Valby running steeple?

I'm not an experienced steepler but there is more injury risk, particularly given the fact that she had a pretty significant foot injury. There is a lot of jarring and high impact. I believe that she would be very good at the event but the risks will need to be weighed.

An acquaintance of mine from way back in the day (Mark Croghan) is a 3-time Olympian in the steeple and represented the US in 4 World Championships. It seemed as if he always had some sort of an injury tweak going on but IIRC, he had a fairly long pro career of about 10 years.

I love watching Markezich run. She has a huge upside and seems to be getting a lot better over time as she matures. I'm really looking forward to seeing how her career evolves. She'll be one of the top US pros over the next 5-10 years, IMHO.

Not true for Wiley at all. She ran 1:57.64 and 3:59.17 at age 19, the #3 and #2 times by an American this year respectively. It shouldn’t be surprising at all if she makes the team for Paris.

Wiley has a pretty good chance of making the Paris team. I believe that she has a better chance at the 800 than the 1500 but I am still unsure of her top end in that event. To get down to Mu's range I would think that she needs a faster 400 but then I look at an athlete like Keely Hodgkinson and see what she has done with a 400 PR in the high 51s. I do believe that Hodgkinson's best event as she matures is going to be the 1500 and that is sort of what I am thinking about Wiley. In the immediate future I see Wiley as better in the 800, or should I say I feel her best shot at making Paris is the 800, but down the road I see her best bet as the 1500. That is all based on my supposition that she does not have the 400 speed to be truly elite in the 800 at the international level. When I say "truly elite," I am talking about her getting down to the Mu/Hodgkinson/Moraa range of 1:55ish.

In order, I see Wiley with the best chance of making a Paris team, followed by Markezich, Valby/Tuohy.

I'll give Markezich a slight edge over Valby just due to the fact that she has more experience in the steeple. If Valby is a fast study in the steeple, she'll have shot at making it. In the longer term, I'll give Tuohy & Valby about an equal chance of making the 5000 team at some point for either the Olympics or World Championships but I just can't see it happening for Paris.

Tuohy would also would make a decent steepler, IMHO. She has not attempted it to my knowledge but she does have the required athleticism and the 3000 speed to compete in the event. I'm not sure that she has any desire to go that route, though.

Her doing steeple would continue the pattern of the US womens steeple having the most attractive distance runners.

Though she has the height, 3k-5k speed, and stamina (steeple being similar to 10000m in difficulty), I wouldn't see the steeple as a good bet for an oft-injured runner who can't go above 30 mpw without injury.

At 5"4" Tuohy seems a little short for the steeple. Valby is 5'9". Top steeplers are typically taller - Coburn 5'8", Wayment 5'7", Quigley 5'8", Frerichs 5'7". (Granted Gear is 5'4" so there are exceptions).

Gear has a lot of potential in steeple if she can bring up her endurance and keep with a fast pace from the start. She beat Wayment twice, but faltered on the global stage. She clearly has the closing speed though, and had the 14th best time in the world this season.

Markezich (and Tuohy, Valby) have upside in their events also because none of them live and train at altitude yet. Valby trains in the heat, which helps somewhat (this will benefit her at the trials). But, their competitors in steeple / 5k all train at altitude.

As I recall Markezich needs work on her form and better getting her steps down. She is a long way away from being near the top of NCAA level in terms of time, but Napolean's form over the barriers and water seemed better than the vast majority of F NCAA runners.

Allie Ostrander is 5’1” I believe and she won three NCAA steeple titles. Also made one WC team. I also remember an NCAA championship a couple of years ago where an even shorter athlete from Air Force won it, and she was competing against Rainsberger who is close to 6’0”.

Keep in mind there are three distinct levels of performance, with some overlap, being discussed, whether it’s top NCAA, making USA Teams, or competition on the world stage.

Yes, I see Touhy having the capability to move to steeple more that Valby. Valby will be more in line for the 10000m, but likely not for next year. With her injury history, I think Valby going to the steeple would be a big risk, and it will take a bit of both training and experience to be successful at 10000m anyway.

If Monson and Cranny both do 10000m, then one spot might be available - but Valby shouldn't be under pressure to get one of them. Give her time to develop - so many of you are in so much of a hurry (hope most of you don't coach).

Touhy has the capacity to do either steeple (strong physique) or move to 10000m - but she will need to learn the steeple IF she chooses to go in that direction and that will not get her on the team next year - she is neither that good nor the other American runners that bad.

Wiley has the best chance of making a team next year, in either the 1500m (4th this year) if Mu doesn't do it, or the 800m if she can run the rounds. But that isn't a cakewalk even with her 1.57.64 (in a paced race). She too could possibly be a good steeplechaser, but she is close in the 8/15 so what is her incentive to step back and learn a different event? If it doesn't go well, then she will have wasted time. Barringer/Simpson started out as a steeplechaser before moving to the 1500m, and Wiley is faster (at a young age) at 800m.

It always comes down to choices, and some people may not want to do the steeple regardless of what the LR pundits think. It isn't a marquee event, and there is no way that getting a medal is easy these days with the Africans involved (even if some get popped along the way).

Regarding ‘upside’, the epigenetic expressions beneficial to long-distance running take years to develop.

As a sophomore in high school, Tuohy said a good day was to get up before breakfast and run a 10-miler, then take a hike later, then hit the gym later in the afternoon. That sounds like the training of a high-level collegiate and/or pro.

So it’s not too surprising to see some collegiates, that only seriously started training when they got to college, close the gap.

I wouldn't just assume that Tuohy isn't a threat to make the team next year because she had a poor NCAA outdoor championships and a disappointing performance at nationals in xc. She ran 8:35 3k last year, so she's a very good bet to be in sub-8:30 shape by trials and she has an excellent kick for the 5000m.

I agree with this. Runners go through off periods; look at Cranny. Tuohy ran 8:35 without ever having trained at altitude, would not be surprised if she goes under 8:30.

Absolutely, you can’t deny the physics. Valby is placing approx 2.5x her body weight in a 3000m for each step (disregarding how she plants heel and toe which I can’t completely tell from her videos).

she will be placing approx 4.5x her body weight on a steeplechase and approx 4.75x on a water barrier.

Many articles studying the biomechanics have concluded the increase impact force in connected to a higher injury rate. So she has a higher probability but does every other steeplechaser! Hope that helps.

Allie did make one WC team. Sadly after that her ED struggles derailed her career. I’ll always be a fan though. Hope she does well on the trails. The stuff she did at Mount Marathon when she was in high school was legendary.

She was incredible, humble and tough. After USA’s, a new coach took over, and then for two weeks, she went to altitude for the first time, prior to the World Champs.

Sorry, the link:

As a true freshman, in September 2015, Ostrander won the U20 World Mountain Running Championships in Betws-y-Coed, Wales, UK.

A month later, she won Nuttycombe (called Adidas Invite back then) in 19:19!!! (It is said to have been a shorter version of the course Valby went 19:17 on this past season.)