Am I Alone In Thinking That Grant Fisher Will Win The 2024 Olympic 10000m?

yes.

Excellent stats from the Elias Sports Bureau of distance running.

Good one.

Probably Grant's best race was his 4th/10k at the Eugene '22 WC.

Rewatch the race below, starting at around 28:00 to catch the last two laps.

Notice that Grant was 5th in a group of 8 at the bell, one place ahead of Kiplimo, lost ground on the backstretch, then sprinted home to catch Barega for 4th and was inching so close to Kiplimo for the bronze.

And, he was not a prisoner of lane 1, moving out to gain position and pass people a couple of times.

Presuming Grant is stronger and faster now, two years later, he simply needs to stay right with the leaders throughout the entire last lap, not allowing any gaps to form, then kick like hell down the homestretch.

Substitute Kejelcha for Worku, the upcoming Paris race may look just like 2022.

Like rojo states above, "the odds are low" for gold. However, given how close everyone is to each other, the odds are low for everyone else as well.

Thus, I would posit that Grant's chances for Gold, Silver, or Bronze are just as good -- or bad -- as everyone else's.

Agree with lots being said in this thread. Chances for medal solid, gold slim. Lots of A studs, so chances someone winding it up the last laps are strong, which plays into his hands.

He was jogging the ten, xept for the last 100. Breathing through his nose all the way.

Warming up the thread ahead of the explosion in 2 weeks.

Dude! I don't think we've conversed since I was.......a 4:30 Miler! 🤷🏼‍♂️

Well I mean there's a guy in there named Joshua Cheptegei. PR of 26:11.00 and won the last 2 WC 10,000's.

Wait.....WHAT??? I NEVER KNEW ABOUT THIS!!! WTF???

(Kidding.)

Fisher would have to be the best runner in the race, to push the pace from that far out. If he isn’t, he won’t medal.

I wouldn't underestimate the victory of Centro, he led from wire-to-wire, and didn't allow anyone pass him. Time isn't his fault of course.

Yes you are. Both if he can be more fluid with his positioning, he can podium in either of his two events.

I don’t know if I think it or hope it, but you’re not alone

Grant takes a lot of criticism and I get it it's tough at the level of competition he is running at, but let's give Grant credit he is always in the mix. He seldom if ever if 5 or 10 seconds back. He is always there in that last lap. I hope it works out for him and he medals this August. He'll of a nice guy and an incredible runner

7:27 is a nice tune-up race for sure. It would be a surprise to see Grant nab the gold. It is certainly not out of the question, of course.

I'm a big fan of his, but don't expect him to win. I'd be curious if Grant thinks he will win. Hopefully, he thinks, at least, that he has a good chance to win (even though I don't think his chances are good - hopefully he'll surprise me).

Based off the fact that only 3 times have been run faster than him since 2006 and 2 just happened at Ethiopian trials, sure he could medal, but that doesn't mean it will happen.

Well, today is the day then.

I don't know. Are you Billy Mills?

latimes.com

Last U.S. Olympic 10,000-meter winner believes Grant Fisher can win the race in Paris

https://www.latimes.com/people/kevin-baxter

Billy Mills, the last American to win the Olympic 10,000 meters in 1964, believes distance star Grant Fisher is capable of winning the race in Paris.

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