BooHoo gave us a false choice. But I still didn't question the heartfelt sentiment, giving BooHoo the benefit of the doubt, as I have done with Houlihan.
Except there is no doubt
Are you so sure about BooHoo's heartfelt sentiment? I detected ambiguity, but decided only to expose the false choice.
Regarding Houlihan's conviction, there was doubt among the 3-person CAS arbitration panel in their split decision whether the test results were properly reported as an AAF, and/or whether that properly constituted an ADRV -- i.e. the CAS Panel was split on the core question of whether she doped, or not. Apparently a minority of the Panel had doubts and was persuaded that a deviation of the standard probably occurred.
Decisions and opinions permitted by the WADA Code are not so airtight as to remove any and all doubts.
I can think of about a half-dozen sources of doubt that tip the balance of justice against accused athletes:
- the applicable standard of "balance of probability" based on "specific and concrete elements";
- the presumption of scientific validity of determining exogenous origin;
- the presumption that the WADA Lab met their burden;
- the presumption that the WA met their burden;
- familiarity bias between CAS arbitrators and WA/AIU/WADA Lab experts;
- "excessive aggravation" of reversing a difficult/impossible burden with rebuttable presumptions;
- not to mention the origin of the nandrolone and the presumption of intent.
I said in another thread she ran a ton in indoor season - restless from being out of competition for so long, also trying to impress a pro team and get sponsored. but it doesn't look like it worked. she might be partially cooked and also demoralized.
The burrito story was an embarrassment and it’s made a bad situation worse. She has served the ban, everyone knows she doped, but it’s done. She could both make money and her reputation by coming clean about her doping. Tell the story, sell a book about it, and clean up this burrito embarrassment. Think that would make her more sponorable. Nobody wants “burrito girl”, but people forgive mistakes. Key is asking forgiveness
I said in another thread she ran a ton in indoor season - restless from being out of competition for so long, also trying to impress a pro team and get sponsored. but it doesn't look like it worked. she might be partially cooked and also demoralized.
The burrito story was an embarrassment and it’s made a bad situation worse. She has served the ban, everyone knows she doped, but it’s done. She could both make money and her reputation by coming clean about her doping. Tell the story, sell a book about it, and clean up this burrito embarrassment. Think that would make her more sponorable. Nobody wants “burrito girl”, but people forgive mistakes. Key is asking forgiveness
It’s way too late to come clean and she would be lucky to sell even a few thousand copies of her book. The label “Admitted Liar” is even worse than “Formerly Banned Doper”.
Shelby's outdoor season isn't a disaster. Her indoor season was pretty amazing and better than expected. Outdoors has been worse than expected.
She medalled at World Indoors. She had never medalled before in her career. I think she was super motivated and probably running a little too hard.
Given where she was indoors, her outdoor season hasn't been great, but shouldn't that be kind of expected, particularly if she's coaching herself. It would be very hard , as motivated she is to run well after 4 years off, to not push it too hard in part to try to get a shoe deal.
I think she ran 8:31 indoors. That's like a 14:50 5k according to JK. She ran 14:45 in Rome off of a faster pace. Now her 4:20 indoor mile solo was equal to like a 4:01 and she only ran 4:02 at Pre but maybe she's just training for 5k.
Do we know what her training/coaching situation is?
I'd keep the label " disaster outdoor season" reserved for people who aren't running at all - no need to name names. Shelbys is so far disappointing but no one will are what she ran in June if she gets it right later in the year.
Rojo is correct, it’s been a disappointment not disaster. The indoor performances indicated big things, but now it seems she falls more in the camp of a Melissa Courtney-Bryant type trajectory, where she might be a tweener distance-wise (best event 3K) and there’s little to no improvement/even regression when we hit outdoors.
Imagine being a world class athlete .. and getting a crap burrito off some illegal's food truck. Sure. Like Jakob would eat a burrito off some food truck in East L.A..!!
She's lucky US women's running is relatively weak without St Pierre and Valby, but I still don't see her making the US team.
She just returned from a drugs suspension. That's to be expected. Gatlin was the only one who has ever performed better than he ever did when he was on drugs. Think about that...
Cranny and Karissa both seem to be not clicking this year so looking at the list of contenders in the 5000 I would be surprised if she didn’t make the team, and not shocked if she won it. She’s not what she used to be, but still has a dangerous close in a 5k, especially if it’s tactical.
She's lucky US women's running is relatively weak without St Pierre and Valby, but I still don't see her making the US team.
She just returned from a drugs suspension. That's to be expected. Gatlin was the only one who has ever performed better than he ever did when he was on drugs. Think about that...
