USA puts 3 in the 1500m Final

I thought of this. I think this scenario is a possibility.

But how about this chess move:

1) Kerr knows that Jakob likes to hang back at the start.

2) Kerr also knows that Jakob has a much faster PB and will win a time trial.

3) Therefore KERR jumps out to the early lead, while Jakob is malingering around in last place and gathering his wits, and KERR immediately makes it a time trial--with Jakob suddenly needing to make up 20 meters on the leader.

Sure, Jakob could sprint back to the front, but with Kerr already moving at time trial speed, that will take a major early effort from Jakob. Meanwhile KERR is the one moving smoothly and not wasting any effort, and running at the front and on the rail which is how Jakob always managed to get his fast time trial times.

A complete role reversal, eh? Could work. It would be a clever ploy by Kerr and could be his best chance: play Jakob's usual role and force Jakob to catch up.

If I see him holding a mirror on the start line I will agree you have something here!! lol Might be an interesting strategy for YN or Tim though.

I think what we're both getting at here is that Jakob could be taking a big risk if he hangs back at the start, given the strength of this field.

This is not like a heat when Jakob knows he can run 3:30+ and still qualify easily.

This is a stacked Olympic final, probably the fastest ever 1500m field, and Jakob has minimal room to screw around with race tactics.

If Jakob does hang back, then BOOM someone could jump to the front and suddenly Jakob has to catch a lot of fast guys from a disadvantageous position, which would require him to spend a lot of time in lanes 2 and 3 and burn a lot of energy.

Jakob tends to up his pace every time he returns to the starting line (400-500; 800-900; and again from 1200-1300). He doesn't need to take it out hard and make it a 3:28 race from the front. The ace up his sleeve is progressively getting onto that kind of pace as he tightens the screws each lap. He dawdled somewhat in yesterday's semi, but dropped a sub-14 split from 800-900m. Each was similar or faster from then on home. People who can time-trial 3:29-3:30 aren't used to cranking it up, they usually try holding on to the 1:51-1:52 pace offered by the pacer. This is where Jakob excels at dropping most people.

Bears repeating that our 2012 squad was also pretty amazing. Very nearly two medalists, and while the third guy disappointed a bit on the day, he was a 3:30 man going in.

This team is quite good as well though and could very well beat the 2012 team's placements in the finals. Hocker and Nuguse look like genuine gold medal threats (even against the might of Jakob and Kerr) and Kessler will be in the mix as well.

All I'm saying is, Jakob's tactic of hanging back may be less effective if the other guys take it out fast and force Jakob to make up a lot of ground just to get back to even again.

From my eye, Kessler has shown tremendous improvement as a racer. He ran comfortably on the rail most of his semi, got out of a box like a magician late in the race, and comfortably finished 2nd behind Goose. There is probably too much talent in the final for him to contend with and medal, but really like his development, improvement in tactics and race awareness, and the decision to double in the 800 is a great sign as well.

Kessler is a young guy and has plenty of energy. Reminds me a little of Aregawi who is 23 (I think) and had a big sprint left in him at the end of the 10K final.

If Aregawi doesn't find that massive sprint, Fisher wins the silver.

SUPER excited for this final!!! I picked TC for 3rd in the prediction contest, but I’m like Hocker for third now; definitely think an American medals!!! They all look great.

If Jakob was smart, he would just stay at the back at that point then...Why go to the front if they are already going fast.

Because then Jakob will finish last.

OK, not last, but if it's going to be a time trial, why would Jakob want to cede so much ground? He has a good kick but not the best kick, so he doesn't want to stay at the back in a time trial. He wants to be at or near the front, controlling the pace and grinding the field into dust.

In any race, if there are guys with clearly better PB's, those guys should be pushing the pace. It's crazy not to. If they don't, someone like Centrowitz blitzes the last lap and steals the win.

Wheating didn’t make the final in 2012.

He was 9th in his semi and only 5 made it out of that heat.

Manzano 2nd, Centro 4th in final was pretty good.

I think they can get 3 in the top 6 this year.

Or maybe one of the favorites bombs and the US gets 2 medals.

What made-for-television live theater that would be.

But, it may very well happen . . . with the more likely candidate taking it out hard being Nuguse.

Whomever pushes hard from the gun, Jakob won't be "malingering" for more than a few meters.

Why would Nuguse take it out hard? Nuguse can't win a time trial.

I think Nuguse is in a gray limbo area in this race: his PB is too slow to win a time trial, and he couldn't beat Hocker or Kerr in a kick. So Nuguse has problems. I don't know why some people think he has chances. Maybe he could somehow get bronze if Hocker trips or something.

Naguse outkicked Kerr in Zurich

This is complete nonsense. Jakob 'hangs back' for like 200 meters or so and generally comes to the front by the 300 meter mark or so. Even if Kerr did push hard for the first 700 meters, it would just spread out the field and make it easy for Jakob to stay clear of any crowd 10 meters behind. On the 3rd lap when everyone slows, he'd be able to move to the front and outsprint whoever was doing all the work.

Honestly, I think you were drunk when you posted this because at best it's a way for Kerr to get gapped by like 6 people on the last lap.

This 1500 field has such quality that the three Americans may not medal. It's possible that one (or more?) might medal, but if they all race well and don't medal I don't see it as a major disappointment, just a recognition of how damn hard it is to medal.

I agree, but despite that none might medal. Of course I hope that one or more do. Other track events have quality but the 1500 here is incredibly stacked. JI and Kerr are the prohibitive favorites, but either could wind up out of the medals should some others run their best races. And I think of some very good runners who didn't make the final. All I'm thinking about today is this race. If you're a track fan it doesn't get any better than this.

Jakob would absolutely love it if Kerr did this. He can take his time closing the gap by 700m or so, sit there, and then pass him with 200m to go. i don't think this would be that difficult for him. I highly doubt Kerr will do this.