted it’s about getting it right at worlds, that’s really vague
Don’t fall into this trap. In 2024 DL winners were Jakob, Hoare, Komen, Yared, Kerr, Habz. In 2023, Yared and Jakob. So you go back to 2022 for when a DL meeting winner actually won Worlds. And that was against a semi-laughable Rabat field before getting crushed in Oslo. It’s about getting it right at Worlds.
So then how can you take any predictions in this thread seriously? You’ve just admitted it’s about getting it right at worlds, that’s really vague
I’ll just go with George Mills, dude MIGHT get it right at Worlds this year
So then how can you take any predictions in this thread seriously? You’ve just admitted it’s about getting it right at worlds, that’s really vague
You evaluate how the guys look going into the race and their strengths/weaknesses. This year is a little different because Worlds is last. Kerr and Hocker similar to last year are in hibernation but have put together solid performances and we know they peak well. Last year only Jakob really impressed in Monaco and that’s why it was a little surprising Yared did bounce back for a medal. His USAs was pretty strong and he had the second best PB (3:43 mile) in the field. This year Laros has looked really good in a few style of races and at 800/5000. If he runs in Zurich, we’ll still have the mystery of Kerr/Hocker/Jakob but if he definitively beats Nuguse, Koech, Habz and the Cheruiyots it’s more akin to Jakobs position going in last year. And that’s without being reliant on a provably bad frontrunning tactic.
So then how can you take any predictions in this thread seriously? You’ve just admitted it’s about getting it right at worlds, that’s really vague
You evaluate how the guys look going into the race and their strengths/weaknesses. This year is a little different because Worlds is last. Kerr and Hocker similar to last year are in hibernation but have put together solid performances and we know they peak well. Last year only Jakob really impressed in Monaco and that’s why it was a little surprising Yared did bounce back for a medal. His USAs was pretty strong and he had the second best PB (3:43 mile) in the field. This year Laros has looked really good in a few style of races and at 800/5000. If he runs in Zurich, we’ll still have the mystery of Kerr/Hocker/Jakob but if he definitively beats Nuguse, Koech, Habz and the Cheruiyots it’s more akin to Jakobs position going in last year. And that’s without being reliant on a provably bad frontrunning tactic.
Going into Tokyo, Hocker doesn’t look great. He already has at least three other runners who can match his “kick” Strand, Koech, and Laros ran essentially the same race he did at USA’s last year. Hocker won last year in dominating fashion, this year he was beat in dominating fashion by two other runners. Not a good sign that he got 3rd. Kerr has his two GST wins but looked a little flat in London. I don’t know how it can be anymore complicated than that. Hocker and Kerr aren’t favorites other than “well they won worlds/olympics before” which is fair, but that goes against your post.
You evaluate how the guys look going into the race and their strengths/weaknesses. This year is a little different because Worlds is last. Kerr and Hocker similar to last year are in hibernation but have put together solid performances and we know they peak well. Last year only Jakob really impressed in Monaco and that’s why it was a little surprising Yared did bounce back for a medal. His USAs was pretty strong and he had the second best PB (3:43 mile) in the field. This year Laros has looked really good in a few style of races and at 800/5000. If he runs in Zurich, we’ll still have the mystery of Kerr/Hocker/Jakob but if he definitively beats Nuguse, Koech, Habz and the Cheruiyots it’s more akin to Jakobs position going in last year. And that’s without being reliant on a provably bad frontrunning tactic.
Going into Tokyo, Hocker doesn’t look great. He already has at least three other runners who can match his “kick” Strand, Koech, and Laros ran essentially the same race he did at USA’s last year. Hocker won last year in dominating fashion, this year he was beat in dominating fashion by two other runners. Not a good sign that he got 3rd. Kerr has his two GST wins but looked a little flat in London. I don’t know how it can be anymore complicated than that. Hocker and Kerr aren’t favorites other than “well they won worlds/olympics before” which is fair, but that goes against your post.
total disagreement
Hocker is perfectly poised.
Laros too.
Kerr also.
all three took off the heat a bit as they came to a boil.
you dont want to peak one month and hold it.
some / most of the boards better contributors do not understand peaking nor what constitutes a very solid contributing effort along the way.
Laros is the one that may have peaked too early ...
but coach seems to be on top of it.
all 3 have the noyable 5k wins of late which is oerfect.
jonathan said that laros has not run sub 13 5k, but he will in the next few years, which means jonathan has yet to learn about the sport.
with half marathon cross couctry 3k results, 125x is an absolute given.
that said jonathan is the best commentary in our sport visible that is.
Going into Tokyo, Hocker doesn’t look great. He already has at least three other runners who can match his “kick” Strand, Koech, and Laros ran essentially the same race he did at USA’s last year. Hocker won last year in dominating fashion, this year he was beat in dominating fashion by two other runners. Not a good sign that he got 3rd. Kerr has his two GST wins but looked a little flat in London. I don’t know how it can be anymore complicated than that. Hocker and Kerr aren’t favorites other than “well they won worlds/olympics before” which is fair, but that goes against your post.
total disagreement
Hocker is perfectly poised.
Laros too.