The burrito story was an embarrassment and it’s made a bad situation worse. She has served the ban, everyone knows she doped, but it’s done. She could both make money and her reputation by coming clean about her doping. Tell the story, sell a book about it, and clean up this burrito embarrassment. Think that would make her more sponorable. Nobody wants “burrito girl”, but people forgive mistakes. Key is asking forgiveness
This presumes she doped, and then fabricated nandrolone ingestion from a burrito. Recall she served her ban, only because it was presumed she doped, and she couldn't prove she didn't, not because anyone proved she doped. Both WADA and the CAS told us this is a difficult proof to provide. No one knows if she doped, except her, presuming she did.
Many want to believe it would be likely that Houlihan orally ingested a small amount of nandrolone -- a method known to be largely ineffective due to a thing called "first pass" filtering out much of the nandrolone before it gets in the system. This belief helps confirm previous beliefs, still needing confirmation. Now some of them are looking to Houlihan to confirm all of their unfounded beliefs regardless of the truth.
It’s way too late to come clean and she would be lucky to sell even a few thousand copies of her book. The label “Admitted Liar” is even worse than “Formerly Banned Doper”.
It would especially be awkward to write a book called "Admitted Liar" if she didn't lie about doping, and the truth is that she didn't and still doesn't really know the source of the nandrolone, and that they had initially determined the greasy burrito was a likely, but difficult to prove, candidate, while they checked any remaining vitamins and supplements in parallel.
We already know that the system can railroad innocent athletes to 4-year bans if they cannot prove their innocence. We also know that truth can be stranger than fiction (e.g. see letsrun April Fools page each year).
She just returned from a drugs suspension. That's to be expected. Gatlin was the only one who has ever performed better than he ever did when he was on drugs. Think about that...
He had access to better drugs?
Yes. It is most reasonable to assume that he did. Nothing else makes sense.
The burrito story was an embarrassment and it’s made a bad situation worse. She has served the ban, everyone knows she doped, but it’s done. She could both make money and her reputation by coming clean about her doping. Tell the story, sell a book about it, and clean up this burrito embarrassment. Think that would make her more sponorable. Nobody wants “burrito girl”, but people forgive mistakes. Key is asking forgiveness
This presumes she doped, and then fabricated nandrolone ingestion from a burrito. Recall she served her ban, only because it was presumed she doped, and she couldn't prove she didn't, not because anyone proved she doped. Both WADA and the CAS told us this is a difficult proof to provide. No one knows if she doped, except her, presuming she did.
Many want to believe it would be likely that Houlihan orally ingested a small amount of nandrolone -- a method known to be largely ineffective due to a thing called "first pass" filtering out much of the nandrolone before it gets in the system. This belief helps confirm previous beliefs, still needing confirmation. Now some of them are looking to Houlihan to confirm all of their unfounded beliefs regardless of the truth.
This presumes she doped, and then fabricated nandrolone ingestion from a burrito. Recall she served her ban, only because it was presumed she doped, and she couldn't prove she didn't, not because anyone proved she doped. Both WADA and the CAS told us this is a difficult proof to provide. No one knows if she doped, except her, presuming she did.
Many want to believe it would be likely that Houlihan orally ingested a small amount of nandrolone -- a method known to be largely ineffective due to a thing called "first pass" filtering out much of the nandrolone before it gets in the system. This belief helps confirm previous beliefs, still needing confirmation. Now some of them are looking to Houlihan to confirm all of their unfounded beliefs regardless of the truth.
I am surprised the Rekbot waited so long this time before bombarding us with his off-topic hallucinations about his beloved drug cheat. Maybe his mom cut him off the internet for a few days.
It’s way too late to come clean and she would be lucky to sell even a few thousand copies of her book. The label “Admitted Liar” is even worse than “Formerly Banned Doper”.
It would especially be awkward to write a book called "Admitted Liar" if she didn't lie about doping, and the truth is that she didn't and still doesn't really know the source of the nandrolone, and that they had initially determined the greasy burrito was a likely, but difficult to prove, candidate, while they checked any remaining vitamins and supplements in parallel.
We already know that the system can railroad innocent athletes to 4-year bans if they cannot prove their innocence. We also know that truth can be stranger than fiction (e.g. see letsrun April Fools page each year).
I was responding to the poster who believes she should confess to doping and then write a book about it. If she did, and after shouting her innocence from the mountain tops for four years, she would indeed become an admitted liar. After appealing her case at CAS, making an appeal at the Swiss federal court and starting a GoFundMe to cover her legal expenses, she would be considered one of the worst liars in history. She would also alienate the people that believed in her. That she would be forgiven for making a “mistake” is funny.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.