Assuming Valby races and gets sub 15 shape pro competition she definitely goes under 15 and it's more of a question how far under. I think she can contend with pros up to 14:40 in the right race. Alicia Monson's existence let's me think there's a possibility a less speed oriented athlete could succeed at 5000m. I have to imagine Valby is currently on par with athletes like sisson/kelatiwhen they went sub 15 and they were both low 15's in college.
Ironically Tuohy would seem like the best candidate to go 14:3x coming out of college based on her race style and 1500m/3k strength but maybe she doesn't have the same engine as Valby to utilize that type of speed. I just wish we knew if she was truly maxed out running 15:03 last year or if that was the beginning of the end for the season.
I know Wiley is way more speed oriented than those two but she's another I could see making the leap to sub 15 shape. But she's not even remotely close to being challenged aerobically in the naia and probably trains more like a professional running the 8/15.
There are no women in the US who have gone sub 14:50 that do not train at altitude. Tuohy (sadly) will not get there unless she starts training at altitude, and doubtful Valby will as well.
Monson made her big drop after moving to altitude full time, and then dropped again after two years at altitude.....
The BU opener is an odd race. Rather than any rust buster, it's a balls to the wall race using the tail end of xc fitness. The teams that run hard here start the post xc break right after the BU race.
The idea is to knock out either the 5k or 3k indoor qualifier very early. If you look at recent results, this strategy has become so popular that about 75% of qualifiers for indoor 3&5 come from this one meet. Get your popcorn.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
What are you talking about? Considering how she runs in cross, Valby could probably come in and solo a 15-flat right now. She's obviously absolutely fine with front-running, she's a freaking metronome, and I doubt she'd have too much trouble running steady 36s for a long time right now.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
The top 16 times qualify for the indoor 5000. Last year 12 of those times including the top 3 were set at the BU December meet. The 16th best time was 15:40.41 but there were a couple scratches so 15:42.48 was the cutoff.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
What are you talking about? Considering how she runs in cross, Valby could probably come in and solo a 15-flat right now. She's obviously absolutely fine with front-running, she's a freaking metronome, and I doubt she'd have too much trouble running steady 36s for a long time right now.
Trying to meet delusional fan expectations is a setup for athletes to get injured. They have their own internal battles; don’t expect your fantasies to be satisfied.
I would expect Valby to first put in weeks of specific work, certainly not rushing it, with ample bare-foot running work included, before really letting it rip on the track.
I would expect Valby to first put in weeks of specific work, certainly not rushing it, with ample bare-foot running work included, before really letting it rip on the track.
Were talking 30s flys, wicket drills, high knees (100-ups), hurdle drills, etc. It takes weeks to work up into that stuff, and I doubt Valby does much of it for XC.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding there is no time-based “qualifier” which they need to hit. Rather, they take something like the top 28(?) with the best time. Valby could tempo a 5k and make that cut.
I’ve looked at results going back years for this particular race, and I’ve yet to find a case where a sub-15 min race was plausible. I stated earlier what conditions would be required, and I just don’t see an American Pro wanting to come in at this time of year and pace it for another pro or collegiate to race that fast.
If Valby wants to come up and have some fun with her teammates and race before break, I wouldn’t expect anything more than that, but to get in practice racing on a track.
The top 16 times qualify for the indoor 5000. Last year 12 of those times including the top 3 were set at the BU December meet. The 16th best time was 15:40.41 but there were a couple scratches so 15:42.48 was the cutoff.
Valby could tempo a 15:30 on the track, WHEN she is actually properly prepared for the track.
Trying to meet delusional fan expectations is a setup for athletes to get injured. They have their own internal battles; don’t expect your fantasies to be satisfied.
I would expect Valby to first put in weeks of specific work, certainly not rushing it, with ample bare-foot running work included, before really letting it rip on the track.
What?!
If she runs BU it will be because the coach wants her to get an indoor qualifier for nationals #1, and then if they want to, to go for the indoor record. Pretty simple.
Trying to meet delusional fan expectations is a setup for athletes to get injured. They have their own internal battles; don’t expect your fantasies to be satisfied.
