Why would Elle Purrier St. Pierre open a spot for Valby in the 5k?

I mostly agree. But I right now there's only one Kenyan and a slew of Ethiopians with significantly faster 2024 5000 times, so it's not inconceivable that she could get a bronze if there are a couple of bad races or some drug busts.

Not at all. Sifan Hassan would dust ESP in a 5k in Paris. Even in Marathon shape and since she won't focus on a single event she's what I would consider a 3rd-4th place contender. ESP has an actual shot in the 1500 regardless of who shows up. Just needs to be a 3:55-7 race.

I agree! Based on the 800 at Adrian Martinez, the slower the final, the more dangerous for ESP.

I expect she knows this, and will do whatever she has to make sure the race is fast enough that she doesn't get outkicked.

I also assume that being in shape for the 5000 gives her an edge in the rounds, although as you say, having run the 5000 doesn't help.

PS I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that of the three you mention, MacKay is the only real threat.

I agree!

PS In my defense, I was replying to the silly claim that H, M & M "might" be in shape to run 3:57. Even the OP has realized that isn't going to happen, and has changed to the sensible point that M & M (especially MacKay) could be dangerous if the race is slow.

I still think that ESP has an edge, but as you all say, that 800 shows her edge is smaller than I thought!

Taoufik Makhloufi had a problem because of that rule at the 2012 Olympics. He entered the 800 and 1500 but didn't realise the double wasn't really possible for scheduling reasons. In his 800 heat he dropped out likely pretending to be injured so as not to be disqualified for the 1500. What I found amazing about that is that at an Olympics presided over by Seb Coe the 800 1500 double wasn't possible.

If ESP and Valby say no to the 5000, will we send only 2? The next up is Whittni Morgan who doesn't have the standard

Wayment and a slew of others are Olympic qualified via world ranking. We will send 3 in any case.

Not so clear in 10k.

a lot of you are overlooking the spite and hatred pretty women have towards one another (trust me, I have seen it firsthand in the office/school etc).

giving up a spot to the younger pretty up and coming blonde starlet - absolutely not

Morgan would go per her ranking.

And after Morgan, Buchalski and Donaghu also have ranking.

It is possible -- but unlikely-- that if ESP and Cranny make it in the 1500 and decide to run only that in Paris, AND Karissa and Valby make it in 10k and decide to run only that in Paris, the 5k team would be Morgan, Buchalski and Donaghu, the 5th, 6th and 7th place in the 5k final.

ESP will not do this. If we've learned anything about her it's that she's an ultra competitor among ultra competitors... Her dominance-seeking is comprehensive: inside the team, outside the team, in line at Starbucks even, I'm sure. That's why she's an indoor World Champ and that's why she's going to be on the podium for a least one of the two races in Paris.

ESP will not do what?

What if she 'jogs' the 5000 prelim? She could run 15:30 to 15:45, almost certainly not advance, and have run a tempo.

you're right but ESP obviously doesnt care about looks

Defer to PV in the 5000 out of the kindness of her heart. It won't happen.

Accurate, and precise in this case. ESP's visible post race angst toward losing the indoor 15 in 2022 to MacLean was truly awkward, and last night's post-race interview stepping over MacKay to be the first to answer the question with MacKay visibly backing off lead us all to conclude that there is to be only one focus on that team...

Not Obama, this

100%, she has historically always been more than happy to make the race fast. Like Yared, she knows she can front-run a time (3:56-3:57) that only 1-2 others are going to be able to hang with. Going straight to the front and clicking off 64s with a big last 500 is her simplest path to the team, and I would say it also benefits her teammates (who will know what the plan is and can tuck in early, won't miss the move, etc.).

ESP is the boss

a rude boss at that