Kerr also.
all three took off the heat a bit as they came to a boil.
you dont want to peak one month and hold it.
some / most of the boards better contributors do not understand peaking nor what constitutes a very solid contributing effort along the way.
Laros is the one that may have peaked too early ...
but coach seems to be on top of it.
all 3 have the noyable 5k wins of late which is oerfect.
jonathan said that laros has not run sub 13 5k, but he will in the next few years, which means jonathan has yet to learn about the sport.
with half marathon cross couctry 3k results, 125x is an absolute given.
that said jonathan is the best commentary in our sport visible that is.
So many people gish gallop when the reality is that Hocker has not won a single 1500/Mile race since Paris. He isn’t a favorite at all other than he has the experience of winning one before.
Kerr maybe. It was a much slower second lap, and the Worlds will be 3.27 high.
But he’s looking superb. Firstly the Bowerman, then tonight.
Winning is a habit, and he has it.
I highly highly doubt Worlds will be run in 3:27. There has only been one fast outlier race this year which was that Paris race with Habz, Koech and Mills, and we are all still scratching our heads about that one.
There hasn't been many super fast 3:29/28 races to suggest this is now the new normal. 3:30/31 has often been the average for a fast race this year. In fact I would say we've already seen a downward trend in fast races since Nuguse failed heroics at Pre and USA's. And then Oli Hoare recently too.
But in a 3:30 race, Laros looks very good indeed.
I bet it will be bunched up after 2.5 laps 2:25. Someone could go 500m out- 27 gets them strung out a bit and gets them to 1200 around 2:52.
Maybe Laros goes even quicker :38 last 300m. What is the fastest 300m finish in a sub 3:32 race?
Laros 1st or 2nd depending on if he gets by in inside lane or is boxed.
I agree with those saying there isn't one single favorite but rather a small group of contenders, any of whom can win depending on the day and how the race unfolds.
Re: Hocker, I'm not going to discount a guy who is:
last year's Olympic champion
someone with an established track record of peaking at global championships
a runner who set PBs this year at 800m, 3k, and 5k
Whereas others see "someone who hasn't won a 1500m/mile race since Paris," I see someone who consistently runs his best when it matters the most and has a faster 1500m SB going into this year's world championships than he had going into last year's Olympics.
Re: Laros, if folks want to insist on picking one guy as the favorite, he's a good pick. He's looked fantastic this year. But so did T. Cheruiyot in 2021 and Jakob in 2022-2024. The favorite hasn't won gold in this event the last four years. Being the favorite doesn't mean anything when everyone is on that starting line, other than maybe having a target on your back.
Personally, I'm still holding out hope that Nuguse wins next week in Zurich and goes on to win gold in Tokyo. I realize the odds are against him, but a man can hope.
The only thing I can guarantee is this: we're in for a thrilling final in Tokyo!
I agree with those saying there isn't one single favorite but rather a small group of contenders, any of whom can win depending on the day and how the race unfolds.
Re: Hocker, I'm not going to discount a guy who is:
last year's Olympic champion
someone with an established track record of peaking at global championships
a runner who set PBs this year at 800m, 3k, and 5k
Whereas others see "someone who hasn't won a 1500m/mile race since Paris," I see someone who consistently runs his best when it matters the most and has a faster 1500m SB going into this year's world championships than he had going into last year's Olympics.
Re: Laros, if folks want to insist on picking one guy as the favorite, he's a good pick. He's looked fantastic this year. But so did T. Cheruiyot in 2021 and Jakob in 2022-2024. The favorite hasn't won gold in this event the last four years. Being the favorite doesn't mean anything when everyone is on that starting line, other than maybe having a target on your back.
Personally, I'm still holding out hope that Nuguse wins next week in Zurich and goes on to win gold in Tokyo. I realize the odds are against him, but a man can hope.
The only thing I can guarantee is this: we're in for a thrilling final in Tokyo!
Phanuel Koech looked incredibly impressive in his previous two races, but here he was beatable. A question remains with him whether he can run rounds. The American Koech has proven he can do that and close with the best of them. Even with Jakob out or not at full strength, this should be an amazing World Champs 1500m. Nuguse is always a threat to win if he gets the tactics right. Laros has been a bit unhealthy but looks like his current ability is almost as great as his talent for the first time. Hocker has far more strength than in previous years, and so once he sharpens, he will be very tough to beat if he gets another inside track. Kerr is always ready for champs. Wightman does not look ready right now. Strand should be in the mix. He has a live kick. I can see this going a dozen different ways with the podium but figure on sub-1:49 close if it is another 3:30 race with no strong early pace. And remember that Jakob almost never loses races where he gets to draft like the other guys. Do not count him out this year. Maybe Nuguse takes the pace, a bit harder than 3:30 to make it tougher on Laros, Jakob sits in second and pushes hard the last 800. He could take it as well.
Laros is for sure a favorite - multiple rounds, a different style race to a diamond league, I would still put both Hocker and Kerr ahead of him, but he has a solid chance, top 3 for sure.
I think the favorite talk is jumping the gun a bit.
His kick looked incredible today - 25.5 last 200m.
It was a sensational finishing kick but remember Hocker’s sensational finishing kick at the Olympics. The trick is being able to replicate that on a consistent basis and be in the position to do so to win.