I'm highly suspicious of Narve Nordås

Everyone always picks on The Goose, but he set a collegiate record (3:34). I mean, there’s always a chance of doping but he’d be the last one I’d suspect. The guy would be perfectly happy not running and just focusing on dental school. Even though his times are amazing, I just don’t see it… he’s the former ncaa 1500 record holder.

Hocker improved 11 seconds in 1 year with Zero tests,then improvement stops when the AIU start testing him.Not really that hard to figure him out.

What year/event are you trying to claim here?

Also, are you claiming 8:05i this year isn’t an improvement?

this. may also explain some the switch.

Found the Maurten PR guy

So this is a completely rational take to have. Because yeah, a lot of people looked at MK's seismic improvement from 3.36.59 in 2020 to 3.28.76 in 2021 and put Nordas's improvement from 3.36.23 in 2022 to 3.29.47 in 2023 in the exact same ballpark. And on the surface that is completely fair to do, and of course as Katir ultimately was suspended from the sport for breaking the rules it's plausible to suggest so is NN.

But, and there is always a but - how similar is it really?

For me there is one key difference in these progressions at the 1500m distance with these guys and it is volume of races and plateau(ing) of performance because it is where there is considerable difference.

Katir ran 4 1500m races in 2019 - 2 of them appeared to be relatively non competitive (3.50+) the other two were 3.40 and 3.45. He ran 6 races in 2020 - 3 slower "club/championship" races and the other 3 were 3.37.20, 37.61 and 39.25. He ran 5 in 2021 - again 3 slower "club/champ" races and the other 2 were 3.36.59 and 3.37.18. So in summary when we look at his body of work with respect to time-trial style races, this was the combined 3 season progression heading into the drop to 3.28 (across 7 races)

3.45.32, 3.40.84, 3.39.25, 3.37.61, 3.37.20, 3.36.59 and 3.37.18. Katir's placings in these races were 7, 3, 3, 2, 1, 4, 3.

None of this is extraordinary, stands out or appears out of line with a mid to late 3.30 talent runner and the sample size is absolutely there to back that up.

Nordas looks like this. 3 races in 2020 - 3.41.40, 3.41.51, 3.39.15. No 1500m races in 2021 and in 2022 ran 3.36.23 and 3.38.05. In all of these races he won which is a really important footnote.

The differences now become quite clear - right? Even though it is very clear to me what level of 1500m runner Katir was prior to his sub 3.29, I can't say the same about Nordas. I can't say that because when you have a 3 year period where a) there is a season you don't even bother to run a single race over the distance and b) you haven't been beaten over the distance, I don't think it's fair to assume that this event was never the main focus and that you really weren't being tested to a level that exposed your true level of ability. Had Nordas not been winning these races it's a different story. Katirs ability was exposed, otherwise he too would have won all his mid-3.30 level races and then he may simply have been a much better talent than he was incentivized to be.

At least in my opinion we knew who Mo Katir was and what he wasn't - we didn't know who Narve Nordas was and more importantly what he wasn't.

The other thing? The 0.71 seconds between their PR's matters. One is under 3.29.0 and the other isn't. Don't get me wrong, 3.29.47 is an incredible time and incredibly fast. But running in the 3.29's is not the same hallowed territory of 3.28.X - something that only 16 men have ever done. To make the jump into that level of performance is much bigger than the jump into the 3.29's even though numerically those 7/10ths would seem trivial.

Am I saying unequivocally NN is clean? That would silly and we have been let down many times before. But there is simply no way he is as suspicious as Katir was, even if some suspicion is completely fair.

You have someone dropping down in distance and going from an also ran to becoming a global medal threat in a year. There is nothing normal about that. In particular have such success dropping down in distance. If you don’t find that suspicious you either have some preexisting biases or don’t follow the sport at all.

Norway’s dominance in Nordic skiing and triathlon is also highly suspect.

1500 in 2021 ,and no its not too much of an improvement.

He's as obvious as Katir,even share the same hairdresser.

He didn't improve 11s in 2021. He ran 3:58.2 indoors for the mile in February 2020, an equivalent within 11 seconds of his 3:31.40 in 2021, and then this thing you might have heard of called COVID cancelled the 2020 collegiate outdoor season for racing so we don't have a result to compare against in the 1500m.

