12 mile tempo is not 26 miles. Connor is a great runner, but how many threads popped up about Zach panning running an 18 mile tt before the trials at 4:50ish pace while running 120 mile weeks? A lot happens from miles 22-26. I hope our guys do amazing, but at some point Americans need to stop bragging about workouts(especially workouts that are not even half the distance of the race) and switch to not leaving all their races in the workouts.
I don't think panning is a fair example. He put out a far better effort than the final time reflected. He tried getting the Olympic standard at the trials in fairly hot conditions for the marathon and blew up.
I raced in the trials and it was disgusting! That said, I am not picking on Panning who is far better than me, I am just saying that a thread popped up about how amazing he was going to do in the trials because some big 18 mile workout he did and it’s happened with numerous other runners. However, the race gets hard at 22-23 miles so I don’t think a 12 mile workouts correlate's well to a marathon prediction. I hope nothing but the best from our guys, I predict Young starts to beat Mantz at some point because I don’t feel he leaves all his races in his workouts as it seems mantz does.
For me I hope Mantz and Young go for it in the race. A little like Jess Hull said last week, die having given it a shot than die wondering. Who cares if they finish 8th or 38th ? Be in the mix at 32k and roll with it.
I wouldn't put much weight on a 12mile workout for a marathon. At this stage they should be practicing hills and heat/humidity, itll be bigger factor than raw pace
That's a solid workout, but nothing I wouldn't expect an altitude-trained 60-minute half guy to be able to do. It's basically 12 miles at goal marathon pace. 4500 feet takes a bit out of you, but it feels closer to sea level than it does to 7000.
Just checked this.
Effective Oxygen at sea level is 20.9%
Effective Oxygen at 4500 ft is 17.5%
Effective Oxygen at 7000 ft is 16.0%
I know. But that doesn't tell you about the effect on performance. People who have done regular workouts at 4500 and 7000 (especially if they're altitude adapted), will tell you that 4500 doesn't feel much worse than sea level.
The reason is that at sea level, diffusion of oxygen from the lungs into the bloodstream isn't a limiting factor. This is really easy to observe with a $20 pulse oximeter. Oxygen delivery in trained athletes is largely limited at the periphery--in the muscles themselves. At 4500 feet, most people still have little difficulty getting their blood fully oxygenated. It isn't until you get higher that you start to see arterial blood oxygen levels drop during exercise.
12 mile tempo is not 26 miles. Connor is a great runner, but how many threads popped up about Zach panning running an 18 mile tt before the trials at 4:50ish pace while running 120 mile weeks? A lot happens from miles 22-26. I hope our guys do amazing, but at some point Americans need to stop bragging about workouts(especially workouts that are not even half the distance of the race) and switch to not leaving all their races in the workouts.
I don't think panning is a fair example. He put out a far better effort than the final time reflected. He tried getting the Olympic standard at the trials in fairly hot conditions for the marathon and blew up.
But it’s also evident that Panning DID leave his race in that workout. He was cooked and we saw what happened when he tried to run that pace at the trials. More than Mantz blowing up at the trials, all accounts of his race make it seem as if he got in his own head the last couple miles and convinced himself he was going to blow up and miss the team.
For a guy who is America’s best marathoner over the past two years (and only two years of marathoning), people on this thread sure are making him seem like he doesn’t know how to train or race.
But it’s also evident that Panning DID leave his race in that workout. He was cooked and we saw what happened when he tried to run that pace at the trials. More than Mantz blowing up at the trials, all accounts of his race make it seem as if he got in his own head the last couple miles and convinced himself he was going to blow up and miss the team.
For a guy who is America’s best marathoner over the past two years (and only two years of marathoning), people on this thread sure are making him seem like he doesn’t know how to train or race.
It's not remotely evident that Panning left his race in the workout or that he got into his own head.
It's very clear that Panning attempted to beat his PR by 1.5-2 minutes from the front in heat and humidity and blew up as a result.
It's literally the same for any distance runner. You will not beat a paced PR in good conditions by running from the front in bad conditions. It literally doesn't happen in any event 1500 or longer. Kinda running 101.
His PR was set in Chicago (basically the BU of marathons)
I don't think panning is a fair example. He put out a far better effort than the final time reflected. He tried getting the Olympic standard at the trials in fairly hot conditions for the marathon and blew up.
For a guy who is America’s best marathoner over the past two years (and only two years of marathoning), people on this thread sure are making him seem like he doesn’t know how to train or race.
This I agree with. Beyond maybe not giving himself enough recovery after races, he’s had a solid two years, very consistent. Blew up a little at Boston, but, hey, he was going for a high finish more than a fast time, which I respect.
But it does seem like he really struggles with the last 5k of the marathon. I almost wonder if he wouldn’t be better off doing longer runs (35-40k) at a fast but not time trial pace (so like 5:10 per mile +/-) over these PMPs?
