you creeps!! Yeah, home prices in CA are going down because nobody wants to live by the ocean and mountains and have access to everything one could want. Maybe in a week or so home prices will drop 50%. Hahahahahahahha! You idiots! Gonna wait forever?? Hahaahhahahhahaha! Please let me know when this “bubble “ bursts. For reference you jerk offs said the bubble would burst in 2010. Guess what? Prices doubled in Irvine $550 K to over $1 mil on a small cottage style home since then . Hahahahhaahha. Keep dreaming suckers. And that’s on the low end. Hahahahahaha🖕
Lol. You live there to be by the sea in which you cant swim and to live by the mountains that are arid and uninteresting. Cali may have had some inviting factors decades ago but is a shythole now unfortunately. Including the politics. Don't see any benefit to living in that dump. Nebraska is much nicer.
This. House prices are stable right now, just not a lot of houses selling.
When interest rates drop, house prices will go up another 15-25%.
I'm a bull on RE and american in general, but why would housing prices go up if interest rates drop? Only way interest rates drop is if the economy starts to cool and more likely crash because the FED tends to be more reactive than proactive. I get that properties become more affordable (on a monthly basis), but there is likely less money sloshing around. No historical data to support interest rate drops leading to spike in housing prices happened once in 2020 which was all around weird.
I really wish it was possible to post an image. But look at the Case Schiller graph. You can draw a slightly curved line all the way from 1990 to 2020. The actual trace diverges from the actual trace between 2002 and 2012 (the 2007 bubble) and then again in 2020. It never re-converges after 2020. It almost certainly WILL reconverge. When prices drop, however, it will likely be within the context of a larger recession - unemployment, stock market drop, as well as real estate pullback. When will this happen? Almost certainly in the next 5 years. It will take guts to buy in that environment, but if you hold and are willing to do so, you can save a packet.
Many people don't remember what it was like in 2008. I remember watching the stock market crash along with my savings. Property went down and down with no sign of ever coming back up. That WILL happen again. However, it's hard to have the courage to invest. Just like now so many people on this thread think property prices will never dip again, when they do crash, people will think they'll never go back up.
Previous poster is right that it doesn't make sense to "microtime" the market. But I think it's clear now is not a great time to buy and if you can wait a couple years, it makes sense to do so.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
People have been saying this since 2012 and prices have at least doubled in most decent areas, if not tripled. So even if prices went down 25% tomorrow, they'd be back at where they were in 2019, and most people were complaining about high housing prices back then as well.
Our population is increasing and housing is not keeping up. This isn't a bubble, it's a legitimate shortage which is driving prices up.
It's insanely expensive to build now between material/labor cost, permits, not to mention hassles with NIMBYs and other special-interest groups. The only construction I've seen in my area in the last 3-4 years has been massive "luxury" apartment complexes. Very few single family homes and townhouses.
Also, 8-10% interest rates were pretty standard in the 1990s and were much higher in the 1970s-1980s.
It's been proven that the best thing you can do is to buy a house when you need it and when you plan to live in it long term. Don't try to time the market. Don't buy a house now in case prices go up later. Don't be a miserable renter because you're gambling that prices will go down in a few years. An extra $20k in price shouldn't be a dealbreaker over a 30-year mortgage. If it is, you're probably not in a position to buy yet. Good luck.
This sounds so much like what I said in 2006 when I bought my first house. At that time, I couldn't imagine prices dropping. I bought a house for 300K, and within 2-3 years, it lost 60% of its value. I was finally able to sell it in 2019 at a small profit, but buying that house was the most financially catastrophic decision of my life.
I put 30% down, didn't lose my job and my salary and had a fixed rate mortgage. If you must buy now, I strongly suggest putting AT LEAST 10% down, not buying beyond what you can afford, and getting a fixed rate mortgage. If rates go down, you can refinance.
But I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a significant correction. I certainly wouldn't be in a rush to buy a house right now.
