Is it over now for Jakob in the 1500m?

Jakob vs Yared 7-2 (Eugene 2023 and 2024, Oslo 2023, Rabat 2023, Budapest 2023, Monaco 2024, Brussels 2024 ------ Paris 2024, Zurich 2024)
Jakobs biggest margin of victory against Yared: Monaco 2024 with +2.4 seconds
Yareds biggest margin of victory again Jakob: Paris 2024 with +0.44 Seconds

Jakob vs Josh 10-3 ( World U20 Championships 2016, Doha 2019, Tokyo 2021, Oregon 2022, Lausanne 2022, Zurich 2022, Oslo 2023, Lausanne 2023, Zurich 2024, Budapest 2023, Eugene 2024, Paris 2024)
Jakobs biggest margin of victory against Kerr: Lausanne 2022 with +3.23 seconds
Kerrs biggest margin of victory against Jakob: Paris 2024 with +0.45 seconds

Jakob vs Cole 8-1 (Tokyo 2021, Eugene 2022, Eugene 2023, Budapest 2023, Eugene 2024, Lausanne 2024, Zurich 2024, Brussels 2024 - Paris 2024)
Jakobs biggest margin of victory against Cole: Eugene 2023 with +3.35 seconds
Coles biggest margin of victory against Jakob: Paris 2024 with +0.59 seconds

He is far from done. Your argument on his “kick” is wrong. We have seen him close as fast as Hocker and Kerr. Let’s see what new level he has found this year in Lievin. Maybe he has improved similarly. Also, I love how nobody in this thread finds Hocker’s progression extremely suspicious. 3:30 to 3:27 and 7:30 to 7:22 in a year. Pftt, that is not believable.

We’re talking outdoor global championship 1500 racing here. Everyone knows Jakob is a 1500 time trial merchant.

Winning paced time trials require strategy and racing as well, even moreso than championships. Jakob also still has the best record at global championships anyway. This thread is useless.

“even moreso than championships.”

You’ve just invalidated any opinions you have going forward.

Sometimes, people with no counter argument resort to calling the other sides opinion as invalidated, it happens.

I don’t think his injury is getting enough attention here. He ran one of the fastest miles ever in his season opener after not being able to race for 8 months, and obviously went on to run 3:26 and 7:17. His failure to medal in Paris gets all the attention, but 3:28.2 from the gun (after going out a second faster than he did in Monaco) is an insane performance. What might he have done with a healthy build up? Of course, the letsrun hive mind has no long term memory, so Jakob is finished until Lievin.

This seems to happen every year with him. I remember the first time Nuguse ran 3:47i with a nice close. Jakob was coming off injury and looked relatively sluggish running 3:32 in Lievin, and the board said it was over for him. That was the narrative until he rinsed Nuguse in a slower race in Rabat, and then went on to have the most dominant season of his career.

Similar story last year. Hocker ran the race of his life in Paris and there was immediately talk of the world record, Jakob having no answer to him, etc. Then the rest of the season happened.

It’s true there are legitimate concerns when it comes to championships, not because Jakob lacks the tools to win, but because he insists on doing it in the hardest possible way. His chances of front running to a gold medal get worse every year because the depth is so much greater than it was when Tim went from gun to tape in Doha. I’d love to see Jakob pull it off, because I don’t see him changing his tactics until he wins in this way, it’s just harder and harder to believe it’s possible. He’s come close several times, but the margins are razor thin and he has to have the perfect race to win after putting himself at such a massive disadvantage.

I think all the other competitors will be forced to peak earlier with gst as well and that may play to jakobs advantage, especially for people like kerr and hocker

Jakob’s stubbornness and his hubris is why I am his big fan. Hes going to front run a global title in the 1500 or die trying. Obviously he knows the risks, and he never runs his off event the 5000 this way, but he wants to win the 1500 in as Kipchoge says “a beautiful race.” This drives everybody crazy. I’m not such a stats person as to be able to break down to the millisecond the relative closes of all the top guys, but I’m skeptical that Jakob has a significant disadvantage in this regard. I think it’s all bs. We just watched Fisher close down Hocker. Why? Is Fisher faster at the close? No, because Hocker was spent. Jakob front runs the 1500 NOT because he must to win, but because he wants to dominate. It may be that his stubbornness will be his fatal flaw, or it might be that he runs the “beautiful race” and we are all in awe.

What's Jakob's 3k PR?

Isn't it more than 5 secs fastet than Cole's?

You made an egregious take.

