27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Kiptum is an outlier. An endurance freak.
He's not as fast as a lot of people claim him to be.
You can tell by his running form during the last 10k of his marathons.
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Kiptum is an outlier. An endurance freak.
He's not as fast as a lot of people claim him to be.
You can tell by his running form during the last 10k of his marathons.
Countless “endurance freaks”like Shorter, Rodger’s and Salazar were around 25 seconds. Bekele managed 24 and Lopes 21.
An equivalent outlier to 14 seconds would be a pitcher that can throw a fastball 110 mph.
How did his form look when he ran 13:51 from 35 to 40K?
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Kiptum is an outlier. An endurance freak.
He's not as fast as a lot of people claim him to be.
You can tell by his running form during the last 10k of his marathons.
You see him work really hard during the last 10k. But then again he is running really really fast.
How you can draw conclusions from his running style during the last 10k is beyond me.
Taking the ratio of men's world records, we have approximately:
5 seconds in a 10k <-> 23 seconds in a marathon
Or if you prefer,
1 minute in a 10k <-> 4:36 in a marathon
In other words, all else equal we would two runners who are 5 seconds apart in a 10k to be 23 seconds apart in a marathon. Of course, all else is not equal, but this isn't a terrible way to compare runners who prioritize the same event (i.e. Kiptum with other marathoners).
By this, we would expect Kiptum's 10k time to be:
10 seconds faster than a 2:01:21 guy 20 seconds faster than a 2:02:07 guy 30 seconds faster than a 2:02:53 guy 40 seconds faster than a 2:03:39 guy 50 seconds faster than a 2:04:25 guy
1 minute faster than a 2:05:11 guy 2 minutes faster than a 2:09:47 guy 3 minutes faster than a 2:14:23 guy 4 minutes faster than a 2:18:59 guy
Again, this isn't perfect, and Kiptum is unique by any standard. But there's a tendency to estimate HOW MUCH BETTER Kiptum is than other (non-Kipchoge) marathoners.
My personal intuition is that most 2:05-low guys can almost certainly run 27-low with a few months of specific training [certainly, the marathon time is stronger; I am talking about a marathoner moving down, the way Kiptum would]. Similarly, if you can break 2:10, you can probably break 28, or otherwise come really close. 2:14 guys can run 29-low, and 2:18 guys can run 30-low. On the other end, anyone breaking 2:03 would be well into the 26's. And I don't see any of these are being substantially easier/harder than the others.
All of this corresponds to a 26-low 10k time for a "typical" 2:00:35 guy given a few months specific training. But maybe your intuition is different than mine. Or maybe you believe that Kiptum is so unique that the normal rules don't apply (I am always skeptical of these arguments). Just remember that we're dealing with a guy who wins majors by MULTIPLES MINUTES every time he runs--it wouldn't be surprising if he can drop a massive 10k time as well.
I’m not sure I’d give Jakob 58s. You think Jakob is better in the half than Mo, Haile, Tergat and Kenenisa ever were? Wanjiru was a 58:33 runner.
Unless this is an alternate universe where he has entirely shifted his training that direction. If so, maybe. I still would bet against it. We’re talking about a dude who is probably at his absolute best over 2000-3000m.
I am inclined to agree with you here except for the impact of the shoes. I think if we put Jakob in the shoes from 20 years ago he might not break 59 but in today’s shoes I would concur with JWH that Jakob likely breaks 59. Much of this is speculative because as you both know there is potentially a lot of hyperbole in what Jakob would run for 10000m and above. Just as we really don’t know what Kiptum does at 10000m, except we KNOW that on the roads he can do roughly 28:32 four consecutive times and then do another 1.4 miles at that pace, which tells me he can run much faster than 28:32.
Yeah, exactly. When Wanjiru ran 58:33 it was a 22 second world record - times (literally) have changed. Kiplimo would not be beating Wanjiru by a minute given equal shoes and race conditions. 48 guys have now run 58:59 or faster with 7 under 58. In October 2023 a guy named Hillary Chepkwony ran 58:53 for 6th in Valencia, which put him over a minute behind 4th place. So no, I don’t think it’s a reach at all to expect Jakob could run sub-59.
When did El G easily beat Bekele at 5k? I remember him edging Bekele in epic battles at 5k in 2003 WC and 2004 OG.
Rewatch 2004 I guess. Seemed pretty easy to me — not in much doubt, and he celebrated the last 10-15 meters. That was Bekele at his absolute peak, as well. Jakob chose not to race 2021 Tokyo when Chep was at his peak. Likely would have been a similar race.
in 2003 they both lost to Kipchoge but El G had put Bekele out of race already.
