Valby is the first woman in collegiate history to win five NCAA distance titles in the same academic year and did it in style by running 14:52.18 to break the collegiate record.
Imagine if Cranny and Schweizer decide a sub 14:50 pace is more than they bargained for, and decide to fight it out for 3rd, with other events on the horizon.
No way that they don’t run with her, and 14:50 is not a fast pace for them, anyway.
She ran 9:21 for her last two miles just two weeks ago.
The 3K you referenced was indoors, the day after running a 14:52 5K.
Without checking the numbers, is that actually true? Because if so, that 9:21 was with a 10000m in her legs from two days prior, so maybe she can hold close to that pace for the full 3.1. Which would mean: 14:30! 😮
She was 9:26 for her last 3200 m in NCAA 5000. 5:26 at 1800 and 14:52 finish.
At this juncture, she should meter it out and run it until she expires, like she ran her cross-country races.
70.point’s from the gun might be a bit rich, but something sub-72’s wouldn’t be too surprising.
You’re assuming that she doesn’t have anything to lose, which is false. Being passed by everyone and their sister, over the last part of the race, would be humiliating.
At this juncture, she should meter it out and run it until she expires, like she ran her cross-country races.
70.point’s from the gun might be a bit rich, but something sub-72’s wouldn’t be too surprising.
You’re assuming that she doesn’t have anything to lose, which is false. Being passed by everyone and their sister, over the last part of the race, would be humiliating.
Without checking the numbers, is that actually true? Because if so, that 9:21 was with a 10000m in her legs from two days prior, so maybe she can hold close to that pace for the full 3.1. Which would mean: 14:30! 😮
She was 9:26 for her last 3200 m in NCAA 5000. 5:26 at 1800 and 14:52 finish.
Okay, thanks. Using Gault’s article neglects rounding error.
So per reasoning in my earlier post, it is not too unreasonable to think she might be able to hold that last 3200m pace for close to the full 5000m, which gives: 14:44. That seems plausible.
Okay, thanks. Using Gault’s article neglects rounding error.
So per reasoning in my earlier post, it is not too unreasonable to think she might be able to hold that last 3200m pace for close to the full 5000m, which gives: 14:44. That seems plausible.
it makes sense, especially of you look at Hilda O's results (ran same 2 races) compared to her 5000 pr.
Okay, thanks. Using Gault’s article neglects rounding error.
So per reasoning in my earlier post, it is not too unreasonable to think she might be able to hold that last 3200m pace for close to the full 5000m, which gives: 14:44. That seems plausible.
I know they can obviously run that pace. It’s the pace they ran two weeks ago in 60 degree weather. Neither had any kick left, though. Cranny closed in 69+ and Schweizer was behind her (not sure what her split was).
A false premise that I keep seeing: "Valby can't kick"
She had zero incentive to try and kick with ESP. She said in her interview that she didn't care about winning her heat and just wanted to advance. For all we know, she might have a good kick.
If she leads again, she's basically just rabbiting the big 3. Unless she is secretly in 14:25 shape, she won't be dropping them. I think that she should hang back with the pack early and look for an opportunity to throw in a surge when the big 3 are out of position to respond. If she can open a 2-3 second gap on them and just press as hard as she can, that might be all she needs.
That premise is not based on one race. Valby has run many races. I have not seen her demonstrate much of a kick in the races I have watched, but I have not seen all her races. Are there any examples of her having a strong kick?
Hey I like Valby and hope she can make the team but your theory is over the top. By the time they figure what out?? ESP and Cranny’s kick are deadly and Schweizer will be right there with them
Valby does not have to run against the career resume and lifetime bests of ESP, Cranny and Schweitzer. She just has to deal with what they bring in that one race on that one night.
Weather looks good, PV likes heat anyway. Given that she always shows up and has comfortably coasted to 14:52, my guess is she aims for 14:40 and hopes one of the big 3 has an off day.
If she runs like that and still finishes 4th, there is no shame in that.
Any other strategy is out of her comfort zone and just brings more competitors into the race.
2) Take the lead halfway through and pick up the pace significantly
3) Kick from 800-1000m out
She’s not winning this race obviously, and she doesn’t seem to have a kick. What is the best strategy for her to finish top 3?
Run low 14:30s(or the equivalent given the heat) to drop Karissa is her best chance. Karissa is hiding her cards extremely well right now though. Her and Valby Might trade qualifying positions between the 5 and the 10. Just my opinion
Run low 14:30s(or the equivalent given the heat) to drop Karissa is her best chance. Karissa is hiding her cards extremely well right now though. Her and Valby Might trade qualifying positions between the 5 and the 10. Just my opinion
Say Parker gets 3rd in the 5K, Is she eligible to race in the Olympics? Without the standard would her WA ranking be high enough?