And had you held onto that house until now, 2023, your gain would have been considerably larger.
Plus by owning you avoided 13 years of rent payments.
Say you avoided $1500/month rent payments.
$1500/mo x 12 months times 13 years = $234,000 in avoided rent payments
As long as you didn't sell in 2009 down 60% it was just a reduction in house value, not a loss in real dollars
2008 wasn't very long ago, do you all have that bad of a memory? Sure, it was cheap to buy a house then but the counter point to that was all of the unemployment and people that had to take pay cuts. A housing crash will negatively impact just about everyone even if they don't own a house.
This sounds so much like what I said in 2006 when I bought my first house. At that time, I couldn't imagine prices dropping. I bought a house for 300K, and within 2-3 years, it lost 60% of its value. I was finally able to sell it in 2019 at a small profit, but buying that house was the most financially catastrophic decision of my life.
I put 30% down, didn't lose my job and my salary and had a fixed rate mortgage. If you must buy now, I strongly suggest putting AT LEAST 10% down, not buying beyond what you can afford, and getting a fixed rate mortgage. If rates go down, you can refinance.
But I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a significant correction. I certainly wouldn't be in a rush to buy a house right now.
And had you held onto that house until now, 2023, your gain would have been considerably larger.
Plus by owning you avoided 13 years of rent payments.
Say you avoided $1500/month rent payments.
$1500/mo x 12 months times 13 years = $234,000 in avoided rent payments
As long as you didn't sell in 2009 down 60% it was just a reduction in house value, not a loss in real dollars
Yes, but the point is, I would have been much better off if I'd just waited a couple years.
I actually went back and looked at my records, and I sold it for 540K in 2021, not 2019, so I did pretty well thanks to great timing SELLING it. So yes - you're right, timing the market is critical!
However, I didn't do as well as you think because I got married and had kids, and my little starter house was way too small for my family. It was also in a bad school district. (At 2006 prices at age 26, I couldn't even think of affording a good school district.) So I moved out in 2014. Prices were still low, so I rented it for 7 years until selling it in 2021. Therefore, I had to pay tax on my rent profits (less property tax) as well as capital gains on the sale profit. Most people will find their job / family / other needs will change and they will not be able to stay in the first house they buy indefinitely.
I am all for home ownership. But I think the original poster would be best served to wait for the inevitable drop in property prices and buy then, not now, unless he has a compelling reason that he wants to own a home right now.
One more thing - also had to pay lots of maintenance. In my period of home ownership, I had flooding and water issues, and had to pay to put in a better drainage system on the property. Also other minor stuff - hot water heater, furnace, painting, roof repairs, etc.
Houses for $300K? I wish it was like that here. There are no houses where I live for under $850K. Luckily I bought my place a little over 20 years ago.
Prices have already dropped some the past two years I believe. In 2020 and 2021 they went up a ton but have cooled off a bit since then. They may drop some but unless there is a housing crash or wider economic collapse (which doesn't look at all likely despite people screaming that it's gonna happen nonstop the past two years, economy has actually been doing quite well the past two years), prices probably aren't gonna drop a ton.
But for sure waiting until interest rates come back down makes sense.
Housing prices in popular areas always go up over time because people want to move to the popular areas, so don't expect a big drop...ever. That 130k house that went to 300k ain't ever going back anywhere near 130k, and in a few years it'll be more expensive than it is now. In general, in the real estate game waiting doesn't pay off, unless your income or investments are increasing at a faster rate than housing is.
Prices have already dropped some the past two years I believe. In 2020 and 2021 they went up a ton but have cooled off a bit since then. They may drop some but unless there is a housing crash or wider economic collapse (which doesn't look at all likely despite people screaming that it's gonna happen nonstop the past two years, economy has actually been doing quite well the past two years), prices probably aren't gonna drop a ton.
But for sure waiting until interest rates come back down makes sense.
