, even though 1:43 to 1:41 is a way crazier drop than 1:47 low to 1:43 high.
I appreciate the passion and alternative thinking, but......
Yes 1:43 to 1:41 was surprising for Hoppel but it's far from crazier from 1:47 to 1:43 for Hoey.
1) Hoppel was 4th in the world in 2019. He was 4th in the world in 2024. One could argue nothing really changed.
2) Hoppel moved to altitude for the 1st time when he went from 1:43 to 1:41 and started training with Kessler.
I can't believe you are really arguing that huge improvement from prodigies at age 18-19 (Brazier) is more suspicious than a huge improvement for a former prodigy at age 24 (Hoey). Hoey looked like a lot of former mid-d prodigies who peaked as a teen (Obea Moore?) and never was going to impove and now he may be #1 in the world.
But can we as a board please agree to focus on the more important pressing doping related questions? How in the world did someone with my genes (Wejo) go from 29:49 to 28:27 at age 26 , almost 27 (and then to 28:06 at age 29)? We are approaching the 25 year anniversary of that improvement and the statute of limitations to question the validity of that expires at 25 I believe. ;)
What happened to talent never goes away? Hoey ran basically the same time as Brazier in HS.
I'm not saying Brazier is more suspicious than Hoey, I'm saying they both dropped from 1:47 to 1:43 in a year after changing coaches, and we shouldn't see Hoey as likely doping, while we see Brazier as a super talent who could end years of stagnation if he just changed coaches.
To your Hoppel points:
1) Well nothing changed except he suddenly ran way faster. In 2018, Hoey ran faster than any American HSer ever at 800i. In 2024, he ran faster than any American ever at the 800i. One could argue really nothing changed, according to your logic.
2) Yeah, Hoppel changed his training significantly, and saw massive gains. So did Hoey (who also started using bicarb iirc). But historically, 1:41 is rarified air. 1:43 high is way more common, and we've seen the 1:47-1:43 drop in a year before.
this is the progression that alerts WADA = Hoey. legit world beaters results ramp up fast at age 19, and by 22, they are very near all time peak. mitigating factors are guys that don't train very hard at 18 - 20, and have a nice base, then ramp up a little later. this is a normal progression as well.
contrast with the Brazier progression show the world beater natural progression.
Snell, Walker, Elliot, Coe, Ovett, they all were in the weeds at age 17, training properly by 18, and by 20, 22, it is world records.
no name guys, formerly like Katir, Hoey are not tested, you can hit EPO plus plus PEDs peptides and "legal" sauce.
if for some odd reason testers come round, you can use whereabouts and ignorance as a rookie to avoid, do a protocol to clean out the system.
once you are on the grid with big results, and tested,
you can hit the EPO once timely early in the year and micro dose, with a lab you can see what threshold you need to avoid positives, or results that are not definitive with the method detection limit.
guys with the sophisticated guidance can avoid which is the developed countries and 3rd world guys with mentor like a Conte,
the do it yourself African with random voodoo doc, behind the times, it is pop pop pop.
its a war of technology
if a legit 141 800 guy does the full meal deal EPO, peptides, acid buffer, and the rest,
you have 138 as the WR, at least.
the same as Barry Bonds, an all time great, with the refined Balco protocol, (FloJo, Ben, Tiny Tim), he was on another planet, a plain never before imagined.