So unbelievably true on Hocker. Most secure man in the race, any pace benefits him.
Any pace benefits him? He have never run faster than 3.30. His second best time is a 3.32.
You guys have to stop thinking like this. Nuguse can beat Hocker in any type of race right now what are we talking about. I would only say that he is the only one I could even see beating Nuguse. But I think there's a higher chance that he gets boxed in with three great moves from waskom,holt, teare and he's out.
Didn't even account for the craziness centro might pull off either. This race is pretty much going to be his Olympics.
Any pace benefits him? He have never run faster than 3.30. His second best time is a 3.32.
You guys have to stop thinking like this. Nuguse can beat Hocker in any type of race right now what are we talking about. I would only say that he is the only one I could even see beating Nuguse. But I think there's a higher chance that he gets boxed in with three great moves from waskom,holt, teare and he's out.
Didn't even account for the craziness centro might pull off either. This race is pretty much going to be his Olympics.
*knock on wood* Hocker is as tactically sound as it gets, if I was gonna pick two guys in this field to NOT do something stupid tactically, it would be Waskom and him (and then Green). Eric Holt and Teare are not gonna out-race Hocker for a spot in the Olympics. Not in a 1500. Other guys could, but it won't be them two.
And Nuguse is not head and shoulders above this field. He is head and shoulders above this field in terms of time. His lack of racing ability brings him down. He's still the favorite, for good reason, and I would be surprised if he loss, but he's beatable.
I think there should now be real concern that Waskom would not get in on World Ranking if he gets top 3 in a slow race. If USAs is slow I think he very well may be SOL. It is a combo of a slow NCAAs and his PB from last year being run in a Mickey Mouse meet (only 40 bonus points for a win). His Dempsey 3:53 counting as outdoors not indoors hurt as does his crappy 24 regular season. A bunch of guys are going to run 3:34-5 in Gold/Silver meets gaining valuable points, and this situation is continually getting worse.
You guys have to stop thinking like this. Nuguse can beat Hocker in any type of race right now what are we talking about. I would only say that he is the only one I could even see beating Nuguse. But I think there's a higher chance that he gets boxed in with three great moves from waskom,holt, teare and he's out.
Didn't even account for the craziness centro might pull off either. This race is pretty much going to be his Olympics.
*knock on wood* Hocker is as tactically sound as it gets, if I was gonna pick two guys in this field to NOT do something stupid tactically, it would be Waskom and him (and then Green). Eric Holt and Teare are not gonna out-race Hocker for a spot in the Olympics. Not in a 1500. Other guys could, but it won't be them two.
And Nuguse is not head and shoulders above this field. He is head and shoulders above this field in terms of time. His lack of racing ability brings him down. He's still the favorite, for good reason, and I would be surprised if he loss, but he's beatable.
Hocker is the only person that can beat Nuguse at the Olympic Trials.
You guys have to stop thinking like this. Nuguse can beat Hocker in any type of race right now what are we talking about. I would only say that he is the only one I could even see beating Nuguse. But I think there's a higher chance that he gets boxed in with three great moves from waskom,holt, teare and he's out.
Didn't even account for the craziness centro might pull off either. This race is pretty much going to be his Olympics.
*knock on wood* Hocker is as tactically sound as it gets, if I was gonna pick two guys in this field to NOT do something stupid tactically, it would be Waskom and him (and then Green). Eric Holt and Teare are not gonna out-race Hocker for a spot in the Olympics. Not in a 1500. Other guys could, but it won't be them two.
And Nuguse is not head and shoulders above this field. He is head and shoulders above this field in terms of time. His lack of racing ability brings him down. He's still the favorite, for good reason, and I would be surprised if he loss, but he's beatable.
I truly think he is head and shoulders above them. They couldn't solo a 3:29 he probably can.
I truly think he is head and shoulders above them. They couldn't solo a 3:29 he probably can.
But he won't. Not at the Trials.
Which means at the Trials, he's not head and shoulders above the rest of them.
Well for some reason everyone thinks Hocker is the best bet to win other than him. And from what I can see yared has beaten hocker the last 10 times they raced. That is being Head and shoulders knees and toes above your competitor to me idk about you lol
*Actually Yared has beaten hocker the last 12 times they raced including the mile. Don't die in this hill blah blah I won the argument lol
He's also beaten Hobbs by 2+ seconds the last 3 times they raced a 1500m. So again yes I truly have reason to see that he's clearly better than them in all situations.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Which means at the Trials, he's not head and shoulders above the rest of them.
Well for some reason everyone thinks Hocker is the best bet to win other than him. And from what I can see yared has beaten hocker the last 10 times they raced. That is being Head and shoulders knees and toes above your competitor to me idk about you lol
*Actually Yared has beaten hocker the last 12 times they raced including the mile. Don't die in this hill blah blah I won the argument lol
He's also beaten Hobbs by 2+ seconds the last 3 times they raced a 1500m. So again yes I truly have reason to see that he's clearly better than them in all situations.
