Great run from Teare. Unfortunately he's going for spots on some of the most difficult teams in a few months. If Nuguse and Hocker are 100%, they have the first two spots locked away. Then you have Kessler who Teare is now faster than on paper but I'd have to imagine Kessler is ready to brush up against 3:30 this year and he has better basic leg speed than Teare. Then you have the various college kids coming up who will have plenty of racing experience by the trials and some of them will be really coming into form with some momentum (I'd give Nathan Green the best chance of coming up).
The 5k team will probably be a little easier but there are still a bunch of guys hanging around who could make it tough for Teare. Fisher should be clear and then it's a question of who's doing the double with the 10k. I have to think Nico will be going for both and Kincaid could as well. Same with Klecker, maybe Chelimo, and probably another crop of good guys I'm forgetting off the top of my head. I'm rooting for Cooper as someone who was coaching in CA D5 when he was the big fish in our small pond but it ain't gonna be easy!
You mean like when he won NCAA's and the Olympic trials in 3:35 with 52 second last laps? Or maybe you mean when he ran/kicked off of 3:34 and 3:35 in the heat/semis at worlds last year to qualify for the final (where he ran 3:30 for 6th)? He even made that team with another tactical 3:35 race at USA's. Not sure what 3:37s you're referring to...you gotta watch more track buddy, you're just here making stuff up haha
You mean like when he won NCAA's and the Olympic trials in 3:35 with 52 second last laps? Or maybe you mean when he ran/kicked off of 3:34 and 3:35 in the heat/semis at worlds last year to qualify for the final (where he ran 3:30 for 6th)? He even made that team with another tactical 3:35 race at USA's. Not sure what 3:37s you're referring to...you gotta watch more track buddy, you're just here making stuff up haha
Also Hocker is a great tactician. Not only does he have phenomenal gear shifting in the final stages of the race (not only great kicking speed but he's able to ramp it up well), but he's also very calm in a pack. Last trials he was in some cramped spots but never panicked and still had that kick. I think part of being a good tactical runner is this relaxation in tough spots because sometimes you can't realistically avoid being boxed or buried behind people but a good tactical racer doesn't panic and understands what they need to do to get out of those situations without sacrificing their move for the end of the race. Hocker does this very well.
You can’t pick and choose which races you get to analyze. Same race plan in Tokyo as in Budapest- boxed and in the back. If you’re relying on passing on the inside over and over, that’s just not going to consistently work. Hocker has wheels, and it’s a shame he doesn’t seem to put himself in contention to podium when he clearly can.
Look at the 2020 Olympic Trials. I mean, if you think that was being a tactical master, then it’s probably just best to end the discussion. He only gets away with poor tactics there because he’s running against Americans.
Re '20 Olympic Trials... I don't know, what is your issue with that? Keep in mind that we (and presumably Hocker himself) didn't know exactly how good Hocker was. It's not like he can just boss this race from the front and not worry about the energy he expends to get there.
This race is a good example of exactly what I said above: Hocker has a knack for tucking in on the rail, running the shortest distance and conserving energy, and then finding a hole to unleash a kick. I assume you think that he got "lucky" to find that gap at the end, but I'd have two points to counter that: 1) he could have gone earlier if he wanted to; on the backstretch he could easily have gone around guys without moving outside of lane 2, but he waited, presumably because he thought he'd have to time it perfectly to win, and 2) like I said above, Hocker probably thought he needed to run a very, very good race to win or even qualify. To run a great race you sometimes need to take tactical "risks" (e.g. the risk of getting boxed in), because to have no risk in that department you probably need to run wide somewhere a couple times and waste energy. Again, if you are the class of the field you can do this, but otherwise you can't.
Also Hocker doesn't waste energy on the rail often, I really don't know what you are referring to with the comment about him running up into people and having to back off. If you want to see someone waste energy trying to get in position look at Nordas at World Indoors this year; I've never seen Hocker do anything resembling that.
edit: ok I went back and actually watched the full race (not just last 500m) and Hocker does try to move up a couple times and get bumped back. Still, he's not wasting much energy here – it's not like he made big move / burned a match – especially compared to the rest of the field (half of which is in lane 2 for a lot of the race).
“I really don't know what you are referring to with the comment about him running up into people and having to back off.”
Watch it again, and pay special attention to around 900m, I think it was.
Honestly, we’re going in circles now- I’m not going to convince you of my opinion, and you’re certainly not going to win me over to yours. It’s kind of a waste of our time. I think we both want Hocker to achieve his maximum- I’ll leave the conversation with that.
By a "factor" he'll be in fifth or sixth. He needs to move up to the 5k, where he was in college where he won his NCAA title. His US title in the abnormally weak field has given him false hope. With 3:32 speed he can be a factor to medal in the 5k at the olympics.
He ran 3:50i with a huge negative split and won the national title in a slow time off a big kick (which is what everyone said he lacked prior to that race).
Yeah 3:50.1 with big negative split certainly could have run 3:49 that day.
this race converts to a 349 flat.
So we're super excited that he is back to his form in college from 2+ years ago?
Exactly. Watching Cooper race last year at USAs showed that he lacks all kind of experience. Maybe being more confident in his fitness or current results gives him more matches to play with. Or perhaps, being away from Bowerman, has allowed him to race more. How he can read the race around him in June will determine more than a good result in April.
