We set 4:00 as a somewhat arbitrary time to cut off those who do and those who do not. But if we instead consider the whole bell curve of runners and their best times, your list tells us why the whole bell is shifting to the right. So, there are more guys running sub 5:00, and sub 4:30, and sub 4:10, and sub 4:05, and the very right tail of the distribution pushes into the sub-4:00 zone.
Then, when we consider that tiny part of the distribution that pushes close to 4:05 and faster, and THEN add the variable of super shoes, we get more sub-4:00 runners.
But it can't be explained just by "the shoes." It is the totality of the variables, each contributing some degree or another, and moving the entire distribution to the right. Then you add the shoes fairly recently and we see what we are now seeing.
The # of sub 5 milers has significantly increased in the last couple years. Per Athletic.net in 2017 there were 25100 sub 5 boy milers. In 2024 there was 28904. In 2025 there have been 28907 though there are still several several big meets left.
This is another point. Why is the trend still ACCELERATING since the super shoes were introduced? You would expect a plateau immediately after 2021, but we don't see that. Unless the new contention is that the super shoes in 2025 are that much better than the 2021 super shoes?
1. Scientists and coaches have developed better methods of discovering elite talent.
2. Running success is built off some basic prinicples, which have largely been perfected. With the internet, it is easier for runners and coaches to share information about these principles. Ergo more high school runners than ever are maxmizing their potential.
The # of sub 5 milers has significantly increased in the last couple years. Per Athletic.net in 2017 there were 25100 sub 5 boy milers. In 2024 there was 28904. In 2025 there have been 28907 though there are still several several big meets left.
This is another point. Why is the trend still ACCELERATING since the super shoes were introduced? You would expect a plateau immediately after 2021, but we don't see that. Unless the new contention is that the super shoes in 2025 are that much better than the 2021 super shoes?
As one of those runners in the 90s I agree that today’s runners are better. Do I think they are more talented? Not necessarily.
My theory has basically been that we - the 30 and 40 somethings - were the first internet junkies when it came to training.
Now, we are coaches. I was coached by a gym teacher who had never coached a distance runner before. I had no periodization, no tempos etc. I could certainly coach myself to run 10s faster in the mile as could a lot of my friends who are coaches.
If you remove Webb, there were 0 HS sub 4 miles from 1967-2011 (44 year period). Then from 2011-2020 (9 year period, pre-super shoes) there were 7 HS sub 4 miles. So I think we need to ask what technological innovation was introduced in 2011!
The change in the 2010s was a focus by meet directors and athletes to break four minutes again. Portland had a HS sub-four attempt with Fleet, Andrews, Dunbar, Greer in 2009 and the next year the Adidas Dream Mile started in NYC which began the arms race of shoe brands putting on high school all-star meets. The Brooks PR meet, Festival of Miles, and Music City meets also started around that time
This seems like a difficult concept for some to grasp. Imagine starting running 30 years ago at age 12. You had few running paths and you had some crappy shoes. You trained down the side of a busy road and you got injured. You took 2 months off ajd started back up again. Repeat that process for thousands of kids until age 18 and you ended up with a few kids running 4:02 in their crappy spikes. A 12 year old who started 6v years ago had dedicated paths for training and he had cushioned shoes for easy days and $250 carbon plated shoes for tempos. He didn't get injured. Fast forward to all of those guys now at 18 years old wearing super spikes and a handful run sub 4. It almost seems disappointing if you examine the facts.
Its a new model athlete in high school these days. Whether there are simply better athletes running who maybe didn’t in the past or kids in general evolving and being faster or both, the bottom line is that a new normal is being created before our eyes. What was fast 10 years ago isn’t considered fast today. Just my humble opinion. Change my mind, I am open to it.
In 2019 there were zero US HS sub 4s. In 2022 there were 5. Evolving pretty quickly. Only took a couple years. Imagine that.
1. Scientists and coaches have developed better methods of discovering elite talent.
2. Running success is built off some basic prinicples, which have largely been perfected. With the internet, it is easier for runners and coaches to share information about these principles. Ergo more high school runners than ever are maxmizing their potential.
Literally every exercise phys they interviewed on LRC said the first and foremost aspect was supershoes/superspikes. Did you even read that article? But other than that, sure.
The # of sub 5 milers has significantly increased in the last couple years. Per Athletic.net in 2017 there were 25100 sub 5 boy milers. In 2024 there was 28904. In 2025 there have been 28907 though there are still several several big meets left.
This is another point. Why is the trend still ACCELERATING since the super shoes were introduced? You would expect a plateau immediately after 2021, but we don't see that. Unless the new contention is that the super shoes in 2025 are that much better than the 2021 super shoes?
It has, but few bother to do any research. Below is a list of number of athletes per year from 2017 on that broke 4:
2017 - 1
2018 - 0
2019 - 0
2020 - (covid, one runner broke 4)
2021 - 1
2022 - 5
2023 - 5
2024 - 3
2025 - 6
Even if the numbers did jump (which they didn’t) it would only be because athletes and coaches know that they can now run faster with the shoes and are setting races up to be faster because of the shoes.
More runners have broken 4 since the super spikes than in the previous 20 years.
Its a new model athlete in high school these days. Whether there are simply better athletes running who maybe didn’t in the past or kids in general evolving and being faster or both, the bottom line is that a new normal is being created before our eyes. What was fast 10 years ago isn’t considered fast today. Just my humble opinion. Change my mind, I am open to it.
Yea, im pretty sure TJ doesnt even run for a HS? Which i understand, most coaches are not very good.
1. Scientists and coaches have developed better methods of discovering elite talent.
2. Running success is built off some basic prinicples, which have largely been perfected. With the internet, it is easier for runners and coaches to share information about these principles. Ergo more high school runners than ever are maxmizing their potential.
Literally every exercise phys they interviewed on LRC said the first and foremost aspect was supershoes/superspikes. Did you even read that article? But other than that, sure.
"Bruh", 3 things can be true at once. Anyone can research effective training techniques now and even see the training logs of pros. That plus shoes.
Literally every exercise phys they interviewed on LRC said the first and foremost aspect was supershoes/superspikes. Did you even read that article? But other than that, sure.
"Bruh", 3 things can be true at once. Anyone can research effective training techniques now and even see the training logs of pros. That plus shoes.
Bruh, instagram, FB, stava, and the internet have been out forever. What are they posting now that they weren’t posting in 2018 and 2019 when ZERO HS sub 4s were ran?
1) I seriously doubt guys like Ryun and Fernandez would have been any better had they started in 7th grade.
Ryun ran a 58 second 440 in 8th grade. A couple of guys in his class ran 53 seconds so he mistakenly thought he was slow. I don't know when he started running but it was at least by 8th grade.