2.44 would lead to something special - a total implosion from the field in the final lap including Jakob.
Jakob went out in 54.8 in Paris which was a full second faster than anything he's done before and while I wouldn't say he imploded, it clearly was beyond his threshold and compromised him later in the race because he had to slow down in the second lap (56.6) just to regroup. At this level, running 55.5 for the third lap is damn tough so working backwards you're looking at mid 1.49's through 800 to get that? There is only one guy in history that could do this and he retired 20 years ago.
More likely is that they try and hit 1200 in 2.46.0 and see how close he can run to 40.0 for the last lap. But we should also remember that Jakob is running Lausanne and going for the 3000m WR in Silesia. He's already run two doubles at championships this season (Rome and Paris) - that's not easy. Let's just remember the guy is human and he's going to be the guy the field relies on to drive the race (as it is basically every time).
He said in a recent interview that his goal with the 1500m is to keeping chipping away a few 10ths of a second and he will eventually get the WR. Not saying the WR won’t be possible in this race but it might be slightly out of his reach just now. I hope I’m proved wrong!
That's indeed Jakob's plan...if he was the only one chasing the record.
55-55.5-55.5 for 2:46 and then a 40 is the WR. Doesn't seem unreasonable that the 3 medalist can stick close to that pace. I just don't think they'll have it in 3 weeks. Jakob will obviously because he's a time trial merchant. I think the WR will come down to Jakob closing better than he did in Monaco.
If 3:26.00 is the world record wouldn't that mean they'd have to close in 39? That's 3:25. Gotta get better at math.
I don't believe this has been broached much. Jakob moved out to cover Kerr, Hocker gets a run on the inside. Without that decision I believe Hocker may not have got the gold (a moot point now and he ran a great race for the deserved win). Also Nuguse was going fast on the outside as well and without having to go wider to pass Kerr etc etc... But yes, Jakob will not do that again. With a pacer he'll go to front and run. Best way for him to win.
Yeah you're not wrong I was thinking the other day about how fragile this whole situation was for Hocker and how serendipitous the way he runs the final 120m was.
As we know Hocker tried to go through twice - once as they were exiting the curve where Jakob (legally) held his line as they straightened and it clearly stopped Hocker going through, and the other was his gold medal winning dart.
At this point he could easily have made a career and life-changing mistake by trying the old "reverse out of the parking spot" move and trying to go around Jakob. It's the move we see all the time, a move that if you ever raced before you've probably done and it's just an absolute killer because not only of the relative speed and time you give up to someone in front of you that might even be running slower than you, but also because to regain that momentum is a massive energy cost at that point in the race when you are right on the red line anyway. And of course if he did that he would have just then encountered the same issue with Kerr anyway.
It was a mistake so easy to make - it's the Olympic final, it's your shot at immortality, you know you can win this race and I still shake my head with a smile that he didn't make it. Because like you said, Jakob could have held his line the whole way up the straight and then I don't know what Hocker does - even as the fittest guy in the race at that point. Even if Jakob starts drifting 30m later than he did - closer to 25,30m from the finish, Hocker might not get there but as we know, that wasn't the case. He moves aside just enough at the perfect time and Hockers incredible and inexplicable patience pays off. Jakob is looking for Kerr, Kerr is looking at Jakob and neither of them expect the bowling ball (I called him this on the "sleeper" thread and someone called me an idiot for doing so - except that's exactly the right metaphor for him) of Cole Hocker to muscle through for the win.
It shows how these moments in life are so nuanced and so fragile - it's all about the crossroad decisions and do you pick the right direction or not. Hocker could easily and understandably picked one way and his life, Josh Kerrs life and maybe Yared Nuguses lives are all different. But he picked right - incredible stuff.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I don't believe this has been broached much. Jakob moved out to cover Kerr, Hocker gets a run on the inside. Without that decision I believe Hocker may not have got the gold (a moot point now and he ran a great race for the deserved win). Also Nuguse was going fast on the outside as well and without having to go wider to pass Kerr etc etc... But yes, Jakob will not do that again. With a pacer he'll go to front and run. Best way for him to win.
Yeah you're not wrong I was thinking the other day about how fragile this whole situation was for Hocker and how serendipitous the way he runs the final 120m was.
As we know Hocker tried to go through twice - once as they were exiting the curve where Jakob (legally) held his line as they straightened and it clearly stopped Hocker going through, and the other was his gold medal winning dart.
At this point he could easily have made a career and life-changing mistake by trying the old "reverse out of the parking spot" move and trying to go around Jakob. It's the move we see all the time, a move that if you ever raced before you've probably done and it's just an absolute killer because not only of the relative speed and time you give up to someone in front of you that might even be running slower than you, but also because to regain that momentum is a massive energy cost at that point in the race when you are right on the red line anyway. And of course if he did that he would have just then encountered the same issue with Kerr anyway.
