So what would we do if Jakob makes it to the moon?
What chances would you give him a) that he makes it to the moon b) that he will break all the world records from 1500m to 10000m within the next two years
What chances would you give him a) that he makes it to the moon b) that he will break all the world records from 1500m to 10000m within the next two years
What chances would you give him a) that he makes it to the moon b) that he will break all the world records from 1500m to 10000m within the next two years
About the same.
The events in question: 1500m, 1 Mile, 3000m, 5000m, 10000m (steeple?)
He already has the 2000m and 2 Miles - I don't think it was meant by the OP that he has to break those two again.
So, what chance do you give him to break any one of the above mentioned?
1500m?
Mile?
3000m?
5000m?
10000m?
And for all of them? 1%? 10%?
Is it a goal of him to get to the moon? If he's not even trying, I would say the chance he "makes" it to the moon are really slim...
There is a serious chance he breaks all of them in the next two years- maybe 0.5%?
That he "makes" it to the moon? Maybe 1/Googol?
0.5% is a "serious chance"? You seriously don't understand what you're saying.
Just a guess. What's your guess, this was the question. 2%? 5%?
But, yes, it's extremely difficult to break the 1500m WR and the 10000m WR within the next two years.
For me, his chance for the 10000m is higher than the one for the 1500m. I think he was close to his max here last year. For the 10000m we just have to wait.
0.5% is a "serious chance"? You seriously don't understand what you're saying.
Just a guess. What's your guess, this was the question. 2%? 5%?
But, yes, it's extremely difficult to break the 1500m WR and the 10000m WR within the next two years.
For me, his chance for the 10000m is higher than the one for the 1500m. I think he was close to his max here last year. For the 10000m we just have to wait.
About as good a chance as him winning the lottery. Or going to the moon.
Just a guess. What's your guess, this was the question. 2%? 5%?
But, yes, it's extremely difficult to break the 1500m WR and the 10000m WR within the next two years.
For me, his chance for the 10000m is higher than the one for the 1500m. I think he was close to his max here last year. For the 10000m we just have to wait.
About as good a chance as him winning the lottery. Or going to the moon.
There is a serious chance he breaks all of them in the next two years- maybe 0.5%?
That he "makes" it to the moon? Maybe 1/Googol?
0.5% is a "serious chance"? You seriously don't understand what you're saying.
Only Nurmi and Iharos have set WRs over 1500m and 10000m. Ingebrigtsen obviously has a chance to break those records. Extremely difficult, but possible. Even more difficult to do it within the next two years.
Which other current runner just has a chance to break those records? I don't see any.
What do you think about a 0.5% (1 in 200) chance? Too high, too low?
The events in question: 1500m, 1 Mile, 3000m, 5000m, 10000m (steeple?)
He already has the 2000m and 2 Miles - I don't think it was meant by the OP that he has to break those two again.
So, what chance do you give him to break any one of the above mentioned?
1500m?
Mile?
3000m?
5000m?
10000m?
And for all of them? 1%? 10%?
Is it a goal of him to get to the moon? If he's not even trying, I would say the chance he "makes" it to the moon are really slim...
As for % chances I never know how to figure those out - general comments on breaking these records though:
1500m - It's just very unlikely because I still don't see the ability to get to 1200 in 2.45.0-2.45.3 and I am pretty sure I don't see a sub 40 second final 300 off 2.46 flat similar to what we saw from Hicham (39.66 off 2.46.34). I do think he can run under 3.27 though but I think it's going to have to come this season or the next and I just wonder how many attempts we see this season alone with success in Paris being the priority.
Mile - Much more likely - he ran under 3.44 in an afternoon meet at the end of the season. Had this race been in either Silesia or even Oslo last season I think that record would be his. But keep in mind that no athlete - even El G, broke 3.44 more than once in his career - it's just not easy no matter how good you are.
3000m - This is the most likely to happen and it was often spoken of as the most mythical track record we may have gone to our graves never seeing broken. But 7.21.5 for the final 3000m after 218m of running (32.6 for that portion) clearly shows his potential is well under 7.20.5 for this distance. Not only that, as he makes a natural progression towards longer events this distance will just fit in perfectly to his strengths and training adjustments.
5000m - Hard to say. I have no doubt he's been a sub 12.45 athlete at least last season and maybe even the season before. But 12.35.36 is incredible and deserves a ton of respect. I don't see him going from 12.48 to 12.35 in a race so I think when we witness him run in the ballpark of 12.40.0 and how he handles this, we will get an idea of the feasibility of this
10000m - No clue. We have only ever seen him run this distance in XC/on the road. Will his career even be long enough to see this transition? He would be the only guy we have ever seen go from being truly world elite over the 1500m/mile to the 10000m and then to expect under 26.11? Tough. Maybe it's more likely than the 1500m simply by proxy that there is the total unknown of his ability over this distance on the track and we have seen quite a lot of his 1500m stuff - but honestly I don't know. Gut feeling is it's also pretty unlikely.
As for going to the moon? Well let's see NASA follow through on their commitment of putting a person of color and woman up there in the year 2026, almost 54 years after they supposedly had their last person up there before we contemplate that one.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
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