And? June is far away and there will be strategy involved. Not a time trial
Have you ever seen PV race? She is running a time trial. The people behind her have some strategic choices. Stay with the sort of hard pace and kick or run fast. I am guessing everyone picks the first option til the last k
In national championships or Olympics the winner is the best strategist, not necessarily the runner with the best PB. Thats what “not so fast” is saying and its a fact
Valby: Her 5k pace is faster than her mile PR. She can possibly hang with the pros to 4500m but when everyone switches gears, she will have to show she can go much faster. Plus she’s got no experience running a prelim and final.
She is a long shot, at best, for Paris right now. She should be racing 1500/3000 in the NCAA to prepare her body to run faster and hone that top end speed to beat the pros.
Not a fact. 129 Americans broke 16 last year but amazingly, the fastest ended up doing very well at the US Championships. Tuohy is the best tactician but she didn't qualify becuase she isn't fast enough.
Andrews ran 14:46 in the same race that Wayment ran her 14:49.
And? June is far away and there will be strategy involved. Not a time trial
I agree with your point but I was answering "notrunningrelated" who stated that Andrews hadn't run a qualifying time. Below is notrunningrelated's post which is the post just prior to mine that you quoted. The only reason that I pointed out Wayment & Andrews in the same post is because both of them ran those times in Boston a few weekends ago.
"For those who say it’s impossible for her to qualify, only 4 runners are ahead of her within the qual period:
14:19 Monsoon (jul of 23) 14:47 Henes (jul of 23) 14:49 Waymont (Jan of 24) 14:52 Cranny (jul of 23)
Thats it! All the others are outside, including Andrews, Infeld, Rogers, and even Kelati. explain why it’s impossible for Valby to make Paris?"
Valby will win NCAAs, podium at US Trials, and perform heroically against the international competition in Paris.
Downvote if you're triggered by this statement, you know it is true.
Valby has never run against any internationally competitive runners. She's never competed at a US Champs, and rarely races on the track where she has competition other than being forced to race Tuohy at regionals or if she shows up at NCAAs. She's a hugely unproven commodity in the track world.
"hugely" unproven seems a bit exaggerated? If an american woman runs well under 15 indoors she is not hugely unproven. She is officially part of the discussion...as we can read.
Valby has a great future but I give Monson, Cranny, Kelati, Henes (if she doesn't go all in on the 10), Andrews, and Rogers all a better chance to make the team. Infeld and Schweizer, if she's healthy, may also be in the mix.
Valby is great and I want to see her do well but making the team is not going to be as easy as some of her fans make it seem. Valby's durability is something that is a consideration as well.
Some of Valby's fans get tunnel vision and don't seem to be that knowledgable about the sport. Either that of they're really bad trolls.
Oh you’re so knowledgeable, we’re so honored you joined the thread. You pretend that there’s a chasm in their times. You ValbyHaterBoys can’t stand that she MIGHT just beat one or more of the above runners you mention.
Btw, you didn’t answer coffeeclubfangirl question. I might not be knowledgeable but I was the only poster who gave a reason why Valby has not runned 2024 indoor season. Don’t gaslight Valby fans.
How is someone that states "Valby has a great future" and "Valby is great and I want to see her do well" a ValbyHaterBoy?
"They think it will be easy" is just being a realist. It is not a given that Valby WILL make the team, as some of you seem to think. Does she have a chance? Sure she does but so do others. Some of you think that unless someone states "Valby will run in Paris," that the person is a "hater."
Get over yourselves. Valby has a bright future and will do well as a professional. If she doesn't, for whatever reason, make the Paris team, it's not like she's a failure.
I know that this is a Parker Valby thread so sorry for the drift, but does anyone know how Schweizer is doing? She had injury issues last season and IIRC, had some sort of ortho surgery. She's been relatively quiet.
I know that this is a Parker Valby thread so sorry for the drift, but does anyone know how Schweizer is doing? She had injury issues last season and IIRC, had some sort of ortho surgery. She's been relatively quiet.
Back training, I wouldn't expect to see her race inside. She'll probably chase a time later in the spring for the 5000m. The big question is if she is ready to chase the standard at the Ten or where else she might go for a qualifier?
