What can Jakob do in two months to beat Josh?

Trollminator wrote:

RunintheMudandRain wrote:

He's doing fine, he ran a 3:45 mile on base work. Even that interval session that was posted on you tube, he said that it was a 30.3 km day that's almost 19 miles in one day at altitude. So he was training at altitude 18-20 miles a day with very little speed work and still runs 3:45. OMG! He himself said he will get faster as he transitions his training to lower mileage and more speed. He just needs to continue and follow his plan :)

And you all just swallow anything he says. I call BS. Jakob probably put himself though a lot of hurt getting back to this amazing fitness level. He didn't show up to Pre to come in second, that's for sure. I think we saw Jakob's 1500 ceiling last year. He doesn't have enough speed to outkick few of the amazing runners in the game right now. With the 5K in the mix, we won't be seeing an improvement in his kick so if he's going to improve it's going to have to be an overall significant drop in his nonpaced race times.

I'm going to take a wild guess though that like in every year, Jakob will only run paced races until Paris. He is going to once again breeze through the rounds, but they will be in the heat and it will take something out if him. He is destined to do what Tim did for him in Tokyo and take the race out hard enough to guarantee himself a silver or bronze. A race slower than 3:31/2 is a massive risk to his chances of being top 3. He knows he can't do that. The only question is whether he will really go for a 3:26 on his own.

objectiveobserver wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

And you all just swallow anything he says. I call BS. Jakob probably put himself though a lot of hurt getting back to this amazing fitness level. He didn't show up to Pre to come in second, that's for sure. I think we saw Jakob's 1500 ceiling last year. He doesn't have enough speed to outkick few of the amazing runners in the game right now. With the 5K in the mix, we won't be seeing an improvement in his kick so if he's going to improve it's going to have to be an overall significant drop in his nonpaced race times.

I'm going to take a wild guess though that like in every year, Jakob will only run paced races until Paris. He is going to once again breeze through the rounds, but they will be in the heat and it will take something out if him. He is destined to do what Tim did for him in Tokyo and take the race out hard enough to guarantee himself a silver or bronze. A race slower than 3:31/2 is a massive risk to his chances of being top 3. He knows he can't do that. The only question is whether he will really go for a 3:26 on his own.

Troll, why don´t you start a "Jakob has peaked" thread? It would be the first one in 2024 (but possibly not the last one).

You might even be lucky and have prize as the number 50 opener in the row. As you possibly know this kind of thread started many years ago when Jakob was a teenager.

By the way: You possibly assume that your favorites Kerr and even Wightman will see some significant improvements before Paris at the ages of 26 and 29 respectively. How do I know? Because you postulate Jakob must run 3:26 to beat them.

You are in good company: The all time star predictor Armstrong makes similat claims: No way 23 years old Jakob will improve furthermore but regarding Kerr and Wightman - Only the sky is the limit!

Mind gamez wrote:

You all must take into account racing is mainly a psychological test. Kerr wasn’t expected to win(underdog) in 2023. He sat back, made a move to the front, then with 200-220m to go surged to the lead and never looked back.
Kerr is clearly not the underdog anymore. He knows he can win so there’s an expectation of himself to do so, he feels there still “something to prove”. And this dictated his tactics at Pre. He raced differently taking the lead way earlier and pushed all the way to the line. This worked because he is super fit. The fittest guy wins most of the time right?(think lagat at USA championships, didn’t matter how the race played out)
The fittest athlete eventually takes the lead. But if Kerr and Ingebrigtsen are both super fit, who wins? I think psychology will come into play big time. Kerr still feels there’s something to prove, if I’m Jakob I let him push that pace from 600m out or whatever and I sit on him, a role reversal from 2023. However, Jakub needs to be CLOSE enough to make that potent move at 250 and take the lead from Kerr and never look back. Jakub comes off as a stubborn person so he may just feel his old way is the right way but then it puts the pressure back on him.
if he can get past his ego, and say ok Kerr you’re better then prove it. He would sit on Kerr and put that pressure on him. I know that athletes evolve and change but I remember Kerr in the NCAA was very good kicker but inconsistent in fast races, or when the pressure was put on him there were better chances of him cracking. Jakub definitely needs to get sharper in the coming weeks, I believe he is racing soon so we should see how he is rounding into form.

Armstronglivs wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

Troll, why don´t you start a "Jakob has peaked" thread? It would be the first one in 2024 (but possibly not the last one).

You might even be lucky and have prize as the number 50 opener in the row. As you possibly know this kind of thread started many years ago when Jakob was a teenager.

By the way: You possibly assume that your favorites Kerr and even Wightman will see some significant improvements before Paris at the ages of 26 and 29 respectively. How do I know? Because you postulate Jakob must run 3:26 to beat them.

You are in good company: The all time star predictor Armstrong makes similat claims: No way 23 years old Jakob will improve furthermore but regarding Kerr and Wightman - Only the sky is the limit!

I didn't say that. It isn't a given that Jakob will improve coming off injury. He may have reached his peak. It can't be assumed that Kerr and Wightman won't continue to improve, as each have shown those improvements - particularly Kerr. You don't live up to your username.

