I must say I had a dream last night where I was hanging out with Jakob and it softened my opinion of him. I won’t be upset if he wins. He’s just a kid who loves to party and is looking for a bottle of maple syrup.
My first instinct was to go with the very fit Josh Kerr.
Since it will have pacers, I would lean towards Jakob.
I’d be elated to see Nuguse pull it off.
I’d place odds at 45% Jakob, 30% Kerr, 20% Nuguse, 5% the field.
You have Jakob as the favourite, despite him not running for 4months meanwhile Kerr has run a WR and won another World Champs Gold?...
Your odds may be right by the time Paris comes around*, but for this, Kerr has to be favourite still surely
*I'd put it at even for Paris, no matter what he does between now and then, 4months off is a huge time
You have seen Jakob run, right? He could come out of hibernation, yawn, kick over a beehive for honey, and then be the favorite walking to the starting line.
BTW, that was a nice comment you made earlier. I agree totally.
In all seriousness, you may be right. But dang, the talent. He honestly never really looks cut like most of these guys.
I wouldn't pick Kerr over Jakob in an early race like this, but I suspect Jakob won't be ready. People are not giving Kerr enough credit for the kind of shape he's been in. He can hang with a much faster pace now. Nuguse doesn't seem to want it bad enough so I'd say he's going to be happy just running a fast time in May. Kerr is just too smart and fit right now. I can see Jakob going for it, followed by Nuguse and Kerr, with Jakob struggling the last 300 and Kerr sniping Nuguse in the last 100.
You have Jakob as the favourite, despite him not running for 4months meanwhile Kerr has run a WR and won another World Champs Gold?...
Your odds may be right by the time Paris comes around*, but for this, Kerr has to be favourite still surely
*I'd put it at even for Paris, no matter what he does between now and then, 4months off is a huge time
You have seen Jakob run, right? He could come out of hibernation, yawn, kick over a beehive for honey, and then be the favorite walking to the starting line.
BTW, that was a nice comment you made earlier. I agree totally.
In all seriousness, you may be right. But dang, the talent. He honestly never really looks cut like most of these guys.
I'd say you are right for a 5k... barely any margin of error for him in the 1500 these days.
This is an interesting spot for Jakob. I feel like the last few times he raced in sub-optimal shape, he either had a soft field (last year indoors after sickness), or at Monaco in 2021 (where Tim led it out and Katir/Tim beat him). This time, it's a strong field and if he's in less than top shape, Kerr and Nuguse are just gonna go by him.
The pace will be set for whoever asks for the fastest pace, which probably means Jakob @ 1:52 through 800.
My only prediction at this point is that those 3 don’t comprise the top 3.
You're only saying that because it's the day before your birthday. So, not in the top 3? Pray tell who the interloper may be.
There was an anonymous weirdo recently who tried to spook me (I guess?) by actually knowing my birthday, but it’s not in May so is this like a joke? Anyway, singling out the interloper is totally antithetical to the basis of my prediction—that is, that the event is deep and unpredictable (and over 2 months away). Cole Hocker, Hobbs Kessler, George Mills, Jake Wightman, Reynold Cheruiyot, Abel Kipsang, Narve Nordas, Niels Laros: these are all very talented runners, and that’s without naming at least 5 other guys who ran 3:29 last year.
Kerr is based in seattle. there are too many whatever rays etc. around there, Khamis. it is like one of the tech capitols of the world. VERY SCARY.
Pretty sure he lives in Albuquerque
Kerr lives most of the year in Seattle, where Brooks has its world headquarters. There's no way any member of the Beasts gets an exception not to live in Seattle. That said, the team goes to ABQ several times a year for altitude training and rents houses/condos for them to stay at.
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We have enough Youth, What we need is a Fountain of Smart.
I see many calls for Jakob winning. I don't think so. Main reason is the obvious he likely wont be sharp at that point in the season. If he loses, He will simply state that he is targeting his peak for the Olympics. I want to say advantage Kerr, primarily because it's a mind game. Messing with Jakob prior to the Olympics is too enticing. My vote is Kerr, assuming he can stay healthy. Nuguse has shown me that he has the killer instinct or the killer kick to walk down a race of this caliber.
Kerr first, Jakob 3rd, Nuguse 6th. And I have no reason for that order except that's how I see this playing out (It's a guess like everyone else's)
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