I would expect Valby to first put in weeks of specific work, certainly not rushing it, with ample bare-foot running work included, before really letting it rip on the track.
What?!
If she runs BU it will be because the coach wants her to get an indoor qualifier for nationals #1, and then if they want to, to go for the indoor record. Pretty simple.
Valby does NOT need to race to peak fitness to get the Indoor Qualifier, so I wouldn’t recommend that she goes out there and try and race to her peak fitness. Setting up some stupid ‘revenge race’, at this juncture, serves her no benefit.
If Tuohy wanted to run a 5k at BU, then I’d put Valby in the 3k, or vice versa. There is no pressure.
Athletes should go out and do some races for practices, rather than just run the bare minimum, forcing them to always be swinging for the fences when they do race.
Trying to meet delusional fan expectations is a setup for athletes to get injured. They have their own internal battles; don’t expect your fantasies to be satisfied.
I would expect Valby to first put in weeks of specific work, certainly not rushing it, with ample bare-foot running work included, before really letting it rip on the track.
What?!
If she runs BU it will be because the coach wants her to get an indoor qualifier for nationals #1, and then if they want to, to go for the indoor record. Pretty simple.
Valby stated in her interview that she plans to graduate after the spring semester, so there is no pressure, at this point in time, to hurry up and get the indoor record.
If she runs BU it will be because the coach wants her to get an indoor qualifier for nationals #1, and then if they want to, to go for the indoor record. Pretty simple.
Valby does NOT need to race to peak fitness to get the Indoor Qualifier, so I wouldn’t recommend that she goes out there and try and race to her peak fitness. Setting up some stupid ‘revenge race’, at this juncture, serves her no benefit.
If Tuohy wanted to run a 5k at BU, then I’d put Valby in the 3k, or vice versa. There is no pressure.
Athletes should go out and do some races for practices, rather than just run the bare minimum, forcing them to always be swinging for the fences when they do race.
I know there is the opposite coaching philosophy that says “Athletes should only race when they are ready to give it their all.” Obviously, when it comes to heats, the objective is NOT to give it their all.
Sadly, we don’t yet have in this country the situation where several of the very top prospects are all gathered together, and get to go out and train with each other several times a week, at altitude, essentially practicing racing in the process, like they do in Ethiopia.
The likely reason we don’t is because of economics; the sponsors probably don’t want to pony up the money to make that happen in the USA. And USATF gives their CEO millions of dollars per year in salary, so their coffers are drained.
Sadly, we don’t yet have in this country the situation where several of the very top prospects are all gathered together, and get to go out and train with each other several times a week, at altitude, essentially practicing racing in the process, like they do in Ethiopia.
The likely reason we don’t is because of economics; the sponsors probably don’t want to pony up the money to make that happen in the USA. And USATF gives their CEO millions of dollars per year in salary, so their coffers are drained.
For those that haven’t yet seen it, this is how they do it in Ethiopia:
Today we are back at the iconic Legatafo Track in Addis Ababa for a 5x1500m Workout (4min recovery). Gudaf Tsegay and Lemlem Hailu recently placed 1st in the...
Sadly, we don’t yet have in this country the situation where several of the very top prospects are all gathered together, and get to go out and train with each other several times a week, at altitude, essentially practicing racing in the process, like they do in Ethiopia.
The likely reason we don’t is because of economics; the sponsors probably don’t want to pony up the money to make that happen in the USA. And USATF gives their CEO millions of dollars per year in salary, so their coffers are drained.
For those that haven’t yet seen it, this is how they do it in Ethiopia:
I really doubt either run, valby hasn't done this kindof thing in the past, and It doesn't make sense for Thouy to push through when she is clearly not 100%
Touhy said she was in the best shape of her life before the race…
Could be serious... Maybe lupis, or Lou Gehrig's disease... Or ebola... Anyone notice any rashes? It would stink If she has to give a speech like Lou Gehrig... With all that echo...
I just about got narrative whiplash when it went from “Is In Better Shape Than She’s Ever Been” to she's Willis Reed limping onto the court.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Markezich ran a nifty 8:50 at this meet last year, and after becoming a 9:17 steepler and her showing at XC Nats I think she could steal the headline if the two golden children don’t show.
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