El G finished .29 secs ahead of Bekele in the 2003 WC 5k.
Taking the ratio of men's world records, we have approximately:
5 seconds in a 10k <-> 23 seconds in a marathon
Or if you prefer,
1 minute in a 10k <-> 4:36 in a marathon
In other words, all else equal we would two runners who are 5 seconds apart in a 10k to be 23 seconds apart in a marathon. Of course, all else is not equal, but this isn't a terrible way to compare runners who prioritize the same event (i.e. Kiptum with other marathoners).
By this, we would expect Kiptum's 10k time to be:
10 seconds faster than a 2:01:21 guy 20 seconds faster than a 2:02:07 guy 30 seconds faster than a 2:02:53 guy 40 seconds faster than a 2:03:39 guy 50 seconds faster than a 2:04:25 guy
1 minute faster than a 2:05:11 guy 2 minutes faster than a 2:09:47 guy 3 minutes faster than a 2:14:23 guy 4 minutes faster than a 2:18:59 guy
Again, this isn't perfect, and Kiptum is unique by any standard. But there's a tendency to estimate HOW MUCH BETTER Kiptum is than other (non-Kipchoge) marathoners.
My personal intuition is that most 2:05-low guys can almost certainly run 27-low with a few months of specific training [certainly, the marathon time is stronger; I am talking about a marathoner moving down, the way Kiptum would]. Similarly, if you can break 2:10, you can probably break 28, or otherwise come really close. 2:14 guys can run 29-low, and 2:18 guys can run 30-low. On the other end, anyone breaking 2:03 would be well into the 26's. And I don't see any of these are being substantially easier/harder than the others.
All of this corresponds to a 26-low 10k time for a "typical" 2:00:35 guy given a few months specific training. But maybe your intuition is different than mine. Or maybe you believe that Kiptum is so unique that the normal rules don't apply (I am always skeptical of these arguments). Just remember that we're dealing with a guy who wins majors by MULTIPLES MINUTES every time he runs--it wouldn't be surprising if he can drop a massive 10k time as well.
Why assume the ratio between world records would apply to the respective world record holders? It’s kind of funny you went through all that rigamarole to surmise that Kiptum could run low 26s, when it’s obvious that since Kiptum is the marathon WR holder, that applying the ratio between his marathon time and Cheptegei’s 10k would project a 26:11.00 for Kiptum - you follow?
I think 26:25-26:40 is much more likely than low 26s. That would make it extremely difficult for him to shake Ingebrigtsen before the last 800m, in my view.
Taking the ratio of men's world records, we have approximately:
5 seconds in a 10k <-> 23 seconds in a marathon
Or if you prefer,
1 minute in a 10k <-> 4:36 in a marathon
In other words, all else equal we would two runners who are 5 seconds apart in a 10k to be 23 seconds apart in a marathon. Of course, all else is not equal, but this isn't a terrible way to compare runners who prioritize the same event (i.e. Kiptum with other marathoners).
By this, we would expect Kiptum's 10k time to be:
10 seconds faster than a 2:01:21 guy 20 seconds faster than a 2:02:07 guy 30 seconds faster than a 2:02:53 guy 40 seconds faster than a 2:03:39 guy 50 seconds faster than a 2:04:25 guy
1 minute faster than a 2:05:11 guy 2 minutes faster than a 2:09:47 guy 3 minutes faster than a 2:14:23 guy 4 minutes faster than a 2:18:59 guy
Again, this isn't perfect, and Kiptum is unique by any standard. But there's a tendency to estimate HOW MUCH BETTER Kiptum is than other (non-Kipchoge) marathoners.
My personal intuition is that most 2:05-low guys can almost certainly run 27-low with a few months of specific training [certainly, the marathon time is stronger; I am talking about a marathoner moving down, the way Kiptum would]. Similarly, if you can break 2:10, you can probably break 28, or otherwise come really close. 2:14 guys can run 29-low, and 2:18 guys can run 30-low. On the other end, anyone breaking 2:03 would be well into the 26's. And I don't see any of these are being substantially easier/harder than the others.
All of this corresponds to a 26-low 10k time for a "typical" 2:00:35 guy given a few months specific training. But maybe your intuition is different than mine. Or maybe you believe that Kiptum is so unique that the normal rules don't apply (I am always skeptical of these arguments). Just remember that we're dealing with a guy who wins majors by MULTIPLES MINUTES every time he runs--it wouldn't be surprising if he can drop a massive 10k time as well.
Why assume the ratio between world records would apply to the respective world record holders? It’s kind of funny you went through all that rigamarole to surmise that Kiptum could run low 26s, when it’s obvious that since Kiptum is the marathon WR holder, that applying the ratio between his marathon time and Cheptegei’s 10k would project a 26:11.00 for Kiptum - you follow?