No one in there right mind would agree that running a race with 1) an agreed upon pace 2) a rabbit, 3) wave lights and 4) without all the top guys requires more strategy than a championship final where every single aspect of the race is uncertain.

If you truly believe that, your thought process should be questioned. Simple.

Did Ingebrigtsen say wanted to run the “beautiful race”? He had been outkicked in the last two WCs and it’s very likely he thought running his fastest time possible was the only way he could win. If he was confident he could win by surging later in the race, that’s what he would have done.

Pacing yourself, deciding whether to go behind the rabbit, trusting your fitness, making sure not to trip, knowing when to slow down or to keep it going, knowing when to finally kick, constantly observing who has been dropped and who hasn’t, these are all things that go down in a paced race for Jakob. The others have it way easier than Jakob in either race because they know that it will be stringed in single file. Calling Jakob a “time-trial merchant” is hilarious and shows that you know nothing about this sport. Goodbye moron.

There’s a little bit of narrative changing here.

Jakob hasn’t front run every year. He’s actually done the long drive from home strategy everyone suggests.

In 2022, he took the lead with 800 to go. He lost.

In 2023, he took the lead with 1000 to go. He lost.

After those 2 attempts he decided to lead longer in 2024.

So sounds like you are suggesting he should be waiting until 600 to go or less?

Yes, on many occasions he has explicitly or implicitly referenced that this is how he thinks a dominant champion should run and win the race. His whole “I am the pacemaker” ethos speaks to this. He doesn’t really care about the 5000 and so he just goes out and wins these the “easy” way. I think for Jakob sitting and kicking on Kerr or Hocker is not an impossibility, rather it’s a capitulation. Running this way in that race goes against his world view. He cares about this as much as winning.

Do you read what you type?:

“You don’t know what the definition of closing a gap means. It means the gap is smaller than it was before, not that the gap has been fully bridged.”

You could have just said they are making up ground on Ingebrigtsen, but instead, you chose to insult me.

Hocker is obviously the slowest kicker, he just closed in 27.5 last 200m and Fischer out kicked him. so goes the inane logic put on every ballsy pacer that gets beat by the hoover man, who is crowned kicker of the century.

In the 1500 the straight. it is a war of attrition. what do you have left?

I see Jacob with the 325 within his grasp, and that would come with great pacing.

Hocker and Goose are now or at 326 as well, and Kerr, with his Jonny on the spot approach, put all your eggs in one basket, could steal the show, if the gods deal his A game at the right time.

Kessler has become the new annoying guy beyond Kerr, he was such a loveable fellow to cheer for before.

Scarry, Hocker can hang with Jacob in a 3000 at WR pace nearly all the way. I really don't know Hocker's true speed, he has programmed himself for an adrenalin dump at the end, and gets those extra one or two meters for the win. I suppose the 143 800m is kind of a given, but a 145 opener in an average race should not cause panic.

People go off the rails when a guy is in the perfect race and gets an artificial time 2 seconds better than in a mortal normal race.

And the opposite, say a lousy race, pacing, etc. where a 146 is a great time. And then there is the one off - opener - in the midst of a training block off distance result, where people conclude-for years, that that is all you got... and the athlete themselves need to not be disappointed.

Kessler ran the nice opener 3000m in 735 in a mortal race, and all boo hoo, and then ran the hoover 346, and its all super rosy.

maybe the cognitive dissonance of Brojos, thinkerleaders and whatnot will clear up on = this.
it not rocket science.

the reality is that Jacob can close a last 200m in 24 mid perhaps, and the big 4 stand to close in 24 low, perhaps, and nobody is closing in 23 in the 33x race.

aerobically the big 4 are monsters and can run 2 miles in sub 4 pace.

epically interesting, hope the group continue to be healthy and bring it.

i can't remember peak goats ever meeting at the top of their game, maybe Coe and Ovett in 1980? but Coe wasn't aerobically peak, and Ovett wasn't on his game quite.

LMAO hocker running 7:23, cheater shoes absolutely ruined the legacy and history of running and makes me less interested in the sport. Yeah hocker is as good as El G, JUST KIDDING

How fast will Jakob need to run to convince people he can front run to a global title in the 1500? Does he have to run 3:24? Hocker lost yesterday’s race, so the “speed” and “gearshift” didn’t matter. If the pace is fast enough, the the lactic is too high and all of that stuff is moot. I think Jakob can do it if he has an injury free year.

If the 2020 Olympics actually happened in 2020 instead of the faux 2021 Olympics, then TimC would've been Olympic Gold medalist and Ingy probably wouldn't have a 1500 Gold