Not a single White American has ever broken 3:30, while the English (Coe, Cram, etc) have been doing that since 1985. The 1500 has always been a weak American event. Conversely, no White British runner has ever broken 13 minutes outdoors for the 5000 meters. Bob Kennedy first did that for the U.S. about 1996, followed by many others. Can't explain either.
Haven’t Marc Scott and George Mills both broken 13 minutes? Are they not both white and British?
edit: somehow I glossed over the word “outdoors” in the OP. Still, it seems weird to ignore indoor times.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Clarification
Don't think any kind of conclusion can be drawn from his time. (It was a time trial, not a race.) He ran about .6 seconds slower last season and didn't make it out of the heats at nationals. If he won a race against good competition with a great burst at exactly the right time, that would be more telling. It seems his heart is set on the 1500, but an athlete only gets so many Olympic chances in their career. He will turn 25 this summer. In four years he will be out of his middle distance prime and maybe out of his prime as a distance runner, period. I wish him luck but I really think his better chance a making the Olympic team is in the 5,000. There's no margin for error running the 1,500 in a tactical race, which the Trials will be. Regardless how well Teare runs, unless one gets injured the top two spots are likely Nuguse and Hocker. That leaves only one spot up for grabs for Teare against Kessler, et al.
Exactly. Watching Cooper race last year at USAs showed that he lacks all kind of experience. Maybe being more confident in his fitness or current results gives him more matches to play with. Or perhaps, being away from Bowerman, has allowed him to race more. How he can read the race around him in June will determine more than a good result in April.
In 2022, when he was with Ben Thomas, people were complaining massively that both of them were doing time trials and barely racing.
But he's now out of the "evil" Jerry, everything Cooper do is all right now.
Some of those 1500m guys from the 90’s and 2000’s were jacked af’, but then you can get thinner guys that can perform just as well with the same power and speed.
Thanks for sharing that list of sub-3:33 runners. It is impressive how old some of those times are.
BTW, I think that list is cool because it shows you that a lot of different body types and phenotypes can be successful at the 1500. I think this applies to the 800 as well.
Shorter distances tend to be dominated by the West African genetics, and the longer distances are dominated by East Africans, but the "weirdness" of the 800-1500 makes for some interesting bedfellows. All the different people who have been our "best" over the years. It is like a United Nations of diverse origins and body types.
I think you're probably putting too much stock in 'genetics'. Lots of examples of 'non' East Africans doing well in the long distances... best 5,000m in the world right now is Jakob.
It's it because he's a rare Norwegian that has some genetic anomaly that makes his genetics more similar to an East African's genetics?
No, it's because of the training regimen from a young age, nutrition, discipline, the system/environment he was brought up in (for better or worse), and who knows - maybe some PEDs as well (which would not be unique to Jakob & bros).
There just aren't too many Jakobs out there because in the Western world, there's a massive economic disincentive to dedicate your life to distance running like Jakob has. For example, most message board posters with 'real jobs' (like myself) probably make more money than even the top paid pros who then have to retire at age 40).
In contrast, East Africans have a massive economic incentive to dedicate their lives to distance running. A $300k payday sets a Kenyan up for life. $300k sets an American up for getting a $75k/year job as a real estate agent after quitting running.
Plus, there's the EPO that's imported to East Africa by the Europeans.
Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying that genetics doesn't play a role... just not as big as some people make it out to be.
Thanks for sharing that list of sub-3:33 runners. It is impressive how old some of those times are.
BTW, I think that list is cool because it shows you that a lot of different body types and phenotypes can be successful at the 1500. I think this applies to the 800 as well.
Shorter distances tend to be dominated by the West African genetics, and the longer distances are dominated by East Africans, but the "weirdness" of the 800-1500 makes for some interesting bedfellows. All the different people who have been our "best" over the years. It is like a United Nations of diverse origins and body types.
I think you're probably putting too much stock in 'genetics'. Lots of examples of 'non' East Africans doing well in the long distances... best 5,000m in the world right now is Jakob.
It's it because he's a rare Norwegian that has some genetic anomaly that makes his genetics more similar to an East African's genetics?
No, it's because of the training regimen from a young age, nutrition, discipline, the system/environment he was brought up in (for better or worse), and who knows - maybe some PEDs as well (which would not be unique to Jakob & bros).
There just aren't too many Jakobs out there because in the Western world, there's a massive economic disincentive to dedicate your life to distance running like Jakob has. For example, most message board posters with 'real jobs' (like myself) probably make more money than even the top paid pros who then have to retire at age 40).
In contrast, East Africans have a massive economic incentive to dedicate their lives to distance running. A $300k payday sets a Kenyan up for life. $300k sets an American up for getting a $75k/year job as a real estate agent after quitting running.
Plus, there's the EPO that's imported to East Africa by the Europeans.
Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying that genetics doesn't play a role... just not as big as some people make it out to be.
Yeah, there's probably many white Americans who could be successful in the NBA, but they are all doctors and lawyers -- they're not pursuing sports as a career. The white NBA players are predominately international players, not Americans. It's hard to even remember the last white American NBA star.