If you honestly think that 8:05i is "not too much of an improvement" over any past result he's had for 3000m or 2 miles, then I don't think you are an intellectually honest person.

Yes.

Whether he's doping or not I don't know?

He is amongst the smoothest most fluid runners of today.

Yeah. We’re talking about a 10 second improvement in 18 months from age 18 to 20, after his first full year of college training, having run like 45 mpw in high school. Then he missed the better part of a year due to injury, and then lowered his 1500 and mile PRs in 2023–or what should we expect him to be running now, 3:26? It’s almost like claiming I was doping to improve from 5:20 in middle school to 4:30 my sophomore year of high school…well, not really, but that’s as valid a comparison as Hocker’s progression to Katir’s.

Innocent until caught lol

More like Innocent until they fail their 3rd whereabouts and use the excuse the app didn't work right.

That’s actually a fair point, and I’m honestly not sure why I chose those numbers. If you adjusted the scale so that Wightman and Willis are at 3 or 4 and it scales up from there (~5 Nuguse, ~6.5 Nordas, ~8 Katir pre-bust) that’s more in line with my suspicions. And I would never accuse those first 4 of doping, but you can’t say there’s “no chance” given what we know about the sport.

Not saying he's doping because that's a horrible accusation to make based primarily on performance. Running fast is what we strive for and the mid-20s is not an age where people can't make a significant improvement. With all of that said, there are a few red flags. Narve, didn't go from 3:42 to 3:35, we've seen that happen with NCAA athletes on a few occasions. He went from being an athlete that was already running decently fast, especially by European standards, to becoming one of the best in the world. Running 3:36 means you are training hard, getting good coaching, nutrition etc. Something quite significant with an athlete would have to change in order to make that kind of improvement when you are already running decently fast. Also, Narve comes from a country quite knowledgeable about the art and science of doping.

I think you’ll find Houlihan is the comp, not Katir for Nordas. Someone who looked like they were hitting their ceiling as a reasonably good but fringe world finalist 5k runner, but then suddenly running huge times at 1500. The Nordas defense has to include him being a weird weird dude. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of any athlete who wrote themselves off as a “slow guy” who should be running the half marathon at age 18. Note he ran 8:23 for 3k indoors and 14:23 outdoors that year showing he definitely was pretty good on the track. Then he runs a dreadful 68’ HM. He continues running halves for multiple years! Despite improving results from 3k-10k, he still has this odd misconception about his own talents. He shows even more promise in the 1500 and 3000 in later years and still thinks he’s a 10K guy who is stretched at 5k it seems.

So he’s just a bizarre character, I don’t really think you can find any comparable with the “finding event” thing…it’d be like if next year Drew Bosley started crushing 3:29 1500s, and was like oh well I think I found my event.

Still need to be talented to reach the top even when doping.

Only in Murica is this guy not white.

I don't think it's a "finding event" thing - he does have a history of 1500m running (albeit not a deep one) so he didn't just "come across" the event. What he didn't have was a history of in that event was a) clearly committing to running it a lot (5 races in 3 years?) or being pushed when he did (he won every single one of those races). My point is that in 2022 for example when he ran 3.36.2 and 3.38.0 and crossed the line first both times, we don't really know if that was him absolutely tapping out his potential. We know he certainly did in 2023 because he ran 3.29.4 and finished 8th - if he had more potential he might have finished second in 3.28.7 or so. So is it possible that he was really more of a 3.32/33 guy in 2022? Yeah it is. It's entirely possible and then does 3.29 seem overly suspicious? Given the current state of the sport absolutely not.

With Katir we know it's not the case. When he ran his 3.36.59 the season before getting in the 28's he finished 4th in that race where the 3 guys ahead of him ran 3.33, 3.34 and 3.35. So if he was better than 3.36 he sure as hell had a great chance to show it but he couldn't because he was a 3.36 guy nothing more, nothing less.

And back to the thread this isn't about exculpatory circumstantial evidence with respect to NN - he could running on rocket fuel for all I know. But I do know his 3.29 was and is light years more plausible than Katirs 3.28