Finally -- Clarity in Women's 5k for US Olympic Trials

In the 10k the only women who are for sure in with a top 3 finish are Weini Kelati (standard), Katie Izzo (XC), and Elly Henes (Monson's injury and O'Keeffe is doing the marathon which puts her in the rankings quota). Everyone else needs to run a certain time with a top 3 finish to guarantee a spot in the case there aren't any other athletes who drop out.

A 30:50 10,000 seems a lot closer to world-class than a 14:50 5,000. To me it's really a question of whether she and her coaches suspect that she's hiding a 14:30 5000 somewhere. A 30:40 10,000 seems more reachable.

Was it really 82 degrees for that (2024) race? If so, wow.

Wunderground verifies it was 82 degrees at the start of the 5k in Eugene.

Based on that, she can definitely run significantly faster in more moderate conditions.

Not true, Valby and probably a couple others can also still get in via world standard. In Valby's case she would need obviously top 3, and that gives bonus points for place, plus a time under roughly 31:30.

Olympic qualifying window thru June 30, so still chance after trials to improve. Also final list of who goes from around the world will impact the world list.

Sorry, you were actually right. They have to run a 'certain time' to move high enough in the world ranking. My bad.

I don't think so Coach. While that may be the best way for Valby to win, it is not necessary to qualify for the olympics because if she is in the top 3, it is hard seeing how she doesn't get in on points. Of course, hitting the qualifying time is the safest way if she can do it but not necessary.

Yep thsnks

The clarity is this: Parker Valby will destroy all comers.

Not getting too excited for American women in the 5 or 10.

Just hoping that all Americans not lapped in the 10.

At least there is a chance in the 8 and 15.

Correct . . . as of right now.

However, along with Euros and national championships, there are also several top-notch Continental Tour meets coming up this month where WA rankings can change dramatically, starting with this Saturday's "Bryan Clay-of-Europe" Heusden-Zolder/Belgium meet which annually produces great distance results:

Which is why I wrote earlier that, without a Q, PV or anyone does not control their own destiny. Especially in the 10k where all those xc qualifiers could, theoretically, be accepted by their national federations and compete in Paris, thus bumping others within the WA rankings quota but without their Qs.

Thus, slightly leaning in favor of PV racing the 5k at the Trials. It comes first on the schedule, she'll be fresh, weather looks ok at this point, and her pr is within 0.2 sec of the Q. Seems Parker should have a very good chance of racing in the 14:40s if she takes it from the gun.

Risk, of course, is her competition includes Olympians with faster prs who could simply sit on PV then run her down in the last lap. In this scenario, PV presumably makes the team if ESP sticks to the 1500. However, if the field includes ESP, then winding up with a Q in 4th place is a real possibility.

Which could still work out given the (far weaker) 10k several days later where the competition would only seem to be Kelati (note: Kelati is only racing the 10k). However, could PV run a time 10 seconds faster than her pr to get her Q, thus ensuring she goes to Paris?

The women's 10k is near the end of the trials so there won't be time to chase the standard after. And I said any athlete outside the 3 I named need a certain time with a top 3 finish. What that time is depends on where the athlete is in world ranking points. The athletes need an average ranking score of 1227 over 2 performances to qualify, and if Henes does well that number could go up. Different women would need different times depending on their current ranking and place at the trials but they need a time nonetheless. Valby would need ~31:20 with a win, ~31:10 with 2nd pace, and 31:05 with 3rd place. Of course this just guarantees it in the case no athletes drop out. If just 1 other athlete drops the number needed drastically goes down.

I don’t think Valby can beat ESP or Cranny. Karissa is one of my favorite runners and I believe she can out kick Valby but it wouldn’t shock me if she fell off a hot pace, assuming Valby has more than a 14:52 in her. Should be a fascinating race!

Even more so now that Andrews & Tuohy have resumed posting their workouts on IG and appear to have put in some solid training over the past few weeks.

If they are fit enough to get through their semifinal races, likely will be in contention with the leaders in the final, at least until the deciding moves are made.

Just counting the days until June 21st . . .

Meh! Wouldn’t place any bets on either of them. Posting what? Photos of them running on a track? Means nothing

That is the question. So many have been injured, who can get to peak fitness by the trials? ESP, Valby and Cranny... maybe Schweizer . Or Donaghu, Hertenstein who are dropping PRs right now.

Rogers, Andrews, Tuohy, Henes, Morgan all questionable.

Tuohy will have one of the slowest qualifying times in the field. But I am optimistic that she has the potential to be a factor if healthy.

I am pretty excited to see Roe in a pro race, and Gregory back to racing as well.

Once you get past the top 4-6, the rest of the field seems pretty evenly matched because. Some solid runners won't make the final.

This is actually the other way around. Current WA Road to Paris already has all the xc qualifiers on the list. If the federation does not send them, or they choose not to compete in 10000, those spots in the field will open up for others further down the world ranking list.

Assuming Henes is in, that includes group of Cranny, Shweitzer, Valby, who are all close and will also improve their standing with place points from US trials.

Ok.

Thx for clarification.

Still scratching my head re: scenarios of Izzo making the team . . . but should save that discussion for a "Clarity in Women's 10k" thread . . .

Yep.

And, we'll find out within the next two days if ESP & Henes scratch from the 5k to focus on the 1500 & 10k, respectively.