It was a mistake so easy to make - it's the Olympic final, it's your shot at immortality, you know you can win this race and I still shake my head with a smile that he didn't make it. Because like you said, Jakob could have held his line the whole way up the straight and then I don't know what Hocker does - even as the fittest guy in the race at that point. Even if Jakob starts drifting 30m later than he did - closer to 25,30m from the finish, Hocker might not get there but as we know, that wasn't the case. He moves aside just enough at the perfect time and Hockers incredible and inexplicable patience pays off. Jakob is looking for Kerr, Kerr is looking at Jakob and neither of them expect the bowling ball (I called him this on the "sleeper" thread and someone called me an idiot for doing so - except that's exactly the right metaphor for him) of Cole Hocker to muscle through for the win.
It shows how these moments in life are so nuanced and so fragile - it's all about the crossroad decisions and do you pick the right direction or not. Hocker could easily and understandably picked one way and his life, Josh Kerrs life and maybe Yared Nuguses lives are all different. But he picked right - incredible stuff.
I think you are most likely right, maybe someone else makes it to a 3:27 high, but I think there is likely some rightful cashing in on Olympic medals for appearance fees, rather than racing again for glory. This race likely won't mean as much to the Americans, or Kerr. The whole year was focused on the Olympics. The Diamond league meets do not mean as much to them. How often have they participated before this? That kind of shows where they stand. Hope I am wrong and it is competitive!
Hocker hasn’t participated as much in the DL pre-championships due to injury/travel etc. That being said he takes his big races quite seriously as we saw in Millrose (8:05i), LAGP (12:58), Pre (3:48 with a near-fall and running pretty high up before fading). He will try to validate the Gold. Not saying he will run super-fast but he is aiming to get into the DL final and needs to compete well.
Nuguse has always run well/hard at DL races. With a sizable break, I’d be surprised if he’s not in great form for those last 2 DLs even if he has a slight Olympic hangover.
Yes, Kerr is typically a bigger one-peak, sparse racing type guy but this’ll be his 3rd 1500/mile final of 2024. He’ll happily end his season after it if he wins, so expect him to try.
You also have to remember for the Americans they are uniquely incentivized. Kerr has a bye secured for the Brits based on Budapest, and he’d be a shoo-in due to their process anyway. Olympic gold doesn’t apply, so if they can beat Jakob at the DL final they get USA 4 spots. With Nathan Green, Waskom, Ciattei, Sahlman et al. you don’t want to take anything for granted.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I think you are most likely right, maybe someone else makes it to a 3:27 high, but I think there is likely some rightful cashing in on Olympic medals for appearance fees, rather than racing again for glory. This race likely won't mean as much to the Americans, or Kerr. The whole year was focused on the Olympics. The Diamond league meets do not mean as much to them. How often have they participated before this? That kind of shows where they stand. Hope I am wrong and it is competitive!
...You also have to remember for the Americans they are uniquely incentivized. Kerr has a bye secured for the Brits based on Budapest, and he’d be a shoo-in due to their process anyway. Olympic gold doesn’t apply, so if they can beat Jakob at the DL final they get USA 4 spots. With Nathan Green, Waskom, Ciattei, Sahlman et al. you don’t want to take anything for granted.
this is something that i hadn't considered. so if an american wins the mile/1500m DL final they get another WC spot? Would they have an automatic spot on the WC team if they win or would the US just get 4 spots?
I think you are most likely right, maybe someone else makes it to a 3:27 high, but I think there is likely some rightful cashing in on Olympic medals for appearance fees, rather than racing again for glory. This race likely won't mean as much to the Americans, or Kerr. The whole year was focused on the Olympics. The Diamond league meets do not mean as much to them. How often have they participated before this? That kind of shows where they stand. Hope I am wrong and it is competitive!
I agree about people cashing in as they should, however I cannot imagine any of these young men would not care deeply about winning.
this is something that i hadn't considered. so if an american wins the mile/1500m DL final they get another WC spot? Would they have an automatic spot on the WC team if they win or would the US just get 4 spots?
They would have an auto spot for themselves. It probably would make that decision to do Grand Slam Track really easy (might already be easy).
You think Hocker could have run a 3:28 solo at the Olympics? I doubt that…
So do I.
Definitely not, but he’d go faster than people think. He ran 3:34 solo at US Trials in the heats not close to all out. Nuguse of course did a 3:30 from the front in the final and ran trying to win, not time trial. Both guys could frontrun a fast time and while their maximal fitness is below Jakob’s he will probably have 500m from the front to shake them. If Hocker and Nuguse do a good job coming back from the Olympics, they should not be getting dropped significantly, but rather maybe outlasted by Jakob.
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