Conner Mantz is FIT!

For me I hope Mantz and Young go for it in the race. A little like Jess Hull said last week, die having given it a shot than die wondering. Who cares if they finish 8th or 38th ? Be in the mix at 32k and roll with it.

I wouldn't put much weight on a 12mile workout for a marathon. At this stage they should be practicing hills and heat/humidity, itll be bigger factor than raw pace

I know. But that doesn't tell you about the effect on performance. People who have done regular workouts at 4500 and 7000 (especially if they're altitude adapted), will tell you that 4500 doesn't feel much worse than sea level.

The reason is that at sea level, diffusion of oxygen from the lungs into the bloodstream isn't a limiting factor. This is really easy to observe with a $20 pulse oximeter. Oxygen delivery in trained athletes is largely limited at the periphery--in the muscles themselves. At 4500 feet, most people still have little difficulty getting their blood fully oxygenated. It isn't until you get higher that you start to see arterial blood oxygen levels drop during exercise.

But it’s also evident that Panning DID leave his race in that workout. He was cooked and we saw what happened when he tried to run that pace at the trials. More than Mantz blowing up at the trials, all accounts of his race make it seem as if he got in his own head the last couple miles and convinced himself he was going to blow up and miss the team.

For a guy who is America’s best marathoner over the past two years (and only two years of marathoning), people on this thread sure are making him seem like he doesn’t know how to train or race.

It's not remotely evident that Panning left his race in the workout or that he got into his own head.

It's very clear that Panning attempted to beat his PR by 1.5-2 minutes from the front in heat and humidity and blew up as a result.

It's literally the same for any distance runner. You will not beat a paced PR in good conditions by running from the front in bad conditions. It literally doesn't happen in any event 1500 or longer. Kinda running 101.

His PR was set in Chicago (basically the BU of marathons)

This I agree with. Beyond maybe not giving himself enough recovery after races, he’s had a solid two years, very consistent. Blew up a little at Boston, but, hey, he was going for a high finish more than a fast time, which I respect.

But it does seem like he really struggles with the last 5k of the marathon. I almost wonder if he wouldn’t be better off doing longer runs (35-40k) at a fast but not time trial pace (so like 5:10 per mile +/-) over these PMPs?

As is always the case, a strong finish is a function of pace, and not specific training.

The pace you’re able to sustain over 26.2 miles is a function of specific training. A strong finish in the marathon has everything to do with specific training.

But everyone is the race will have done specific training for a marathon. The guys that are 4-5 minutes faster than Mantz, will have a better finish off of any pace.

There is more oxygen at 0 vs 4500 feet. But we already have almost all we can use at 4500 anyway, once acclimatized

blood oxygen saturation

@ 500 ft: 99%

@2000 ft: 99%

@5500 ft: 98%

@8000 ft: 96%

@10500 ft: 93%

@13500 ft: 88%

https://repositori.upf.edu/bitstream/handle/10230/35310/rojas-thor-refe.pdf

Measurements were taken from people that were acclimatized (2 months) at each location

There is a bit less than a 1 % drop in saturation at 4500 feet, and a about a 2.5% drop at 7000. The difference from basically sea level to 4500 (.8%) is about half that from 4500 to 7000 (1.5%)

he did run a 20 miler recently ending at PMP. Overall the average pace was 5:20.

Of course they will. They’ve all done specific training to get them 4 or 5 minutes faster than Mantz. Does Kipchoge close a marathon harder than Mantz because of his pace? No, it’s because of his specific training which is a level above Mantz. Kelvin Kiptum had a strong finish because his training put him in a position to finish strong.

This video has a short clip of him on a 25 miler at 6500 feet with a similar elevation change as Paris. It also shows the mile splits.

So you're saying kipchoge will run faster than Mantz, because he runs faster than Mantz?

Not only will they have the benefits of lessons learned in Rio, but going back to the Athens Olympic marathon, which was hilly and hot, where Meb and Deena medaled, our coaches (Vigil and Larsen) did their research on how to prepare for and race that type of marathon. If our men and women listen to their coaches about race strategy, they should have the opportunity to finish much better against the Kenyans and Ethiopians than many anticipate.

I think they’ll run together thru at least 16 miles.

Given you've competed in the trials, which means you're an accomplished marathoner, I'm a bit surprised of you saying, "I don’t think a 12-mile workout correlate's well to a marathon prediction". The 12-mile workout is only a piece of the training plan, which was probably run during a 100+ mile week of training including other sessions. As you know (or may not), training for the marathon is done in phases. A double day of a 12 mile-tempo in the AM and a light run or fartlek in the PM (6-8 miles). Now you have a cumulative 18–20-mile day of quality work completed.

Congrats on qualifying for the trials.

If it's hot, raining, or windy (or all three), he'll medal. Especially with those hills.

Mantz for gold. Calling it now.