Oslo 5k being paced at sub 12:30

You can get really good pacers if you shell out enough money to make it worth their while. For sub-12:30, you need really good pacers and right now when you have random Americans breaking 13, you might be able to get a 7:28 guy to do it.

We'll see. Unless you're talking about an American already in Europe, you're talking about paying them after airfare, somewhere to stay, coordinating a Gold/DL race or two for them to race in (to make this travel worth it), and whatever money we're talking about (which may be substantial to an African runner, but not an American). Not sure who you get in that ballpark.

He shows he's a class above them - in a slow championship race. Beating 12:35-12:40 guys easily in a championship race that he wins in a time of 13:10 doesn't mean he would be a class above them in a time trial, run at 60.5 seconds per lap or faster.

And the 'sickness' was just an excuse for him losing the 1500. I will cheer when he runs poorly at the olympics and then claims it was because he was sick and injured.

Kejelcha ended last year on a high note, racing Jakob to the wire in the DL final over 3000. I'd love to see him keep it up.

His 7:54 showed he could definitely take a crack at the 5k WR.

I can't imagine why the favorites would want to go with a sub-12:30 pace and potentially fry themselves for Paris. If the pacer goes out that fast, he is going to be running a workout all by himself. I expect the top runners to use this race to work on their tactics... not to set pointless PRs. But if it gets tactical, perhaps a Brian Komen type can steal the win!

Do you know what Kerr's race schedule looks like this summer?

If Jakob runs the 5k it will be a decent pace. This is practice for Paris. Go out really hard, get rid on the kickers' last man standing wins..

If you go to their world athletics profile you can see head to heads, but only over 1 distance at a time.

The name to watch, as always, is Hagos Gebrhiwet. He's been waiting to uncork a 12:25 for the past 14 years.

Probably a dumb question but does Jakob still need a 5k qualifier for Paris? If so, which meet do we think he targets? Euros maybe?

I really want to see Jakob take a crack at a fast 5000m soon, I think he has to since he doesn’t have the standard yet for this year. We haven’t seen him really go for a fast time in the 5000m since June 2021 when he ran 12:48.45 in Florence and won, beating Gebrhiwet, Cheptegei, Ahmed, and many other fast guys.

Put another way, 12:30/5k = 3 x 4:00/1600 + 30 sec.

Which is to say, a 12:30/5k is back-to-back-to-back 4:01 miles + 27 sec for the final 172 meters.

Who in this field is capable of going through 2 miles in 8:02, then running another mile in 4:01, then finishing off the final bit in 27 secs?

Simply, no one.

There were multiple super-fast 5ks last year -- using super spikes, pacing lights, etc. -- and no one broke 12:40.

Now, it's these same guys running it back, this time in an early season race.

Improbable, to say the least.

Agree with posters above that Jakob is the most likely candidate to set the record -- but probably will have to wait until 2026 when there is no WC/Oly Games for him to turn his focus to a 5k WR attempt.

Cheptegei's 12:35 WR probably can be broken but likely by only a couple seconds, possibly even just by a few tenths of a second.

But 12:30?

Barring someone who tries to get away with genetically engineering himself -- already banned by WADA since 2003 -- a 12:30/5k simply appears to be beyond human capabilities, at least as humans exist today.

Surely the two time defending world champion in the event would get in on ranking?

Did you watch the races in their entirety? If you did, you'd have seen that those guys ran low 12:40s with uneven pacing, huge negative splits in the last few laps and with a lack of drafting off of that. I'm not saying any of them can break 12:30, but to break the WR of 12:35 is far from outlandish if everyone shows up in the same shape as last year.

Nope, last year Kiplimo and Kejelcha closed in 4:54 off of 7:47 for 12:41s.

The best way to tackle something extremely fast would be to try to hit 3k in 7:35ish. Mind you, I don’t think sub-12:30 is happening, but if multiple guys got to 3k in 7:35 in good weather then the WR would very much be in play. I don’t think it’s impossible to find pacers to make it to 3k in 7:35 if the organizers are willing to pay, which they may be if an athlete is telling them they’re targeting the WR. You get someone to take the first 1600 in 4:02/4:03 and pay a legit elite guy to take it up after that, with wavelight making it easier than it was previously.

Both Bekele and Cheptegei had no pacers after about halfway during their records, and in the spirit of apples to apples, I don’t see the need for a super rabbit.

They don't need to. I don't think I've ever seen a men's distance world record paced to 80% of the total distance.

Most don't even make it to 60%, and yet world records still get set.

If one of them was in ridiculous shape, and didn't have all the others in the race, then they'd probably stand a good shot of getting it if the pacer could make it to half way.

However, with the presence of all the other guys, you'll get a heap of foxing, and no one will want to take the lead when the pacer drops out. No one wants to bust their arse, only for some other guy to kick past them on the last lap and take the world record.

I would agree except Aregawi has shown himself willing to lead others to glory many times over. Not the best racer, but fit and has guts.