To me, the bottom line has always been that Jakob has 4 guys
(1) Kerr, (2)🪿
(3) Hocker
(4)🥔
who can hang with his front-running pace. If he tries to front-run the race from early on, the probability that at least 1 of these other guys feels good enough to surge past him the last 200m is super high, just mathematically.
Both Kerr and ingebrigsten looked nervous. Truth be told deep down I think they’re both worried the other will pip them at the post. It’s obviously between them two and it’s obviously going to be very close. I’d give maybe a 10% chance of someone else winning. If the race is slow or they both take it out very hard and try to stop the other overtaking then someone else could take it. After Jakobs 3:26.7 he ran last month we know he’s in top form however Danny Mackey said that Josh recently ran one of his key workouts the fastest he’s ever run it. This tells us Josh is also in top shape. Josh is obviously in under 3:28 time trial shape I’m not sure if he’s under 3:27 however this is the Olympics not a time trial and Josh has a slightly better kick than Jakob. I listened to Steve cram in the commentary and he hinted that he thinks the same style of race will happen in the final. I think he’s probably right. I think Kerr might pull a switcheroo and also go to the back with ingebrigsten in the final. I think the main determiner of the winner is whoever conserves energy the best so doesn’t go out hard at the very start, gets a bit of draft, crucially whoever avoids running extra distance by minimising being on the outside at the curves and it’s also very important t to not get too cramped up in a group because you have to adjust your stride pattern and jostle around which is inefficient. Because the final is so deep though they might struggle to move up to the front after the first lap or so. I could see Jakob trying to front run but going slower than usual on the first half then ripping the last half with an increase in pace for every 200m split . It’ll be close but I’ll pick Kerr to win at 50% chance Jakob at 40%. One slightly worrying thing for Jakob was his diamond league performance against cheriyout, the one before Monaco so a couple of months ago. It was a 3:30 race or something so a bit slower and cheriyout really nearly out kicked jakob at the end. We know he is fitter now but I don’t think Jakob can lead from the start and I don’t think he can let the pace be slow.
NGL if I were Jakob, I might actually just let someone take the lead. I mean, for him, it's either gold or nothing as he already had the gold before. I'm pretty sure Kerr would be forced to take the lead, because he sure as well doesn't want the pace to be slow and he's the one who really needs that gold.
If JI takes the lead, while he can guarantee a silver minimum, it's extremely unlikely he could run away from Kerr, but if he doesn't do that, he may be able to reverse the whole situation, and the pressure would be back on Kerr, and Kerr would be the de facto pacer.
If neither Jakob nor Kerr make it a super fast race, Hocker will win.
To me, the bottom line has always been that Jakob has 4 guys
(1) Kerr, (2)🪿
(3) Hocker
(4)🥔
who can hang with his front-running pace. If he tries to front-run the race from early on, the probability that at least 1 of these other guys feels good enough to surge past him the last 200m is super high, just mathematically.
Dude what planet are you on? JI is not remotelty worried about US guys running 3:30. His competition is Kerr and no one else.
Jakob looked like he wasn’t trying hard in the semis. Kerr also looked good. I think it is going to be a barn burner final 400 in the finals. The Americans will likely snag a bronze the way they looked. My money is on Kessler with that 800 speed in him.
You are right. If both Kerr and Jakob ran 3:26:6 average pace for 1100m and look both as comfortable as each other then Jakob is in trouble because Kerr looking so good wouldn’t sweat going one more lap at the same pace and equal Jakobs pb. But then with Kerr’s superior sprint technique and ease of movement Jakob still loses in every sit and kick race against Kerr in the end.
there seems to be no choice of lesser of 2 evils? Jakob has to pick his poison now and die by one of them.
question is of he dies again this time will he kneel and beg for forgiveness from Kerr?
Give me one sub 3:29 race where you have seen Kerr outkick Jakob (or anyone at all).
I don't think we can read too much out of the semis, other than Jakob and Josh being the main contenders for the gold.
This is impossible because Kerr has never run sub 3:29. His PR has not droppes since 2021.
We're all expecting Kerr to kick from 150-200m out and Jakob will be anticipating that but Hocker is going to go from 250m out and jump them just before that moment. Catch them both for hesitating for a second. Don't sleep on Hocker's unreal kick.