For a guy who is America’s best marathoner over the past two years (and only two years of marathoning), people on this thread sure are making him seem like he doesn’t know how to train or race.
This I agree with. Beyond maybe not giving himself enough recovery after races, he’s had a solid two years, very consistent. Blew up a little at Boston, but, hey, he was going for a high finish more than a fast time, which I respect.
But it does seem like he really struggles with the last 5k of the marathon. I almost wonder if he wouldn’t be better off doing longer runs (35-40k) at a fast but not time trial pace (so like 5:10 per mile +/-) over these PMPs?
As is always the case, a strong finish is a function of pace, and not specific training.
This I agree with. Beyond maybe not giving himself enough recovery after races, he’s had a solid two years, very consistent. Blew up a little at Boston, but, hey, he was going for a high finish more than a fast time, which I respect.
But it does seem like he really struggles with the last 5k of the marathon. I almost wonder if he wouldn’t be better off doing longer runs (35-40k) at a fast but not time trial pace (so like 5:10 per mile +/-) over these PMPs?
As is always the case, a strong finish is a function of pace, and not specific training.
The pace you’re able to sustain over 26.2 miles is a function of specific training. A strong finish in the marathon has everything to do with specific training.
As is always the case, a strong finish is a function of pace, and not specific training.
The pace you’re able to sustain over 26.2 miles is a function of specific training. A strong finish in the marathon has everything to do with specific training.
But everyone is the race will have done specific training for a marathon. The guys that are 4-5 minutes faster than Mantz, will have a better finish off of any pace.
There is a bit less than a 1 % drop in saturation at 4500 feet, and a about a 2.5% drop at 7000. The difference from basically sea level to 4500 (.8%) is about half that from 4500 to 7000 (1.5%)
But it does seem like he really struggles with the last 5k of the marathon. I almost wonder if he wouldn’t be better off doing longer runs (35-40k) at a fast but not time trial pace (so like 5:10 per mile +/-) over these PMPs?
he did run a 20 miler recently ending at PMP. Overall the average pace was 5:20.
The pace you’re able to sustain over 26.2 miles is a function of specific training. A strong finish in the marathon has everything to do with specific training.
But everyone is the race will have done specific training for a marathon. The guys that are 4-5 minutes faster than Mantz, will have a better finish off of any pace.
Of course they will. They’ve all done specific training to get them 4 or 5 minutes faster than Mantz. Does Kipchoge close a marathon harder than Mantz because of his pace? No, it’s because of his specific training which is a level above Mantz. Kelvin Kiptum had a strong finish because his training put him in a position to finish strong.
Six weeks until the Paris Olympics and Conner Mantz and Clayton Young are putting in the work with Jared Ward, Iain Hunter, and Dalton Mortensen on a Saturda...
I already expect great things from him. I think he is going to do well on that difficult marathon course. Rumor is that it is going to be mental race, and I think that is in Mantz's favor. I think he will run for broke and come up big. I am excited to watch both marathons. I think our women will do well too.
I hear that the course and heat could see the winning time around 2:12. If our boys are prepped well for the elevation gain and heat, they could top 10 with a smart race. Jared Ward is probably a great mentor considering how he ran Rio.
Not only will they have the benefits of lessons learned in Rio, but going back to the Athens Olympic marathon, which was hilly and hot, where Meb and Deena medaled, our coaches (Vigil and Larsen) did their research on how to prepare for and race that type of marathon. If our men and women listen to their coaches about race strategy, they should have the opportunity to finish much better against the Kenyans and Ethiopians than many anticipate.
I don't think panning is a fair example. He put out a far better effort than the final time reflected. He tried getting the Olympic standard at the trials in fairly hot conditions for the marathon and blew up.
I raced in the trials and it was disgusting! That said, I am not picking on Panning who is far better than me, I am just saying that a thread popped up about how amazing he was going to do in the trials because some big 18 mile workout he did and it’s happened with numerous other runners. However, the race gets hard at 22-23 miles so I don’t think a 12 mile workouts correlate's well to a marathon prediction. I hope nothing but the best from our guys, I predict Young starts to beat Mantz at some point because I don’t feel he leaves all his races in his workouts as it seems mantz does.
Given you've competed in the trials, which means you're an accomplished marathoner, I'm a bit surprised of you saying, "I don’t think a 12-mile workout correlate's well to a marathon prediction". The 12-mile workout is only a piece of the training plan, which was probably run during a 100+ mile week of training including other sessions. As you know (or may not), training for the marathon is done in phases. A double day of a 12 mile-tempo in the AM and a light run or fartlek in the PM (6-8 miles). Now you have a cumulative 18–20-mile day of quality work completed.
In the midst of 120 mile weeks done in six days, 7000ft+ of elevation gain weekly, and living and training in Park City, he just ran a 12 mile tempo at 4:46avg at 4500 feet. Expect great things in Paris!
He won't crack top 10. COME AT ME
If it's hot, raining, or windy (or all three), he'll medal. Especially with those hills.
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