Valby: Her 5k pace is faster than her mile PR. She can possibly hang with the pros to 4500m but when everyone switches gears, she will have to show she can go much faster. Plus she’s got no experience running a prelim and final.
She is a long shot, at best, for Paris right now. She should be racing 1500/3000 in the NCAA to prepare her body to run faster and hone that top end speed to beat the pros.
ESP won't be running the 5k... I don't see why Valby couldn't run at least 4:27-4:29 given her 5k PR. Schweizer ran 4:27/8:41 in college. Markezich just ran 4:27. And Valby's mile PR is 2 years old. She is an endurance based runner, as is Monson. Look at Nico Young as well.
You don't need closing speed like Cranny to podium if the pace is fast enough.
Have you ever seen PV race? She is running a time trial. The people behind her have some strategic choices. Stay with the sort of hard pace and kick or run fast. I am guessing everyone picks the first option til the last k
In national championships or Olympics the winner is the best strategist, not necessarily the runner with the best PB. Thats what “not so fast” is saying and its a fact
Sure and as I said it doesn’t help PV. The only strategy she has shown for 3 years now is to time trial and hope she is the fittest. In a strategic race, she is the rabbit.
I agree she’s not a lock to make the team, but I think she has a chance. How many people would have predicted Nico would beat Nur and Kincaid while running faster on the same track on the same day than Nuguse and Klecker?
Valby definitely has a chance. The 3rd (and possibly 2nd) slot is wide open with some runners opting for 10k and others injured or with similar PRs. She just ran 14:56? Plenty of time to improve on that, and she closed that race very well. She will either sit on the leader (Monson) or take the lead and push the pace if Monson is in the 10k, for example.
If Valby tries to cover a surge by a 14:19 runner, she will pay a huge price at the end of the race and she’s not going to gap runners with better PRs by pushing the pace. She’s just isn’t ready to make an Olympic team.
Valby: Her 5k pace is faster than her mile PR. She can possibly hang with the pros to 4500m but when everyone switches gears, she will have to show she can go much faster. Plus she’s got no experience running a prelim and final.
She is a long shot, at best, for Paris right now. She should be racing 1500/3000 in the NCAA to prepare her body to run faster and hone that top end speed to beat the pros.
ESP won't be running the 5k... I don't see why Valby couldn't run at least 4:27-4:29 given her 5k PR. Schweizer ran 4:27/8:41 in college. Markezich just ran 4:27. And Valby's mile PR is 2 years old. She is an endurance based runner, as is Monson. Look at Nico Young as well.
You don't need closing speed like Cranny to podium if the pace is fast enough.
St. Pierre ran the 5000m in 2022, her last outdoor championship, made the world team in 2019. I haven't seen anything from her saying she won't double or is exclusively focused on the 1500m. If past performance is an indicator, St. Pierre is more likely to actually race the 5000m than Valby because Valby has never competed at a national championship.
Every single woman listed above has a faster PR than Valby in the 5000m and most of them have raced 1500 and/or miles against pros because you do need that speed to compete internationally. Valby has not demonstrated she can hold off a top tier pro and is a long shot to make the Olympic team.
St. Pierre ran the 5000m in 2022, her last outdoor championship, made the world team in 2019. I haven't seen anything from her saying she won't double or is exclusively focused on the 1500m. If past performance is an indicator, St. Pierre is more likely to actually race the 5000m than Valby because Valby has never competed at a national championship.
Every single woman listed above has a faster PR than Valby in the 5000m and most of them have raced 1500 and/or miles against pros because you do need that speed to compete internationally. Valby has not demonstrated she can hold off a top tier pro and is a long shot to make the Olympic team.
At the 2023 Usatf meet, N Rogers was 3rd in 14:55 and speed burner J Andrews was 4th in 15:01. Andrews closing speed was completely negated, as she couldn't hold the race pace on that day to stick around for a kick.
If the 2024 plays out in a similar way, of course runners like Valby, Henes, Touhy and Kelati have a chance for success similar like Rogers.
If it goes out slow, with winning time 15:50 and a 4:29 last mile, that will of course favor the kickers.
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