Jakob looked like he wasn’t trying hard in the semis. Kerr also looked good. I think it is going to be a barn burner final 400 in the finals. The Americans will likely snag a bronze the way they looked. My money is on Kessler with that 800 speed in him.
No way Kessler can access that speed in a 1500 going sub-3:30. He's never shown any ability to do so throughout this season.
Actually come to think of it I feel bad for all the people that demean Khamis now after seeing that his prediction about Kerr winning is becoming more and more reality with each passing second.
And now Nick is saying the same thing about Kerr’s superior biomechanical sprint technique (is that what was referred to by Nick) which Khamis previously brought up as a crucial indicator of ‘killer touch’ and victory probability.
First it was the heats and now it was the semi finals Kerr just looked far easier moving around the track than hocker and Jakob. Khamis was yet again right that 2 steps of Jakob or hocker is 1 step of Kerr which impacts great change of pace as Kerr can literally go past anybody in only 1 stride and be harder to respond to but Jakob can’t go as fast which allows Kerr lots of time to respond.
I followed Khamis points of information and am stumped to see how right he was about everything and even beginning to think he actually hits all the right notes all the time. He doesn’t get it wrong at all. Such eerie fitness!
Kerr has exceptionally high and highest knee lift and a straight torso which allows him to stretch out his legs while Jakob leans way too much and can’t stretch in Award Belts out as much with those baby steps.
Josh Kerr's triumph in the 1500m at the Olympics marks a historic moment in middle-distance running. With a combination of tactical brilliance and raw speed, Kerr executed a perfect race strategy, staying within striking distance of the leaders before unleashing a powerful kick in the final lap. His dedication to rigorous training and mental fortitude shone through as he crossed the finish line, securing the gold medal.
Both Kerr and ingebrigsten looked nervous. Truth be told deep down I think they’re both worried the other will pip them at the post. It’s obviously between them two and it’s obviously going to be very close. I’d give maybe a 10% chance of someone else winning. If the race is slow or they both take it out very hard and try to stop the other overtaking then someone else could take it. After Jakobs 3:26.7 he ran last month we know he’s in top form however Danny Mackey said that Josh recently ran one of his key workouts the fastest he’s ever run it. This tells us Josh is also in top shape. Josh is obviously in under 3:28 time trial shape I’m not sure if he’s under 3:27 however this is the Olympics not a time trial and Josh has a slightly better kick than Jakob. I listened to Steve cram in the commentary and he hinted that he thinks the same style of race will happen in the final. I think he’s probably right. I think Kerr might pull a switcheroo and also go to the back with ingebrigsten in the final. I think the main determiner of the winner is whoever conserves energy the best so doesn’t go out hard at the very start, gets a bit of draft, crucially whoever avoids running extra distance by minimising being on the outside at the curves and it’s also very important t to not get too cramped up in a group because you have to adjust your stride pattern and jostle around which is inefficient. Because the final is so deep though they might struggle to move up to the front after the first lap or so. I could see Jakob trying to front run but going slower than usual on the first half then ripping the last half with an increase in pace for every 200m split . It’ll be close but I’ll pick Kerr to win at 50% chance Jakob at 40%. One slightly worrying thing for Jakob was his diamond league performance against cheriyout, the one before Monaco so a couple of months ago. It was a 3:30 race or something so a bit slower and cheriyout really nearly out kicked jakob at the end. We know he is fitter now but I don’t think Jakob can lead from the start and I don’t think he can let the pace be slow.
IMO the heaviest burden is on Jakob. He has only one viable approach to win it and I don't think he will execute. I think his problem is actually his start. Mark my words - he's going to take too long to get to the front and that's a precious 1-2 seconds for the likes of Kerr to save their legs for a better kick. Without a shred of doubt Jakob is going to pace this race, but whether it's a 3:27 or 3:28 will be the difference between gold and silver.
We're all expecting Kerr to kick from 150-200m out and Jakob will be anticipating that but Hocker is going to go from 250m out and jump them just before that moment. Catch them both for hesitating for a second. Don't sleep on Hocker's unreal kick.
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