Yes and no, I think. Coe's 3:47.33 mile is certainly a better result than 3:31.95. But it was run in late August (7 weeks later) and he very likely was not in a 1:41.73 shape by then anymore.
This is all a theory and speculation of course. But the SBs do give us approximate indicators.
Either way, Hoey's 1:42.43 800m (1253p) and 3:29.75 1500m (1248p) performances within 10(!) days definitely speak for amazing 1k WR potential (1250p).
Put Hoey, Masalela, Wanyonyi, Attaoui and Jonah Koech in a perfectly paced 1k race in let's say Paris and we will see a WR.
Coe's 3:31.95 was HORRENDOUSLY paced. The pacemaker went through the first 400m in 51.5 seconds and through 800m in 1:47.
OP here.. aha! In coachspeak that statement sounds like "we have thought about this and its not out of the question...we r gonna do it at the right moment."
Yeah I know your athlete is peaking for worlds and so if this happens it is likely to be better just after the champs... but this year with the late championship timing there will not be such an oppo.
Since it appears my post is hyping up your meet promoters for such an event then you can appoint me lol 😆
All I know is that good form should never be wasted. Nobody knows how long it lasts.
Find it interesting you make zero mention in your post of the actual record-holder. Ngeny's 3:43 mile, 3:28 1500, and ferocious kick at the 2000 Olympics are things that Hoey couldn't do...he very rarely ran the 800 so hard to say how much faster he could've gone than his 1:44 PB, but no question he was a better athlete than Hoey.
Would love to see Hoey take a shot, but I just don't see him running faster than 2:12...very similar athlete to Makhloufi, who also failed in a WR attempt running 2:13.0. Not sure there's an athlete currently running who could break that record (maybe the version of Hocker that closed a 3:27 in 2:17), but it definitely deserves a shot.
I find it ironic how many people talk about the EPO Kenyan's and Makhloufi but think Coe is 100% clean.
Blood doping started in the late 1960s but was not outlawed until 1986. While it was still legal, it was commonly used by middle and long-distance runners.
Blood doping was common in the 80's and not technically illegal, but do you really think Coe was dominating athletes who were doing without the same help?
There is a section in Brendan Foster's autobiography where he credits Coe as to showing what it took to make the step from also ran to one of the world's best. When I was reading it all I could think was that Coe got him onto the blood doping.
Find it interesting you make zero mention in your post of the actual record-holder. Ngeny's 3:43 mile, 3:28 1500, and ferocious kick at the 2000 Olympics are things that Hoey couldn't do...he very rarely ran the 800 so hard to say how much faster he could've gone than his 1:44 PB, but no question he was a better athlete than Hoey.
Would love to see Hoey take a shot, but I just don't see him running faster than 2:12...very similar athlete to Makhloufi, who also failed in a WR attempt running 2:13.0. Not sure there's an athlete currently running who could break that record (maybe the version of Hocker that closed a 3:27 in 2:17), but it definitely deserves a shot.
Arop has entered the chat.
Arop needs to work on his 1500m first. 3:35 ability is not enough and he should get it down to at least 3:32. All this while still being in 1:41 shape. Then he could have a good chance.
I find it ironic how many people talk about the EPO Kenyan's and Makhloufi but think Coe is 100% clean.
Blood doping started in the late 1960s but was not outlawed until 1986. While it was still legal, it was commonly used by middle and long-distance runners.
Blood doping was common in the 80's and not technically illegal, but do you really think Coe was dominating athletes who were doing without the same help?
There is a section in Brendan Foster's autobiography where he credits Coe as to showing what it took to make the step from also ran to one of the world's best. When I was reading it all I could think was that Coe got him onto the blood doping.
there is suspicion here,
but most large PED operations, blood doping come to the surface as in doctors, testimonials, busts, etc. and the progressions, behavior, don't match up.
they were playing around with blood work anyway.
the conclusion is that the successful british runners of the time had talent.
Find it interesting you make zero mention in your post of the actual record-holder. Ngeny's 3:43 mile, 3:28 1500, and ferocious kick at the 2000 Olympics are things that Hoey couldn't do...he very rarely ran the 800 so hard to say how much faster he could've gone than his 1:44 PB, but no question he was a better athlete than Hoey.
Would love to see Hoey take a shot, but I just don't see him running faster than 2:12...very similar athlete to Makhloufi, who also failed in a WR attempt running 2:12. Not sure there's an athlete currently running who could break that record (maybe the version of Hocker that closed a 3:27 in 2:17), but it definitely deserves a shot.
Agree that it’s ridiculous the OP didn’t even mention the actual world record holder and just talked about Coe/Cram. No chance Hocker, even in Olympic fitness, is breaking the 1,000m world record.
Agreed, and I don’t think Hocker would be even close to the best candidate either. IMO that would be Wanyonyi with Arop as an honorable mention.
Agreed, and I don’t think Hocker would be even close to the best candidate either. IMO that would be Wanyonyi with Arop as an honorable mention.
When looking at hard facts, Hoey seems to be the best candidate, then comes Tshepiso Masalela and Wanyoni. Arop would fade badly, because his 1500m is not strong enough.
Until caught, Kenyan Noah Ngeny's 2:11.96 is the official WR
lol
He was caught, that’s why the “car crash” story was cooked up. Similar to officials burying the Aman suspension. Gotta protect those “poor Africans” for the good of the sport.
Remember that Steve Cram got injured trying to break the 1000m WR a few weeks before Seoul and was never the same again.
Coe put a curse on the record. Even though Ngeny beat it, he had a car crash not long after which ended his career.
Cram was injured because of his compression syndrome + splayed feet when running. Even fellow runners like Jim Spivey told him to get some orthotics and Cram decided he wouldn’t listen to anyone, fellow runners or doctors. Then he hurt himself (for the umpteenth time) and was too far along age-wise to get back to his peak no matter how well he tried.
In the end it didn’t matter what distance he was running, Cram was simply due for yet another calf injury when he was hurt in ‘88.
Ngeny? Dirty as the day is long. Despite all claims to the contrary, he didn’t have the 800m speed to set the record without being doped, despite many chances to demonstrate the oppoaite.
Mods - any chance we can put the world ‘could’ Josh Hoey break the 1km record? Just so I stop getting messages about where the race is :)
No chance he’s ready to break that record just yet.
This. I came to this thread to find out when and where, because of the declarative title. Turned out to be an interesting speculative discussion, though, for the most part.
In an ideal world where every record is equally strong, you should see a smooth curve, going up for a while, peaking, and going back down. Aside from small exceptions for factors like the start in sprinting and curve vs. straightaway, this phenomenon is as close to a "law of nature" as you're going to get in our sport.
(In fact, there's nothing special about 60-second pace. Pick your favorite reference pace, and plot world records or your PB paces relative to this pace, and you should see a similar curve).
What we see actually approximates the ideal very, very well! At the short end, the distances are too short to really gain much on 60-second pace, while at the long end, fatigue pulls the pace back. The peak is clearly in the middle, probably somewhere between 800m and 1500m. In fact, judging by the rest of the events, 1000m seems to be just about at the peak of the curve!
This is very suggestive that the 1000m record is probably a bit weaker than most of the others, and that an equally strong record would be around 2:10.7. That estimate certainly isn't definitive, but I do think there's a fair amount of room to drop if someone like Wanyonyi gave it a really good go.
i made this point as gibson or figo handle in track and field news in 2007.