You're not thinking about the context of the race
In 1500M's with the winning time above 3:34, it's 3-2 goose
The US Trials/Champs has not finished in a time below 3:34 in the last 10 years.
This is also the strongest Hocker we've ever seen, he's PRed in both the 800 and 5K in one season.
He has faster PR's than Nuguse in both the 5K and the 800.
As for the Hobbs point, two races from 2022, 1 from 2023. In 2022, Nuguse was head and shoulders above this field. Right now, he's not.
P.S: if you have to announce you won an argument, you usually didn't :)
In 1500M's with the winning time above 3:34, it's 3-2 goose
The US Trials/Champs has not finished in a time below 3:34 in the last 10 years.
This is also the strongest Hocker we've ever seen, he's PRed in both the 800 and 5K in one season.
He has faster PR's than Nuguse in both the 5K and the 800.
As for the Hobbs point, two races from 2022, 1 from 2023. In 2022, Nuguse was head and shoulders above this field. Right now, he's not.
P.S: if you have to announce you won an argument, you usually didn't :)
I think Yared is heads and shoulders over everyone in the field but Hocker. If you play out their strengths and weaknesses, Hocker does gain a lot from the dynamics of a USA Trials race. 1) He is much more comfortable running in a pack and shifting gears to make position
2) He has some of the fastest max speed (12.20) seen in a 3:35+ race
This pushes Nuguse to avoid 1 and 2 by running up front and dictating a solid pace to set up 52-53 type last lap.
It was funny cuz when I asked Kessler about the possibility of a really slow US final he described that as more “random” than an honest pace one. And I think he is correct in many ways in that a 3:40 race opens it up to Nathan Green, Colin Sahlman, Elliott Cook, Eric Holt et al in a way a 3:33 race wouldn’t. Who has a good ride and positioning/timing would separate a large group of guys unlike in a fast race. However, I’d still have Hocker to win pretty handily in that outcome and wouldn’t consider that part random at all. So maybe it’s more of a question of wide open vs. a race that narrows it down. I’m pretty sure Yared and Kessler will ensure it’s a pretty fast race with something like 57-57-59-kick. In that case, I still like Yared because he can drop a 25.9-26.2 last 200 and Hocker might give him a gap.
In 1500M's with the winning time above 3:34, it's 3-2 goose
The US Trials/Champs has not finished in a time below 3:34 in the last 10 years.
This is also the strongest Hocker we've ever seen, he's PRed in both the 800 and 5K in one season.
He has faster PR's than Nuguse in both the 5K and the 800.
As for the Hobbs point, two races from 2022, 1 from 2023. In 2022, Nuguse was head and shoulders above this field. Right now, he's not.
P.S: if you have to announce you won an argument, you usually didn't :)
I think Yared is heads and shoulders over everyone in the field but Hocker. If you play out their strengths and weaknesses, Hocker does gain a lot from the dynamics of a USA Trials race. 1) He is much more comfortable running in a pack and shifting gears to make position
2) He has some of the fastest max speed (12.20) seen in a 3:35+ race
This pushes Nuguse to avoid 1 and 2 by running up front and dictating a solid pace to set up 52-53 type last lap.
It was funny cuz when I asked Kessler about the possibility of a really slow US final he described that as more “random” than an honest pace one. And I think he is correct in many ways in that a 3:40 race opens it up to Nathan Green, Colin Sahlman, Elliott Cook, Eric Holt et al in a way a 3:33 race wouldn’t. Who has a good ride and positioning/timing would separate a large group of guys unlike in a fast race. However, I’d still have Hocker to win pretty handily in that outcome and wouldn’t consider that part random at all. So maybe it’s more of a question of wide open vs. a race that narrows it down. I’m pretty sure Yared and Kessler will ensure it’s a pretty fast race with something like 57-57-59-kick. In that case, I still like Yared because he can drop a 25.9-26.2 last 200 and Hocker might give him a gap.
I don't see Yared playing around here honestly. If I'm him I'd work with Kessler to take the first two laps and then go for a 3:30. That would kill off everyone but hocker and maybe teare essentially. Holt is the wildcard.
There's always a damn collegiate, man. Always. They might not have run 3:33 but you can never count those guys out. I think one is gonna make it through, and i'm guessing that it's gonna be Cook, who has been a silent killer this season, and took down the eventual NCAA champ Waskom at Pac-12s.
I think what a lot of people don’t think about too is that there is a very real possibility one of the favorites doesn’t even advance to the final. I’d be willing to put money that either Yared, Hocker, Kessler, Woskom, Green, Sahlman, or Teare isn’t even in the final. Things happen with positioning in the slow prelims.