I think 26:25-26:40 is much more likely than low 26s. That would make it extremely difficult for him to shake Ingebrigtsen before the last 800m, in my view.
Yes you look at Wanjiru who ran 26:41 at age 19 and before he had raced a marathon, and then he ran 2:05:10 before super shoes, and I could see Kiptum running that fast if not slightly faster. Kiptum reportedly runs extremely high mileage. It would not surprise me if Kiptum is a 3:35 13:00, 26:40 2:00:35 runner. It is not clear that we will ever find out though. Many posters here make assumptions about Jakob and Kiptum, and the truth is we don’t know, so with educated guesses, we can assume that Jakob would probably defeat Kiptum at 10,000m and that at 10 miles it is anybody’s guess, and I would lean toward Kiptum.
Taking the ratio of men's world records, we have approximately:
5 seconds in a 10k <-> 23 seconds in a marathon
Or if you prefer,
1 minute in a 10k <-> 4:36 in a marathon
In other words, all else equal we would two runners who are 5 seconds apart in a 10k to be 23 seconds apart in a marathon. Of course, all else is not equal, but this isn't a terrible way to compare runners who prioritize the same event (i.e. Kiptum with other marathoners).
By this, we would expect Kiptum's 10k time to be:
10 seconds faster than a 2:01:21 guy 20 seconds faster than a 2:02:07 guy 30 seconds faster than a 2:02:53 guy 40 seconds faster than a 2:03:39 guy 50 seconds faster than a 2:04:25 guy
1 minute faster than a 2:05:11 guy 2 minutes faster than a 2:09:47 guy 3 minutes faster than a 2:14:23 guy 4 minutes faster than a 2:18:59 guy
Again, this isn't perfect, and Kiptum is unique by any standard. But there's a tendency to estimate HOW MUCH BETTER Kiptum is than other (non-Kipchoge) marathoners.
My personal intuition is that most 2:05-low guys can almost certainly run 27-low with a few months of specific training [certainly, the marathon time is stronger; I am talking about a marathoner moving down, the way Kiptum would]. Similarly, if you can break 2:10, you can probably break 28, or otherwise come really close. 2:14 guys can run 29-low, and 2:18 guys can run 30-low. On the other end, anyone breaking 2:03 would be well into the 26's. And I don't see any of these are being substantially easier/harder than the others.
All of this corresponds to a 26-low 10k time for a "typical" 2:00:35 guy given a few months specific training. But maybe your intuition is different than mine. Or maybe you believe that Kiptum is so unique that the normal rules don't apply (I am always skeptical of these arguments). Just remember that we're dealing with a guy who wins majors by MULTIPLES MINUTES every time he runs--it wouldn't be surprising if he can drop a massive 10k time as well.
Why assume the ratio between world records would apply to the respective world record holders? It’s kind of funny you went through all that rigamarole to surmise that Kiptum could run low 26s, when it’s obvious that since Kiptum is the marathon WR holder, that applying the ratio between his marathon time and Cheptegei’s 10k would project a 26:11.00 for Kiptum - you follow?
I think 26:25-26:40 is much more likely than low 26s. That would make it extremely difficult for him to shake Ingebrigtsen before the last 800m, in my view.
You are my favorite poster on this site, but that's not what I'm doing. I'm using the ratio of world records to surmise how a particular difference between marathon times translates to a difference in 10k times. Said simply: it takes around 4.5 times as long to run a marathon as a 10k, so (1 second faster per 10k) <-> (4.5 seconds faster per marathon). It allows me to compare Kiptum to slower marathon specialists, not (directly) to 10k specialists.
[That said, there are many possible criticisms of my method, some of which I laid out. At the core, it is very hard to predict what someone can run at an off-distance without seeing them do it!]
Taking the ratio of men's world records, we have approximately:
5 seconds in a 10k <-> 23 seconds in a marathon
Or if you prefer,
1 minute in a 10k <-> 4:36 in a marathon
In other words, all else equal we would two runners who are 5 seconds apart in a 10k to be 23 seconds apart in a marathon. Of course, all else is not equal, but this isn't a terrible way to compare runners who prioritize the same event (i.e. Kiptum with other marathoners).
