zcxvcvxzc wrote:
Yes, there is individual variation in distance running. But look at any team xc results and you will see group variation much more than individual variation. A few teams will have a stalwart way beyond anyone (and there usually is a backstory there, encouragement and training with a parent who was a runner, a club coach, extra training, a sports background), but the vast majority will group near each other. The results are in no way close to random.
Look at Joe Piane Invitational results and although you see some prime-time Kenyan recruits crushing everyone else on some of these teams (TT, Cincy, Washington St., for example), what you don't see is an ND runner below the top forty or an NAU runner below the top thirty, while you see three TT, Adams State, and Washington St. guys worse than 100 and five App State, plus four Miami and four Youngstown State runners worse than 100. There's nothing random about these general groupings.
ND 8/10/11/12/14/36/39
Northern Arizona 4/13/15/16/20/21/27
CBU 5/6/28/32/41/69/99
Wyoming 9/26/33/35/47/95/96
Michigan State 19/24/34/38/52/74/76
Boise State 23/30/31/54/56/65/117
Texas Tech 1/29/43/49/102/111/131
Grand Valley St. 17/40/50/72/73/86/97
Adams State 7/42/55/61/103/108/112
Purdue 22/37/53/70/88/100/106
Washington St. 2/25/63/92/114/119/122
Cincinnati 3/57/71/80/93/104/123
Belmont 44/58/60/75/87/90/98...
Miami (Ohio) 46/59/91/116/118/127/132
Youngstown St. 64/79/82/105/109/121/125
App State 67/77/115/120/128/130/133
Yep that shows how much talent matters. No matter how good your training is, you aren’t beating the talent of ND/NAU where they bring in 8:50 runners to your 9:20 ones…..