Housing prices in popular areas always go up over time because people want to move to the popular areas, so don't expect a big drop...ever. That 130k house that went to 300k ain't ever going back anywhere near 130k, and in a few years it'll be more expensive than it is now. In general, in the real estate game waiting doesn't pay off, unless your income or investments are increasing at a faster rate than housing is.
Exactly. The big scary "average" drop figures from 2008 represent prices falling off a cliff in crappy areas, while in desirable places prices just flatlined for a year or two.
I know it's not personal. But I refuse. I'll wait until I can pay cash or the housing prices correct down 25%.
You may say these prices are low but I'm in a very low COL area with meager salaries, and taxes are about $7-9k/year. So it's not affordable at all.
I mean you just gotta stop buying avocado toast & completely ignore that housing rates are higher today than they were for people who bought 20-30 years ago.
even if the prices go down, they don't go all the way down (unless your town turns into Detroit) but the market will go up 5 steps, then back 3. That's still a 2 step gain.
You have to have the guts to buy low and sell high. That means you need to be prepared to move to what is now an area consider undesirable, or an area over looked. So you might need to look at what MS has to offer, maybe some rust belt cities (although most of them have turned things around), Appalachian mountain towns, etc...
With telecommuting you can work from any where as long as you have reliable net access. So check your ego and move to WV, or MS.
I'm a bull on RE and american in general, but why would housing prices go up if interest rates drop? Only way interest rates drop is if the economy starts to cool and more likely crash because the FED tends to be more reactive than proactive. I get that properties become more affordable (on a monthly basis), but there is likely less money sloshing around. No historical data to support interest rate drops leading to spike in housing prices happened once in 2020 which was all around weird.
I really wish it was possible to post an image. But look at the Case Schiller graph. You can draw a slightly curved line all the way from 1990 to 2020. The actual trace diverges from the actual trace between 2002 and 2012 (the 2007 bubble) and then again in 2020. It never re-converges after 2020. It almost certainly WILL reconverge. When prices drop, however, it will likely be within the context of a larger recession - unemployment, stock market drop, as well as real estate pullback. When will this happen? Almost certainly in the next 5 years. It will take guts to buy in that environment, but if you hold and are willing to do so, you can save a packet.
Many people don't remember what it was like in 2008. I remember watching the stock market crash along with my savings. Property went down and down with no sign of ever coming back up. That WILL happen again. However, it's hard to have the courage to invest. Just like now so many people on this thread think property prices will never dip again, when they do crash, people will think they'll never go back up.
Previous poster is right that it doesn't make sense to "microtime" the market. But I think it's clear now is not a great time to buy and if you can wait a couple years, it makes sense to do so.
We are due for a recession and a pullback in home prices, but then again we have been due for several years. The tops are much higher to time than the bottoms. You'll be close enough to the bottom when the FED raises interest rates again after lowering them. Really, it's a month or two past the bottom, but it will be close enough.
I would guess you are right that housing prices flatline or decrease slightly in the near future, but the cost of building has skyrocketed as well, which makes it hard for supply to increase.
These things take a while to work out, 2008 was the "crash" but housing market bottom didn't occur until 2011-2012. The economy takes a while to work itself out either way.
Determining about a purchase based on comparative pricing should not be the sole criteria. What is desired from a purchase is ultimately more important. If cost is more important than ownership, then don't buy, otherwise get what you want. It goes for running shoes as well as houses. If you expect a shoe to get you to a PR and it doesn't, then maybe you wasted your money, but if you get a 10% improvement on your next race, then nice move. I paid a premium for some real estate when the market was really competitive, kicked myself for months. But now a year later even with real estate prices falling the money spent means nothing anymore compared to the pleasure of the ownership.
I refuse to invest in the stock market today when the Dow Jones is at 33,203, when the Dow Jones was at 19,173 on March 20th, 2020. Do you think I am some sort of idiot?
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