Trollminator wrote:

Mind gamez wrote:

You all must take into account racing is mainly a psychological test. Kerr wasn’t expected to win(underdog) in 2023. He sat back, made a move to the front, then with 200-220m to go surged to the lead and never looked back.
Kerr is clearly not the underdog anymore. He knows he can win so there’s an expectation of himself to do so, he feels there still “something to prove”. And this dictated his tactics at Pre. He raced differently taking the lead way earlier and pushed all the way to the line. This worked because he is super fit. The fittest guy wins most of the time right?(think lagat at USA championships, didn’t matter how the race played out)
The fittest athlete eventually takes the lead. But if Kerr and Ingebrigtsen are both super fit, who wins? I think psychology will come into play big time. Kerr still feels there’s something to prove, if I’m Jakob I let him push that pace from 600m out or whatever and I sit on him, a role reversal from 2023. However, Jakub needs to be CLOSE enough to make that potent move at 250 and take the lead from Kerr and never look back. Jakub comes off as a stubborn person so he may just feel his old way is the right way but then it puts the pressure back on him.
if he can get past his ego, and say ok Kerr you’re better then prove it. He would sit on Kerr and put that pressure on him. I know that athletes evolve and change but I remember Kerr in the NCAA was very good kicker but inconsistent in fast races, or when the pressure was put on him there were better chances of him cracking. Jakub definitely needs to get sharper in the coming weeks, I believe he is racing soon so we should see how he is rounding into form.

This has generally been the case:

Jakob doesn't have the fastest kick, so needs the pace to be fast.

The field knows this, so they rightfully predict he will need to lead to make if fast.

If the pace is slow (i.e. if he doesn't lead) he risks not winning a medal.

Jakob is not going to take that risk.

The field can't run the 1500 as fast as Jakob, but they can kick well so they prefer a slow pace.

Jakob knows this, so he must go to the front to set a fast pace.

If the pace is fast, the field can't save their legs for the kick and it's much harder for them to beat Jakob.

The field is not going to make it a fast race.

Now enter Josh 2.0 - right now he is faster than Jakob AND he has a superior kick. This means he should be able to cover ANY move and beat Jakob. Jakob is better than the field, so Josh is also better than the field.

So off a fast pace, it's Josh > Jakob > field.

Off a slow pace, it's Josh > field (some not all) > Jakob.

Given that Jakob needs to medal, he will make it a fast race. No other runner has the same incentive to do that. They will wait for him to take the lead. They will sit on him. They will try to outkick him.

If Jakob takes a massive risk of not leading, Kerr is the next runner with most incentive to make it fast to secure a medal. So in that case, he may WANT to take the lead. He will not take the lead until at least 600 though, no matter what unless he is a damn fool (I believe he is not).

It's not hard to see why Kerr is a strong favorite.

So how can Jakob win? 2 ways:

1) He becomes faster than Josh and solos a 3:26. That way Josh and the field's kick likely don't matter. I'd be ready to throw him in the GOAT discussion if he could pull that off.

2) Josh and field tire themselves out fighting for position and don't have enough left for a superior kick. Jakob would need to run a clean race and a lot of luck for that to happen.

Mind gamez wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

This has generally been the case:

Jakob doesn't have the fastest kick, so needs the pace to be fast.

The field knows this, so they rightfully predict he will need to lead to make if fast.

If the pace is slow (i.e. if he doesn't lead) he risks not winning a medal.

Jakob is not going to take that risk.

The field can't run the 1500 as fast as Jakob, but they can kick well so they prefer a slow pace.

Jakob knows this, so he must go to the front to set a fast pace.

If the pace is fast, the field can't save their legs for the kick and it's much harder for them to beat Jakob.

The field is not going to make it a fast race.

Now enter Josh 2.0 - right now he is faster than Jakob AND he has a superior kick. This means he should be able to cover ANY move and beat Jakob. Jakob is better than the field, so Josh is also better than the field.

So off a fast pace, it's Josh > Jakob > field.

Off a slow pace, it's Josh > field (some not all) > Jakob.

Given that Jakob needs to medal, he will make it a fast race. No other runner has the same incentive to do that. They will wait for him to take the lead. They will sit on him. They will try to outkick him.

If Jakob takes a massive risk of not leading, Kerr is the next runner with most incentive to make it fast to secure a medal. So in that case, he may WANT to take the lead. He will not take the lead until at least 600 though, no matter what unless he is a damn fool (I believe he is not).

It's not hard to see why Kerr is a strong favorite.

So how can Jakob win? 2 ways:

1) He becomes faster than Josh and solos a 3:26. That way Josh and the field's kick likely don't matter. I'd be ready to throw him in the GOAT discussion if he could pull that off.

2) Josh and field tire themselves out fighting for position and don't have enough left for a superior kick. Jakob would need to run a clean race and a lot of luck for that to happen.

Those are great points and I mostly agree, I do think Jakub has a little bit more tools in the toolbox than JUST leading wire to wire, but the part about fitness being a factor between Jakub and Josh is very true. Typically the fittest guy has the best chance to win. However, I do believe leading or pushing the first 400m of the race isn’t necessary for Jakub to do. I think we are far out of the Centro era of going out in 63, the runners now are conditioned to start at least in the 57/58 range. I think from there Jakub needs to assume the lead as the pace can slow between 600-1000m if no one is pushing the pace up front then it becomes a barn burner. He will need a sub 1:50 maybe even sub 1:49 to assure his victory. If he can take the lead with 1100-1000m to go and gradually ratchet down the pace then cover the the last 800m in 1:48(55/53) I believe Jakub could win. But again I believe we need to see Jakub race again.