Marco Arop believes he can break 3:30 in the 1500m at some point. Do you agree?

FangYouTang wrote:

Arop only started doing track during his senior year of high school and he ran 1:47 the summer after. His talent is unquestionable. If you have paid attention to his career early on, you would notice that it took a long time for him to get his 400 times under 47. He is not a Rudisha type of runner. I think he compares more to Joaquim Cruz and might have similar ability over 1500m. Cruz was good, but never great over that distance, but with modern shoes and tracks and without the leg length disparity, Arop has avoided the injuries that may have prevented Cruz from running a top level 1500 and possibly putting the 800 record out of sight for a long time.

When considering his 800 progression, if you watch a lot of his races, you will see that it has taken him a long time to find out his best pacing strategy. He was known as a front runner for a long time, but his best races have always involved him coming from behind. Whenever he really goes after it on his first lap, he tends to tie up at the end, as he did in most of his fastest races before this year. The problem for him is that if he is to hold back on the first lap, he must race from the back, as he has great difficulty running in the pack. Last year, when he ran 1:42.85, he was always chasing the fast times on the first lap. A gentle acceleration in the first 200 seems to suit him better.

Coevett wrote:

It's definitely not new, it's just that the mods have been deleting my (and other poster's) comments suggesting any scepticism regarding Arop. He is definitely one of the 'protected' runners here. Georgia Bell? Pile on with the doping accusations - the Brits are all dirty. Marco Arop? Clean as Canadian snow.

Arop's progression is even more astonishing when you examine it closely.

At the end of the 2019 season at age 20, his pb was 1:44.14.

At the end of the 2023 season at age 24, his pb was 1:42.85

That itself is quite noteworthy given this season he reduced it to 1:41.20, and many people expected him to break the WR or even go sub 1:40, and still expect him to do so next year, when he will turn 27.

But that 1:42.85 was run in the last race of the season just 3 days before his 24th birthday.

If he hadn't ran that, his pb would have been 1:43.24 going into 2024 and the age of 24, an improvement of less than one second in four years, or from age 20 to 24, and an improvement of 0.02 seconds in two years, or from age 22 to 24, and then an improvement of two seconds in one season (2024 at 25).

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

FangYouTang wrote:

Arop only started doing track during his senior year of high school and he ran 1:47 the summer after. His talent is unquestionable. If you have paid attention to his career early on, you would notice that it took a long time for him to get his 400 times under 47. He is not a Rudisha type of runner. I think he compares more to Joaquim Cruz and might have similar ability over 1500m. Cruz was good, but never great over that distance, but with modern shoes and tracks and without the leg length disparity, Arop has avoided the injuries that may have prevented Cruz from running a top level 1500 and possibly putting the 800 record out of sight for a long time.

When considering his 800 progression, if you watch a lot of his races, you will see that it has taken him a long time to find out his best pacing strategy. He was known as a front runner for a long time, but his best races have always involved him coming from behind. Whenever he really goes after it on his first lap, he tends to tie up at the end, as he did in most of his fastest races before this year. The problem for him is that if he is to hold back on the first lap, he must race from the back, as he has great difficulty running in the pack. Last year, when he ran 1:42.85, he was always chasing the fast times on the first lap. A gentle acceleration in the first 200 seems to suit him better.

Cruz is so right on, great call. He also looked “too big” for the 1500 but he ran quite well in it and supershoes/health undoubtedly promised more.

McRunnin wrote:

In his interview on the Citius podcast, Josh Kerr shared some thoughts about Arop running the 1500 in GST. After Kerr acknowledged that the 1500 guys don’t look so good on paper going against Arop in the 800, he said this about Arop in the 1500:

“But Marco Arop saying that he wants to run under 3:30 is the cutest thing that I've ever seen.
It's so cute. He's so nice about it. But he's gonna have to use his head.
He's gonna have to use his brain. It's not, let's switch the brain off and run two laps as fast as possible. There's so much more to a 15 that if you can run 3:30, that's fine.
Lots of people in the world can run 3:30. But it's can you know what's going on? Can you get the splits right?
Can you make your move at the right time? Do you go out faster? Do you go out slower?
I think that's the part where he's probably not gonna get right early, but he'll learn over the Grand Slam meets.”

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

In his interview on the Citius podcast, Josh Kerr shared some thoughts about Arop running the 1500 in GST. After Kerr acknowledged that the 1500 guys don’t look so good on paper going against Arop in the 800, he said this about Arop in the 1500:

“But Marco Arop saying that he wants to run under 3:30 is the cutest thing that I've ever seen.
It's so cute. He's so nice about it. But he's gonna have to use his head.
He's gonna have to use his brain. It's not, let's switch the brain off and run two laps as fast as possible. There's so much more to a 15 that if you can run 3:30, that's fine.
Lots of people in the world can run 3:30. But it's can you know what's going on? Can you get the splits right?
Can you make your move at the right time? Do you go out faster? Do you go out slower?
I think that's the part where he's probably not gonna get right early, but he'll learn over the Grand Slam meets.”

Man is Kerr trying to sound like a d-bag, Arop has basically done as much as him and is younger. Putting that aside, I think he is highly overrating the difficulty of translating fitness into a fast 1500 time. Think of Tim Cheruiyot who switched over to the 1500 from the 800 and was so green he ran 51 to open his DMR leg at World Indoors. Within a year he was making a Worlds final. Or Noah Kibet who ran 3:35 in his first competitive crack at it. Wanyonyi who beat Kessler in that road mile. Abel Kipsang or Marcin Lewandowski who made the switch pretty easily. Elliott Giles as well., though he admittedly hasn’t mastered things but I’d argue he’s pretty close to his maximal limit and Arop is fitter (we’ll see if as suited for the distance). I think Kerr is probably underestimating the 800m event because he’s only run it in intramural Brooks Beasts races and British champs (which have gone poorly). Can you really turn your brain off? It doesn’t feel like it if you faceplant in your last 800m race.