By this, we would expect Kiptum's 10k time to be:
10 seconds faster than a 2:01:21 guy 20 seconds faster than a 2:02:07 guy 30 seconds faster than a 2:02:53 guy 40 seconds faster than a 2:03:39 guy 50 seconds faster than a 2:04:25 guy
1 minute faster than a 2:05:11 guy 2 minutes faster than a 2:09:47 guy 3 minutes faster than a 2:14:23 guy 4 minutes faster than a 2:18:59 guy
Again, this isn't perfect, and Kiptum is unique by any standard. But there's a tendency to estimate HOW MUCH BETTER Kiptum is than other (non-Kipchoge) marathoners.
My personal intuition is that most 2:05-low guys can almost certainly run 27-low with a few months of specific training [certainly, the marathon time is stronger; I am talking about a marathoner moving down, the way Kiptum would]. Similarly, if you can break 2:10, you can probably break 28, or otherwise come really close. 2:14 guys can run 29-low, and 2:18 guys can run 30-low. On the other end, anyone breaking 2:03 would be well into the 26's. And I don't see any of these are being substantially easier/harder than the others.
All of this corresponds to a 26-low 10k time for a "typical" 2:00:35 guy given a few months specific training. But maybe your intuition is different than mine. Or maybe you believe that Kiptum is so unique that the normal rules don't apply (I am always skeptical of these arguments). Just remember that we're dealing with a guy who wins majors by MULTIPLES MINUTES every time he runs--it wouldn't be surprising if he can drop a massive 10k time as well.
There is no specific 10K training for a marathoner. If a marathoner is in top fitness he is ready to run his fastest possible 10000m.
Not complicated. The faster guy has a lot more ways to win.
I love the notion of Jakob being dropped. I suppose Kipyegon will be dropped when she moves up to 10,000 and beyond.
So according to you, Laros would beat Jacob at 5000? I don’t think so. Maybe one day. Faster runners get dropped often. It seems odd that you don’t grasp this.
Instead of comparing myself against another athlete, I’ve just used my marathon PB from 2022 to generate a half marathon prediction in 2023, and it stated it would be only 6 seconds slower than it actually was. Also, good comments about my performance and history:
'Given the information provided, it is clear that ???'s performances in the marathon and the half marathon have been fairly consistent but not at the top of the field. His best half marathon time is ???, achieved in ??? in 2021. His 3000-meter and 5000-meter times, while decent, suggest a good level of endurance but do not necessarily translate to elite half marathon times. (hahaha, ok) Predicted Finish and Marks: ???, 3X years old - ??? Based on the data, my prediction for ???'s finish in the hypothetical half marathon would be with a slight improvement over his personal best, given his age and assuming he is at his prime. This prediction is made considering that the 3X-year-old would likely have maintained his conditioning and perhaps even improved his race strategy and speed endurance, potentially leading to a modest improvement in his half marathon time. Now, let's analyze why he would potentially finish in this time: ??? has shown a capacity for long-distance running with consistent marathon finishes. However, his marathon times are not particularly fast when considering elite standards. His best marathon time of ??? from ??? in 2022 suggests he has good endurance but lacks the speed that top marathoners possess. (LOL) For the half marathon, his best time of ??? in ??? in 2021 is solid but not indicative of a top finisher in a highly competitive field. Given that this time is his personal best and assuming some improvement due to training and race conditions, a slight improvement is plausible. His 3000-meter and 5000-meter times show that he has some speed, but these times are not exceptional for an elite athlete specializing in distances 10k and below. This further supports the idea that while he has decent speed, it may not be enough to translate into a significant improvement in his half marathon time. It's also important to note that as athletes age, while they may lose some speed, they can often maintain or even improve their endurance. At 3X, ??? would be at an age where maintaining speed becomes more challenging, but his experience and endurance could help him achieve a time close to or slightly better than his personal best. Without additional competitors to compare ??? to, it's difficult to make a harsh judgment. However, based on the information given, a modest improvement in his half marathon time is the most reasonable prediction. His finish time of ??? would reflect both his history of performances and the natural progression of an athlete who has likely focused on improving endurance and efficiency over time.'
So, thanks a lot for this! I know I’m not answering the question of the OP, but I wanted to express my gratitude to habs. I think you should open a new thread to promote this tool to others...
But I guess it takes wheels and an insane endurance.
Kiptum obviously has wheels, but I highly doubt he could go much lower than 27 flat.
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Correct.
It is only January, but Rubio saying that Kiptum only has 27-flat 10k ability may prove to be the dumbest post of the year.
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Correct.
It is only January, but Rubio saying that Kiptum only has 27-flat 10k ability may prove to be the dumbest post of the year.
It is NOT even close to the “dumbest post” this week. I do believe Kiptum can run about 26:40 or slightly faster BUT I don’t think Kipchoge can run under 27 now. IF someone said Kiptum could run 26:10 currently that would be a more idiotic assertion than saying he can only run 27:00.
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